But that’s not all science is. Chemistry, for example, is much more like this than, again for example, cosmology. Science is not reducible to statistics but I would grant that uncertainty is always part of science in that humility is part of the discipline.
My fields are biology and research psychology. I was under the impression that you were asking me to “write a little more on this” and that’s exactly what I did - I wrote a *little *more on this. I can’t fit everything I know about science into a post and I only know the tip of the iceberg. Science’s job is not to prove - it is to attempt to explain phenomena.
I don’t remember who said this but someone was explaining this mindset (that it’s obvious the sun revolves around Earth because it ‘looks that way’) and he asked ‘what should it look like if Earth revolved around the sun?’
And that shows that there are at least two possibilities, doesn’t it? So which is right? Both? Neither? Are there any other possibilities?
So you’re saying empirical, scientific observation has not proved Earth orbits the sun or that Earth is roughly spherical in shape? The above post hoc ergo propter hot issue is why we conduct double blind trials. If the vast majority of the people who took the aspirin had their headache go away and the the majority of those who got the placebo didn’t then isn’t it fair to say that we’ve shown (i.e. proved) that aspirin is more effective at treating a headache than taking a sugar pill? Even more so every time this experiment is repeated.
That is exactly what I’m saying. There is always uncertainty in science. Always. Using terms like “roughly spherical” makes me feel very uncomfortable. Do you think it’s been proven that the earth is “roughly spherical?” Do you use “roughly spherical” as your operational definition?
It doesn’t matter if every single subject in the experimental group who had a headache took aspirin and reported that the headache went away and every single subject in the control group reported their headache did not go away… It isn’t proof. There could be confounding variables such as experimenter bias, an inability to choose subjects for the control and experimental groups randomly (although larger n’s are useful to alleviate this problem they don’t make it go away). How can anyone know all the factors going on? There’s the obvious one of presence of headache and degree of severity of headache (how does one objectively measure another person’s pain level?), gender, age, ethnic background, marital status, health (general health, physical fitness, presence of illness within the last month, last three months, last six months, last year), SES, geographic area (where do the subjects live and where is the research being conducted in terms of elevation, etc.), height, weight, what subjects had for breakfast, if subjects ate breakfast at all, other meals, snacks, if liquids have been ingested, what type of liquids have been ingested, whether subjects need to urinate and feel more stress because of that, presence of caffeine, amounts of blood glucose, amounts of blood amino acids (every single one), unidentified stressors, identified stressors which may have different results health-wise in different subjects, presence of other medications, plasma amounts of these other medications, subjects’ ability to reduce headache by relaxation and biofeedback and whether this is conscious or subconscious), subjects lying about medications or any of the factors listed above, subjects lying to gain perceived approval from the researchers (such as stating one’s headache is gone when there was no headache to begin with or there is still a headache), air pollution, etc. etc. etc. You can’t get rid of all the confounding factors no matter how hard you try. Why do you think so many researchers use male pups? It’s because at least gender is controlled and males are not nearly as complicated as females physiologically, and there are too many confounding factors in human subjects.
Using double-blind methods help, but they absolutely
do not ever, ever, ever remove all confounding factors. I believe I mentioned repeating research as producing more evidence. But even that can’t *prove *that taking aspirin makes a headache go away.
Aren’t the dead patients of anti-hand washing doctors proof that something that’s removed by washing hands causes disease?
Of course not! Why would that be any evidence at all? Patients died all the time. Maybe they died because of the health problem that landed them in an OR in the first place. Most of the doctors didn’t wash their hands so how could they prove that their patients died because they didn’t wash their hands? Patients died all the time, from different causes. Non-washing of hands certainly wasn’t the only factor! Patients die in hospitals. They still do, even though surgeons scrub. Nosocomial infections are a major problem in hospitals and the fact that they still are such a problem is an indication that there is still something going on (and perhaps hundreds of things going on) in the hospital environment, causing patient illness and/or death that is still unidentified.
I will not reply to any post with responses inserted into my quote.
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