“Natural Law” is the clincher. God sent Christ to us because we have original sin, and because of that, it is impossible for any person to be perfect and behave perfectly. Thus I would say that it one lived mostly within natural law, they would go to a place that is not hell, but not heaven with God either. Especially if they had the offer of Christ’s redemption and rejected it. Their circumstances in that place would be dependent on their alignment with the law. Whether or not that is Abraham’s Bosom I cannot know, and whether its pleasantness or unpleasantness is akin to that of heaven or hell I cannot know either. I can only show one’s best option.
One ought to at least have good hope for the eternal salvation of all those who in no way dwell in the true Church of Christ. - Encyclical Quanto conficiamur moerore, August 10, 1863, etc." This was in the Syllabus of Errors. I think the relatively recent idea that everybody’s chances are equal is a response to that sort of liberal theology that says all people are basically good, and all religions basically the same. The idea of the negative judgement of God is uncomfortable to us, so we try to soften it.
“God wills the salvation of everyone through the knowledge of the truth. Salvation is found in the truth. Those who obey the prompting of the Spirit of truth are already on the way of salvation. But the Church, to whom this truth has been entrusted, must go out to meet their desire, so as to bring them the truth. Because she believes in God’s universal plan of salvation, the Church must be missionary.” They are on their way to salvation, but not yet there.
those who do not belong to the visible Body of the Catholic Church… We ask each and every one of them to correspond to the interior movements of grace, and to seek to withdraw from that state in which they cannot be secure about their salvation.[Cf. Pius IX, Iam Vos Omnes, 13 Sept. 1868] For even though by an unconscious desire and longing have a certain relationship with the Mystical Body of the Redeemer, they still remain deprived of those many heavenly gifts and helps which can only be enjoyed in the Catholic Church.
I am not a Roman Catholic, at least not yet. I believe in the “catholic” church, so long as it is orthodox and preaches the True Word of God. But I do agree that even if unbelievers do not go to hell, they will not experience the full joy of heaven. Whether or not they will be aware of this in the afterlife I cannot say.
The only thing we can be assured of is that if we die in God’s Grace, we will be saved. And that does mean we will have to engage in evangelization. We cannot merely put unbelievers on the back and say, “That’s all right, I wish you the best of luck.”