Massive job unemployment

[Wyrd]

Over the next several decades up to 40% of jobs are likely to be automated.

technologyreview.com/view/519241/report-suggests-nearly-half-of-us-jobs-are-vulnerable-to-computerization/

Afterwards, it is thought that by the end of the century this could to 80%+ of jobs being automated. The first to likely go are jobs in transportation such as bus drivers, taxi drivers, delivery drivers, and truckers. In addition, this will likely have a cascading effect on other jobs in the economy like parts manufacturers.

sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/01/27/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy-by-2025-lyft-google-zack-kanter/

I know it is a bit silly to ask “what is the catholic church’s plan to deal with this?” But I think a part of the reason the church has persisted for millenia is that very simply it met some of people’s most basic and urgent needs in times of crisis. So, how do you see the Church responding if there is a very bad situation over 20 years in the US with millions likely homeless or struggling badly as the world transitions to a new economy?

 

[Neofight]

I’ve been working in an industry with automation and robotics for close to 20 years…as “old” jobs go away, “new” jobs are created.

The bigger problem is the unwillingness of laborers to invest in the education required to fill the new jobs.

There is a Employment Darwinian Effect of sorts…those who adapt will remain employed, those who don’t will not.

 

[edwest2]

A willingness to learn is required. I’ve learned a number of things about devices that did not exist 20 years ago. I think the key is mentoring. That’s right, young people spend a given amount of time of time volunteering at a company that is developing and/or using new technologies. They get hands-on experience in return.

Transitioning is the proper term. And people can even learn remotely.

Many years ago, the head of the US Patent Office suggested shutting it down since, in his view, everything that needed to be invented had been invented.

Ed

 

[TimothyH]

Luddite: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite

 

[RCIAGraduate]

I remember a book (though I can’t p(name removed by moderator)oint the title) saying how this was going to be an eventual and inevitable occurrence and that humanity would be resigned into working in the non-profit/human services/charitable sectors (or somewhere along the lines). If that would be the case, then maybe everything will end up for the better.

With that said, for now it seems like another reason to revitalize career-technical education and vocational training (invigorate and transform community colleges and adult schools?), that way people can more easily weave in and out careers. For young people, maybe it might be a good idea for them to be encouraged to develop back up or contingency career plans (like training to be a chef and a mechanic).

 

[Wyrd]

There are some differences between what is happening now and what has happened in the past. For example, machine learning algorithms are now sophisticated enough to replace many mentally intensive jobs not simply physical labor jobs. Another difference is that the automation is occuring in locations that the US already outsources work to for example China. By 2017 China will outpace the united states in deployment of robots used in the automation of work. In addition, the global economy will need to create 600 million jobs over the next 10 years to keep pace with young workers entering the workforce. This will be a difficult task even if automation is not an issue. In addition, the top 30 or so jobs in the economy by number of people employed are jobs that are a) easily automated and b) have been around the longest. Here is an interesting video that helps outline some of the differences:

m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

I can provide many additional references and sources upon request.

 

[BobCatholic]

Please. We already have massive unemployment. U6 is north of 12%. Shadowstats says unemployment is 20%+.

We have a government that not says all manufacturing jobs are to go to China, and all IT jobs go to India.

This is as designed. They want this to happen.

Globalism is requiring US workers to have third world wages and first world living expenses.

 

[Rhubarb]

This is just part of progress. Blacksmiths put the flint knappers out of business. Henry Ford started the decline of the buggy whip industry. Kerosene killed whale oil, electricity severely reduced kerosene, and green energies are starting to take off. (If I had 20,000 dollars laying around, it would be solar cells and Tesla powerwalls for my house) Like other posters said, there will always be new positions. Even Mister Bucket got job repairing the machines that make the toothpaste tube caps.

 

[edwest2]

The owners of global corporations collect data daily. They plan for short, medium and long-range solutions. And make adjustments on a regular basis. They want to make as much money as they can. That means the peasants will have jobs to buy things.

We still live in a Feudal system where the rich stay rich and the peasants are kept in their place. But I grew up in a time where “doing without” was common. Where having dessert after dinner was a once a week thing. We bought inexpensive clothes and made them last. We put a little money aside. Expensive things did not matter, but what we had was simple and nice.

