Pascal's Wager and Faith

[Qoeleth]

Pascal’s Wager is the idea that even if there is only a small chance God, Heaven and Hell are real, since we are betting on infinite pain or joy, it is well worth it to act as if they are. If, for example, there is lottery we only have a 1% chance of winning, but the prize is infinite, it will always be worth it to buy a ticket. To be honest, (although I am Catholic) I think there is probably not literally a Hell of Eternal Fire, but I am not prepared to take the risk!!

I suppose Albert Camus’ statement reflects a similar principle: “It is better to live as if there is a God, and find out there isn’t, than to live as if there isn’t and to find out there is.”

But, is acting out of Pascal’s Wager the same as faith? It seems to be more a kind of agnosticism.

How would unbelievers respond to Pascal’s Wager? Even if there is only a 1% chance Heaven and Hell are real (which, objectively, even a hard-core atheist would have to admit)- are you prepared to take the risk?

 

[Poseidon]

It depends on what you mean by “living as if God exists.” If you mean not killing, stealing, raping, cheating on your spouse, etc, then I’d do that anyway. There is no cost to me for doing that, and therefore I’ll do it.

There are situations where it isn’t worth it to do that, however. For example, a gay person would face the choice of marrying the person they love and risking the wrath of God in the afterlife, or spending their whole life alone on the chance that it will get them rewarded when they die. So it really could go either way in my mind.

 

[Gorgias]

I think there is probably not literally a Hell of Eternal Fire

LOL…! Which are you unsure about: the Hell, the Eternal, or the Fire?!?

 

[JDaniel]

It depends on what you mean by “living as if God exists.” If you mean not killing, stealing, raping, cheating on your spouse, etc, then I’d do that anyway. There is no cost to me for doing that, and therefore I’ll do it.

There are situations where it isn’t worth it to do that, however. For example, a gay person would face the choice of marrying the person they love and risking the wrath of God in the afterlife, or spending their whole life alone on the chance that it will get them rewarded when they die. So it really could go either way in my mind.

Poseidon:

Why should two married gays “risk the wrath of God in the afterlife”? From where do you get this?

God bless,
jd

 

[ASimon]

In formulating his wager, Pascal was explicitly addressing “those who are so made that they cannot believe.” He was essentially acknowledging that you can’t force belief on anyone, ourselves least of all, and certain of those among us just aren’t wired in such a way that authentic belief will ever truly be on the table. And Pascal is basically telling those people to fake it.

To answer the first question, no, this cannot be called ‘faith’ in any meaningful sense of the word. But more to the point, Pascal seems to imply that it doesn’t even matter in the eyes of God. He’ll accept a disingenuous believer just as readily as he will a true believer. This is a fairly startling admission if we’re prepared to treat Pascal as any sort of authority on the matter. It means that God either doesn’t know the difference, or doesn’t care.

I view the Christian conceptions of Heaven and Hell to be different flavors of intolerable, but the good news is, the bar for admittance to Heaven is so low, it would seem you’d hardly need to do anything.

 

[Gorgias]

certain of those among us just aren’t wired in such a way that authentic belief will ever truly be on the table. And Pascal is basically telling those people to fake it.

To answer the first question, no, this cannot be called ‘faith’ in any meaningful sense of the word. But more to the point, Pascal seems to imply that it doesn’t even matter in the eyes of God. He’ll accept a disingenuous believer just as readily as he will a true believer.

This is an incredibly poor interpretation of Pascal’s thought. It’s a nice story, mind you, and it fits a certain world-view well. As a take on what Pascal had to say, though… epic fail.

From Pascal’s Pensees (all emphases mine): “But at least learn your inability to believe, since reason brings you to this, and yet you cannot believe. Endeavour then to convince yourself, not by increase of proofs of God, but by the abatement of your passions. You would like to attain faith, and do not know the way; you would like to cure yourself of unbelief, and ask the remedy for it. Learn of those who have been bound like you, and who now stake all their possessions. These are people who know the way which you would follow, and who are cured of an ill of which you would be cured. Follow the way by which they began; by acting as if they believed, taking the holy water, having masses said, etc. Even this will naturally make you believe, and deaden your acuteness.”

 

[JDaniel]

In formulating his wager, Pascal was explicitly addressing “those who are so made that they cannot believe.” He was essentially acknowledging that you can’t force belief on anyone, ourselves least of all, and certain of those among us just aren’t wired in such a way that authentic belief will ever truly be on the table. And Pascal is basically telling those people to fake it.

