Latest Polls Show Biden Widening Lead

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Yes. I wouldn’t be surprised now whichever way it goes.
 
I’d rather be ahead than behind whatever the case, but polls taken now, on the heels of COVID and riots are relatively meaningless, especially 5.5 months out of an election. Trump still maintains a sizeable enthusiasm gap, which historically would portend victory (especially if the current gap holds). Biden has to excite people enough to get to the polls; animus for Trump won’t likely be enough.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/02/does-joe-biden-have-an-enthusiasm-problem/
 
I read an article by an analyst who came to the conclusion Trump would win. There wasn’t much to it but he said it’s mostly because he’s incumbent and they almost always win.
 
LOL polls.
I used to believe in polls until November 2016 and now I know they’re bogus.

The election will go the way it goes and literally nothing would surprise me at this point
 
0Scarlett_nidiyilii said:
LOL polls.
I used to believe in polls until November 2016 and now I know they’re bogus.
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This attitude always makes me scratch my head. No one ever claims that polls are a perfect predictor or an exact science. Even the polling company will tell you that it’s not like an infallible prediction of the future. That the polls were (mostly) wrong in 2016 doesn’t mean we ignore them entirely. We just recognize that they’re not the be all end all.

I mean, if the weather forecast was wrong for a given day, would you conclude that meteorology is “bogus”?
 
I was nearly %100 sure that Trump would be re-elected a few months ago.

I am just beginning to hope that maybe he will not. He is still the incumbent.
 
RolandThompsonGunner said:
This attitude always makes me scratch my head. No one ever claims that polls are a perfect predictor or an exact science. Even the polling company will tell you that it’s not like an infallible prediction of the future. That the polls were (mostly) wrong in 2016 doesn’t mean we ignore them entirely. We just recognize that they’re not the be all end all.

I mean, if the weather forecast was wrong for a given day, would you conclude that meteorology is “bogus”?
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That is it! My new mantra!

“METEOROLOGY IS BOGUS!”
 
RolandThompsonGunner said:
wrong in 2016
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Clinton led by a lot going into the final 2 weeks. Then the Comey letter. Clinton was ahead by 3% but won by 2%.

With the electoral college you have to go with the odds. Biden could mathematically get 30 million more popular votes but still lose the election. Trump voters in blue states might as well stay home.
 
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Biden has benefitted from two back to back painful events for the nation, and been able to stay relatively under the radar with limited scripted appearances; I suspect the DNC is not yearning to cut Biden loose given his propensity for saying potentially damaging things or gaffes (and I suspect the RNC hopes to limit those from the President). This likely the low point of Trump’s presidency in terms of polling (just my opinion). There is a lot of fresh, raw negative emotion on people’s minds right now, and that is never good for an incumbent.

He still has the advantage of incumbency, and we have yet to have conventions debates, or full-on campaign ads. Plus, a lot of biden’s support will ultimately be the “anyone but Trump” vote (of which there may indeed be a lot). The enthusiasm gap is unlikely to change the ways polls due, simply because these are now two known quantities. Anyone not excited or motivated by Trump or Biden is unlikely to have a light bulb go off now.

The May jobs numbers blew expectations out of the water on the heels of a crushing April report, so a lot depends on how the summer goes. Will the economy begin to rebound? Will another unforeseen event occur like we are seeing now? It was late May of 2012 if memory serves when Romney’s comments about the 47% of the country not voting for him came out, and hurt him.

Most betting sites have Trump as a slight betting favorite, though that has come down considerably in the last few months. They look at a variety of things, to include polling data.

Personally, any election with Trump is hard to gauge. He is so volatile in terms of the emotions he engenders either way, and is hard to predict. I think he is a slight favorite still at this point, but could see a Biden win as well and not be shocked. As I said, I’d rather be ahead than behind even if the polls mean very little in early June.
 
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RolandThompsonGunner said:
I mean, if the weather forecast was wrong for a given day, would you conclude that meteorology is “bogus”?
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Aw c’mon…everybody jokes about weather predictions 🙂

But seriously…I never in my life saw so many polls and so many pundits and commentators get it so wrong as they did in 2016.
I simply don’t trust polling anymore.
 
If you drive around my condo complex, you would think Biden is the sure winner too. There are at least 20 Biden for President flags and only two Trump flags. The rest of the Trump supporters I know don’t put out political flags, they put out American flags.
 
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