Ed

 

[Theo520]

 

[BobCatholic]

That means the peasants will have jobs to buy things.

Not true. Part of the trend is a declining job market. We went from full time jobs where someone could keep a job for 30 years, to keeping a job for a few years, to now they’re talking about “the gig economy” where people are temping at jobs because full time jobs are not available.

Soon we will be asking “Will we be able to eat today?”

That’s progress?

No.

 

[edwest2]

Not true. Part of the trend is a declining job market. We went from full time jobs where someone could keep a job for 30 years, to keeping a job for a few years, to now they’re talking about “the gig economy” where people are temping at jobs because full time jobs are not available.

Soon we will be asking “Will we be able to eat today?”

That’s progress?

No.

Having read reports for decades about how global corporations operate, the fact is, they must make and sell products and services. Without people to buy things, no money is coming in. In the 1970s, plans were being made for the 1990s. The same thing is happening now.

There have been great strides in materials science, biology and engineering but we don’t see it on the news but rarely. I was just updated, today, on recent advances in bulletproof armor, for example, and exoskeletons. Young people today are not getting exposed to research science, and the applied sciences, as rapidly as they should. I mean Americans are developing these things but who understands the current applications for nanotechnology? How many kids are graduating high school?

How many foreign students are being named on the reports I’m reading? A lot. How many hours do kids in Japan spend on learning? It’s more than in the US. Jobs exist not because of cheap labor but on applied science. Ideas.

If this or any other generation only wants to wait for the wind to blow their way or are content with “make do” jobs then they will stay around the poverty line. If they work and go to school, as a lot of my generation did, they can advance and make better money. I have been taught a lot of things on the job that did not exist 20 years ago. I’m still learning, and part of it on my own time. I’m not bragging but people need to plan. They need to find out about loans and grants. And big business, as I have personally seen, will pick the best and brightest. A recent report stated that some businesses will not be hiring in 2016 because they can’t find qualified workers. Those businesses need to create on the job training or lose business or survive on lower revenues, which will make them targets for purchase by larger corporations which will turn them into satellite operations across the country. Buy low, and use their existing workforce to increase your bottom line, or go out of business.

America was once the “can do” country and I’ve personally spoken to some people who are doing specialized work that’s above my head. And most were in their early 20’s.

Unskilled labor will be harder to find but just by creating mentorship programs, kids who are willing to learn can get on the job training on their resumes instead of selling dope or stealing things or sponging off of other people.

Ed

 

[mikekle]

This is just part of progress. Blacksmiths put the flint knappers out of business. Henry Ford started the decline of the buggy whip industry. Kerosene killed whale oil, electricity severely reduced kerosene, and green energies are starting to take off. (If I had 20,000 dollars laying around, it would be solar cells and Tesla powerwalls for my house) Like other posters said, there will always be new positions. Even Mister Bucket got job repairing the machines that make the toothpaste tube caps.

But at the same time, progress is being held back (due to greed of course), Prime example would be Teslas plans for ‘hovering cars’ or really, vehicles that run on electromagnetics, Ive read about the details of these things, they were said to be mostly solid state, not having nearly as many moving complex parts as a basic 2015 car or truck, the big one though, the powers that be at his time told him the idea would not work because there is no way to meter usage of the earths magnetism…so in this case, a new type of vehicle that would be a great thing for the world is held locked up in a classified folder simply because it would be MUCH cheaper for the people???

Would it be so bad if someone created a vehicle that did not require costly fuel to operate, or need repair, replacement after so long?

It seems like they allow some progress, new things to come out and replace other things, but only when the potential for the same or greater revenue is there.

 

[LeafByNiggle]

But at the same time, progress is being held back (due to greed of course), Prime example would be Teslas plans for ‘hovering cars’ or really, vehicles that run on electromagnetics, Ive read about the details of these things, they were said to be mostly solid state, not having nearly as many moving complex parts as a basic 2015 car or truck, the big one though, the powers that be at his time told him the idea would not work because there is no way to meter usage of the earths magnetism…so in this case, a new type of vehicle that would be a great thing for the world is held locked up in a classified folder simply because it would be MUCH cheaper for the people???

Would it be so bad if someone created a vehicle that did not require costly fuel to operate, or need repair, replacement after so long?