To answer the first question, no, this cannot be called ‘faith’ in any meaningful sense of the word. But more to the point, Pascal seems to imply that it doesn’t even matter in the eyes of God. He’ll accept a disingenuous believer just as readily as he will a true believer. This is a fairly startling admission if we’re prepared to treat Pascal as any sort of authority on the matter. It means that God either doesn’t know the difference, or doesn’t care.

I view the Christian conceptions of Heaven and Hell to be different flavors of intolerable, but the good news is, the bar for admittance to Heaven is so low, it would seem you’d hardly need to do anything.

Hello, AS:

You are correct, Sir: the bar is really not that high. There are two requirements - just as there are to gain admission to any club, or private party, etc. - Love God with all of your heart, your soul, and your strength. And, love your neighbor as yourself. The world is replete with descriptions of how these can be accomplished.

The tough one is the first one - for the atheist. Although he may be less a true “atheist” and more a true holder of invincible ignorance. But, before you get yours feathers in a fluff, allow me to explain. It is possible that a person’s reason will not allow that person to accept the wild and rampant theories often heard by Christians and Catholic Christians. They might well be the proximate causes of a person’s invincible ignorance by rejection of stupidity.

God bless,
jd

 

[Poseidon]

Poseidon:

Why should two married gays “risk the wrath of God in the afterlife”? From where do you get this?

God bless,
jd

The teaching of the Catholic Church that homosexual acts are a mortal sin, and mortal sin sends you to hell.

 

[Qoeleth]

In formulating his wager, Pascal was explicitly addressing “those who are so made that they cannot believe.” He was essentially acknowledging that you can’t force belief on anyone, ourselves least of all, and certain of those among us just aren’t wired in such a way that authentic belief will ever truly be on the table. And Pascal is basically telling those people to fake it.

To answer the first question, no, this cannot be called ‘faith’ in any meaningful sense of the word. But more to the point, Pascal seems to imply that it doesn’t even matter in the eyes of God. He’ll accept a disingenuous believer just as readily as he will a true believer. This is a fairly startling admission if we’re prepared to treat Pascal as any sort of authority on the matter. It means that God either doesn’t know the difference, or doesn’t care.

I view the Christian conceptions of Heaven and Hell to be different flavors of intolerable, but the good news is, the bar for admittance to Heaven is so low, it would seem you’d hardly need to do anything.

Well, I wonder what is the merit in ‘faith’ as such- if it simply means believing an idea? And you can’t will yourself to have faith, can you?

Are we sure the bar for Heaven is so low, or is that just wishful thinking? Jesus says the wide path and easy road is to Hell, and is trodden by the many, and the path to Heaven is hard and narrow by and found the few.

Maybe, just maybe, God will sit on a throne of judgment, and tick off which of the commands I broke, including the Levitical law, since “not one tiny stroke of the Law will disappear.” And, if I don’t measure up, he will cast me to the outer darkness where there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth for all eternity. I don’t think this really is the case, but it MIGHT be. And surely that is enough reason try to follow the commandments of God to the letter, to err on the side of caution.

 

[Eleve]

How would unbelievers respond to Pascal’s Wager? Even if there is only a 1% chance Heaven and Hell are real (which, objectively, even a hard-core atheist would have to admit)- are you prepared to take the risk?

Say Pascal is right and there’s an infinite expected return on believing in God. Then if I go down a path where there’s some non-zero chance that I’ll end up believing in God, by Pascal’s own logic there’s still an infinite expected return. For example, I could say “I’ll flip a coin; if it comes up heads I’ll believe in God, and if it comes up tails I won’t.” There’s a 50% chance I’ll end up believing in God, so, if believing in God has infinite expected value, my coin-flip plan has infinite expected value.

I can implement this same strategy just ignoring Pascal’s Wager. If I ignore it, there’s always at least some chance that I’ll start believing in God. So, by Pascal’s reasoning, there’s an infinite expected value to ignoring Pascal’s Wager.

 

[Qoeleth]

Say Pascal is right and there’s an infinite expected return on believing in God. Then if I go down a path where there’s some non-zero chance that I’ll end up believing in God, by Pascal’s own logic there’s still an infinite expected return. For example, I could say “I’ll flip a coin; if it comes up heads I’ll believe in God, and if it comes up tails I won’t.” There’s a 50% chance I’ll end up believing in God, so, if believing in God has infinite expected value, my coin-flip plan has infinite expected value.

