Don’t get caught in an economic collapse which hits the stock market as it did in 2007-2009, where people saw their 401ks cut in half.
As an economist, I role my eyes every time I see this
Most of those that were “halved” were halved from their
peak, which would never have been reached without that level of equity investment. That is, if you put in $20, and it goes to $40 before crashing to $20, you haven’t “lost half” in terms of risk planning; you’ve lost the couple of bucks you could have made more safely but with no hope of an upside.
Someone with 40 years before retirement and a separate prudent reserve would be, to use the clinical term, “nuts” to be less than 100% in equities.
Someone who is retired would be similarly nuts to be at 100% equity.
For those that don’t know, the best investment the day before the 1987 crash, if you were going to hold it for a year without touching . . . was the stock market.
You should
certainly have enough for the next “few” years in something where you won’t take a bath when you withdraw it.
I learned about diversification young.
My family thought it would be good for me to learn about stocks by investing much of my lawn mowing money. I chose four, bought one . . . and it tanked, while the other three variously doubled and tripled.
Lesson learned.
I have no individual stocks, and everything is in low fee Vanguard and Fidelity funds, and in TIAA-CREF.
I will start shifting some to bonds and some point, but putting money into even medium term bond fund right now would be reckless: there is a
built in loss, even for funds with guaranteed government bonds, as the price of
every single bond in the United States will drop as interest rates rise to “normal” levels, where there is no room for gain, save for multi-decades bonds, from falling rates.
Owning a bond that you can hold to maturity is a different story; you’ve locked in, for better or worse, the return (barring failure of the issuer, of course). In a fund, however, you can’t simply hold to maturity, but must take what happens to the bundle.
Anyway, long term is the key to success. I periodically have conversations with the local General Agent for the Knights of Columbus insurance, who is horrified by my approach (as well as my hostility to whole/universal life policies!). I have the advantage, though, of being a little less than halfway through a 75 year plan . . . I really
could take a 50% hit tomorrow, or a month after I retire, or whenever, and not be left short (part of the planning . . .). If I could be
certain that no such loss is on the horizon for at least 25 years, I’d retire right now . . .
hawk
That is very large difference in fund fees and will cost 1000s of dollars year after year.
fees are the single biggest factor in return! I think my jaw dropped when I sat in on a former client’s presentation from a major insurance company and saw 2% annual fees on their stock funds for 401k!