Pascals wager rewards the fear of hell. I think this is where it fails because we have no experience of heaven and hell.
But when dealing with the reality we know, I think, pascals wager makes sense when faced with the possibility of nihilism and if a rationally consistent sense of value and meaning is the only reward if we reject it, because we at least have a concept of what its like to have sense of worth and value and meaning in our lives…
Most atheists don’t honestly perceive themselves as living in a nihilistic reality and neither do they take its consequence seriously in their day to day lives, because they don’t realize the absurdity of concepts like meaning, moral value, and purpose in a strictly materialistic reality. This is what allows them to operate with some sense of dignity despite the fact that there is none if they are correct. Thus their lives can continue in the illusion that their thoughts, feelings, and behavior, are not absurd. But the reality is, if nihilism is true, then any sense of existential value that one applies to existing things beyond the concept of utility, be it moral value or some kind of meaning, becomes rationally absurd in so far as it is not consistent with objective reality.
The problem is we need to have meaning, moral value, and purpose to be motivated and function in the world because we are emotional beings and we naturally desire such things. But, more importantly, we also desire them to be true. Most of us are not satisfied with a value that we know is not true.
Pascals wager is for those who do understand the reality of nihilism and the impossibility of living with it on a psychological level. Thus in that context it seems more reasonable to wager that there is a purpose, meaning, and moral value to their existence (and thus there is a God) rather than go through life assuming that their lives have no true meaning, purpose or moral value or that any value they have is subject to the egotistic fantasy going on in someone else’s head or is subject to societies opinions. In fact it seems absolutely absurd for somebody to wager nihilism over theism.
To place ones hope in Theism is a revolutionary act, existentially and psychologically speaking becuase it is freedom from absolute absurdity……