I can implement this same strategy just ignoring Pascal’s Wager. If I ignore it, there’s always at least some chance that I’ll start believing in God. So, by Pascal’s reasoning, there’s an infinite expected value to ignoring Pascal’s Wager.

I don’t think Pascal was talking about believing in God, so much as acting as if God existed (obeying the commandments, practising religion), etc. You make a wager of your behaviour, of givng up a few thing, taking up a few things, etc., in order to play for the infinite return. Since the return is infinite, it is worth it to make the wager of something finite (your life), in order to win the prize (or avoid the punuishment)!

 

[JDaniel]

The teaching of the Catholic Church that homosexual acts are a mortal sin, and mortal sin sends you to hell.

Poseidon:

Any sexual act, by anyone, that is not open to and capable of producing progeny, is mortal sin. They’re not segregated out for that! The Church is simply being consistent.

God bless,
jd

 

[Eleve]

I don’t think Pascal was talking about believing in God, so much as acting as if God existed (obeying the commandments, practising religion), etc. You make a wager of your behaviour, of givng up a few thing, taking up a few things, etc., in order to play for the infinite return. Since the return is infinite, it is worth it to make the wager of something finite (your life), in order to win the prize (or avoid the punuishment)!

Same argument applies. There’s a non-zero chance that if I ignore Pascal’s Wager I will end up doing whatever it is he wants me to do anyway. So, if his math checks out, I have an infinite expectation of return from ignoring the wager.

 

[Qoeleth]

Same argument applies. There’s a non-zero chance that if I ignore Pascal’s Wager I will end up doing whatever it is he wants me to do anyway. So, if his math checks out, I have an infinite expectation of return from ignoring the wager.

That seems to be true, mathematically speaking. I think…

 

[JDaniel]

Always remember, God knows our hearts. This is not a children’s game. Pascal didn’t forget this.

God bless,
jd

 

[Qoeleth]

Always remember, God knows our hearts. This is not a children’s game.

God bless,
jd

What if someone has a bad heart, is selfish, greedy, lustful, proud, etc.? But they decide they don’t want to spend eternity in Hell. They can change their actions- make themselves obey the commandments, act charitably, peacefully, humbly, etc- but they can’t change their heart.

God made the heart- if God judges the heart, He judges Himself, His own work. But we make our own actions.

 

[ASimon]

Hello, AS:

You are correct, Sir: the bar is really not that high. There are two requirements - just as there are to gain admission to any club, or private party, etc. - Love God with all of your heart, your soul, and your strength. And, love your neighbor as yourself. The world is replete with descriptions of how these can be accomplished.

The tough one is the first one - for the atheist. Although he may be less a true “atheist” and more a true holder of invincible ignorance. But, before you get yours feathers in a fluff, allow me to explain. It is possible that a person’s reason will not allow that person to accept the wild and rampant theories often heard by Christians and Catholic Christians. They might well be the proximate causes of a person’s invincible ignorance by rejection of stupidity.

God bless,
jd

Well, an atheist, pretty much by definition, cannot Love God at all, much less Love him with all his heart, soul and strength. But what Pascal is saying is that it basically doesn’t matter - not to God, at any rate. You don’t need to love God at all. You just need to be polite.

 

[SummitJim]

The math breaks down when you move from saying that the reward for believing in God is infinite to saying that the expected return is infinite. Whenever you introduce infinity, or divide by zero, you cannot trust the conclusion. I don’t think Pascal’s wager should be described mathematically; it’s more a matter for philosophy.

 

[Qoeleth]

Well, an atheist, pretty much by definition, cannot Love God at all, much less Love him with all his heart, soul and strength. But what Pascal is saying is that it basically doesn’t matter - not to God, at any rate. You don’t need to love God at all. You just need to be polite.

Possibly. A truly polite person would “give to anyone who asks. Lend without expecting to be repaid. Bless those who curse you. Do not parade your good deeds before men. Take the lowest seat at the table”, etc.

Politeness, in its fullest sense, is often under-rated.

 

[Gorgias]

But what Pascal is saying is that it basically doesn’t matter - not to God, at any rate. You don’t need to love God at all. You just need to be polite.

No, that’s not what Pascal is saying; see my post, #6 in this thread…