It seems like they allow some progress, new things to come out and replace other things, but only when the potential for the same or greater revenue is there.

Don’t believe the Tesla Secret Energy Suppressed by Conspiracy Hoax.

 

[edwest2]

The government reviews and holds back patents for devices for various reasons. Get a copy of Secret Science - Federal Control of American Science and Technology by Herbert N. Foerstal. Look up The Invention Secrecy Act of 1951.

Ed

 

[LeafByNiggle]

The government reviews and holds back patents for devices for various reasons. Get a copy of Secret Science - Federal Control of American Science and Technology by Herbert N. Foerstal. Look up The Invention Secrecy Act of 1951.
Ed

That doesn’t mean this particular claim of free energy is not a hoax because it most definitely is.

 

[BobCatholic]

How many foreign students are being named on the reports I’m reading? A lot. How many hours do kids in Japan spend on learning? It’s more than in the US. Jobs exist not because of cheap labor but on applied science. Ideas.

We are graduating 2.5 times the number of Science Technology Enginnering and Math (STEM) students than jobs available to them. Getting more will just add to the unemployment line.

US students study STEM in sufficient numbers, but nobody wants to hire them.

American names could be on those reports, if they were allowed to work.

Instead, our government is being lobbied by STEM companies for more H1B and L1 visas, all while the unemployment line is filled with STEM students.

 

[LeafByNiggle]

We are graduating 2.5 times the number of Science Technology Enginnering and Math (STEM) students than jobs available to them. Getting more will just add to the unemployment line.

US students study STEM in sufficient numbers, but nobody wants to hire them.

American names could be on those reports, if they were allowed to work.

Instead, our government is being lobbied by STEM companies for more H1B and L1 visas, all while the unemployment line is filled with STEM students.

Well, the most straightforward interpretation of those facts is that STEM companies cannot find enough qualified Americans to fill those jobs.

By the way, your stats are backwards. There are 2.5 times as many STEM job postings as there are STEM graduates.

 

[BobCatholic]

Well, the most straightforward interpretation of those facts is that STEM companies cannot find enough qualified Americans to fill those jobs.

There are enough qualified Americans to do those jobs, they just don’t want to hire anyone over 40. Silicon Valley is notorious for age discrimination. They also don’t want to hire anyone outside of Silicon Valley.

The only people who really believe this are those who are trying to get more H1B visas.

By the way, your stats are backwards. There are 2.5 times as many STEM job postings as there are STEM graduates.

False.

urban.org/UploadedPDF/411562_Salzman_Science.pdf

Analysis of the flow of students up through the Science and Engineering (S&E) pipeline, when it reaches the labor market, suggests the education system produces qualified graduates far in excess of demand: S&E occupations make up only about one-twentieth of all workers, and each year there are more than three times as many S&E four-year college graduates as S&E job openings.

So, where do these highly trained people in STEM go? Not to the STEM fields!

thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/08/19/Another-Look-STEM-Crisis-America

In total, more than 11 million employees who have graduated with STEM-related degrees have chosen to work in occupations that do not require training in math, science, engineering or technology. Were there an actual shortage of labor for STEM jobs, it’s highly unlikely that figure would be so high.

programmersguild.org/factsheets/2014_pg_media_fact_sheet.pdf

Roughly 400,000 of the 1.6 million BS degrees each
year are STEM - up from 320,000 just a decade ago.
These are predominately Americans and are more
than the U.S. job market can absorb:
During the past decade STEM employment increased
by only 60,000 per year - less than the number of
foreign workers entering each year.

 

[edwest2]

We are graduating 2.5 times the number of Science Technology Enginnering and Math (STEM) students than jobs available to them. Getting more will just add to the unemployment line.

US students study STEM in sufficient numbers, but nobody wants to hire them.

American names could be on those reports, if they were allowed to work.

Instead, our government is being lobbied by STEM companies for more H1B and L1 visas, all while the unemployment line is filled with STEM students.

Interesting. So are students who are planning to go to college get this information before choosing a career? And why would the government lobby for more H1B and L1 visas because, knowing that, I would have one more reason to complain about the current Administration and one more question to ask prospective Presidential candidates?

I hope this info gets passed on to other forums with people who don’t know this and are under the impression that employment opportunities are out there.

Ed