DNA and the Origin of Life: Information, Specification, and Explanation
…3.2 BEYOND THE REACH OF CHANCE
Perhaps the most common popular view about the origin of life is that it happened
exclusively by chance. A few serious scientists have also voiced support for this view, at
least, at various points during their careers. In 1954 the physicist George Wald, for
example, argued for the causal efficacy of chance in conjunction vast expanses of time.
As he explained, “Time is in fact the hero of the plot. . . . Given so much time, the
impossible becomes possible, the possible probable, and the probable virtually certain”
[48; 49, p. 121]. Later in 1968 Francis Crick would suggest that the origin of the genetic
code—i.e., the translation system—might be a “frozen accident” [50, 51]. Other theories
have invoked chance as an explanation for the origin of genetic information though often
in conjunction with pre-biotic natural selection. (see below 3.3)
While outside origin-of-life biology some may still invoke ‘chance’ as an explanation
for the origin of life, most serious origin-of-life researchers now reject it as an adequate
causal explanation for the origin of biological information [52; 44, pp. 89-93; 47, p. 7].
Since molecular biologists began to appreciate the sequence specificity of proteins and
nucleic acids in the 1950s and 1960s, many calculations have been made to determine the
probability of formulating functional proteins and nucleic acids at random. Various
methods of calculating probabilities have been offered by Morowitz, Hoyle and
Wickramasinghe, Cairns-Smith, Prigogine, Yockey, and more recently, Robert Sauer [53,
pp. 5-12; 54, pp. 24-27; 55, pp. 91-96; 56; 30, pp. 246-58; 57; 34; 35; 36; 49, pp. 117-31].
For the sake of argument, these calculations have often assumed extremely favorable
prebiotic conditions (whether realistic or not), much more time than was actually
available on the early earth, and theoretically maximal reaction rates among constituent
© by Stephen C. Meyer. All Rights Reserved.
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monomers (i.e., the constituent parts of proteins, DNA and RNA). Such calculations have
invariably shown that the probability of obtaining functionally sequenced
biomacromolecules at random is, in Prigogine’s words, “vanishingly small . . .even on the
scale of . . .billions of years” [56]. As Cairns-Smith wrote in 1971:
Blind chance…is very limited. Low-levels of cooperation he [blind chance] can
produce exceedingly easily (the equivalent of letters and small words), but he
becomes very quickly incompetent as the amount of organization increases. Very
soon indeed long waiting periods and massive material resources become
irrelevant. [55, p. 95]