Pascal's Wager

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That is not the assumption of Pascal’s Wager.
Worshiping the God of the Catholic faith precludes me from worshiping any other, so I can only use Pascal’s Wager in that context. Playing “just in case” would violate my faith, so it’s an irrelevant question. It might be relevant for people of various other religions, though.
 
Worshiping the God of the Catholic faith precludes me from worshiping any other, so I can only use Pascal’s Wager in that context. Playing “just in case” would violate my faith, so it’s an irrelevant question. It might be relevant for people of various other religions, though.
Oh, but that pretty much renders the wager futile.

It has to be efficacious in any context, my friend.

There is **nothing ** at all about the wager that does not allow me to apply it to Mahhomedanism.

And the moment I do that, you suddenly are placed on the loser’s side. You are the one who placed his bet on the wrong number. You go to hell. Bye bye God.
 
Likewise, a serial killer could miss out on adding more names to his death list. This proves nothing.

That would be in direct violation of the first commandment.
This proves that the wager has no inherent value whatsoever until you imbue it with your own moral and societal values, which, by the way, are not universaly held.

In other words, “the wager has value if I accept that there is no value in having four wives, and in order to accept that, I have to be a Christian, or at. least, not to be a Muslim”
 
I don’t think there’s anything to lose in being a Christian - certainly nothing of inherent or incontestable value
The “I don’t think” is the operational word here.

You might not think there is, and you don’t think there is precisely because, being a christian, your values are already shaped thus.

For a fellow who’s values have been shaped by another religion, there might be much to loose.

You prove that yourself, for, when you were confronted to certain possible losses, such as the loss of a lesbian’s wife, you had to fall back on your christian values in order to refute them as real losses.

You might want to rethink your assertion thus: “I don’t think there’s anything to lose **to a Christian **in being a Christian - certainly nothing of inherent or incontestable value”
 
Oh, but that pretty much renders the wager futile. It has to be efficacious in any context, my friend.
It requires that “God” is clearly defined, that’s all. I don’t see how that makes it futile; it simply means that the wager must be based on something substantial, not on a vague concept. After all, “God” could mean chocolate cake to the next person. It would be fairly useless if expressed in a relativistic context. The truth has to be accepted on its own terms, not on the terms of the individual. No argument is efficacious in all contexts.
 
Atheists dismiss it because it’s effective at pointing out their error.
Atheists dismiss it because it doesn’t address their concerns.

How do we know there is a god?

Pascal’s wager doesn’t answer this. It is a risk analysis-
…God Exists……God does not exist
Believe……Reward……Nothing…
Disbelief……Punishment……Nothing…
In the same manner, I could easily substitute anything for “god” in this- the hateful god of Fred Phelps of the Westboro Baptist Church, for example.

Again, if the only reason you’re believing in a [Christian] God is because of a risk analysis like this, it would make more sense to believe in one of the stricter Christian faiths.
…Strict God Exists……Forgiving God Exists…
Belief in Strict……Reward……Forgiveness (reward)…
Belief in Loving……Punishment……Reward…
Some Christian communities use no electricity.
Some have clothing restrictions. There is a wide range here, from requirements of always wearing skirts for women and suits for men, to always covering your head, to wearing only “plain” clothes.
Some have makeup/jewelry restrictions. No wedding rings, sorry, that is idolatry.
Some have restrictions on access to medical aid, including minor things such as antibiotics and aspirin. (And major things, such as hospital care, blood transfusions, and maternity care for pregnant women)
Some have marriage restrictions. Arranged marriages, child engagements, unequal partnerships in relationships once married.

And that is assuming that we pick a Christian God.
 
Among the numerous problems of Pascal’s Wager, it can be reversed! Here’s one person’s reversal of Pascal’s Wager:

“Suppose there is a god, but he is only going to reward those who have enough courage not to believe in him. This god is no less likely than Pascal’s. By Believing in a god, Christians are risking eternal torture! When they die, they will be very surprised.”
Uhh… Not the Christian God, so non-applicable. Also, no God realistically doesn’t want you to believe him and act on it. Your argument, while conceivable, is impossible with the Christian God and nothing but a naked assertion, a wild idea to reject something you don’t like, beyond that.
 
Also, no God realistically doesn’t want you to believe him and act on it.
I mean no offense when I type this, but I am hoping to provide the understanding of a perspective. There are those that feel part of the sentence that followed the above is equally applicable to Yahweh, Alluh, Zeus, and others…
our argument, while conceivable, is impossible -]with the Christian God /-]and nothing but a naked assertion…
In just limiting my consideration to the Abrahamic religions even if I consider Pascal’s Wager something that convinces me to go monotheistic it doesn’t provide any assistance in deciding which one of the religions or denominations. Check out Wikipedia’s list of Christian Denominations , branches of islam, or list of modern divisions of Judiasm.

I’m not convinced by Pascal’s Wager. I had been a Christian from childhood indoctrination for the first twenty years of my life. Having already encountered information that made belief in Yahweh something that I cannot sustain I doubt that I’ll encounter something that will re-convince me to believe that a deity name Yahweh exists any more than I expect to encounter something that will re-convince me that an arctic dwelling immortal magical man named Santa Claus exists.
 
Uhh… Not the Christian God, so non-applicable. Also, no God realistically doesn’t want you to believe him and act on it. Your argument, while conceivable, is impossible with the Christian God and nothing but a naked assertion, a wild idea to reject something you don’t like, beyond that.
I could tell you to believe in Tinkerbell. If you believe in Tinkerbell, after you die, you will be transported to Neverland. If you don’t believe, you will simply cease to be. Obviously, it is much safer to believe in Tinkerbell.

Problem is… why should you believe? Did I address any concerns you have?

No- The problem here is that the wager doesn’t give reasons why to believe, other than reward/punishment. It isn’t concerned with evidence, merely risk. It also assigns the same probabilities to each square on the board.

Suppose there is a [name of deity]. He will reward you for [action] after death. If you do not do [same action], then you are risking punishment!

You can fill in the blanks with whatever you wish. As already quoted by Truth Seeker,

“Suppose there is a god, but he is only going to reward those who have enough courage not to believe in him. This god is no less likely than Pascal’s. By Believing in a god, Christians are risking eternal torture! When they die, they will be very surprised.”
 
To me, the Hitchens objection to Pascal’s Wager stills works. Since belief must be authentic by definition, to treat Pascal’s Wager seriously is, in effect, to say that God either isn’t capable to telling the difference between faked belief and the real thing, or is perfectly capable but doesn’t care. My only question, why would any believer subscribe to such a being.
 
I mean no offense when I type this, but I am hoping to provide the understanding of a perspective. There are those that feel part of the sentence that followed the above is equally applicable to Yahweh, Alluh, Zeus, and others…
And that’s how I meant the sentence to be. I meant that ANY God ANYBODY could apply Pascal’s Wager to (although I think there are good defenses elsewhere for Christianity being the only major candidate) would not want somebody to have “courage” and not believe them over somebody having faith and believing on them. My point was, no matter which religion you apply it to, TruthSeeker’s argument fails.
In just limiting my consideration to the Abrahamic religions even if I consider Pascal’s Wager something that convinces me to go monotheistic it doesn’t provide any assistance in deciding which one of the religions or denominations. Check out Wikipedia’s list of Christian Denominations , branches of islam, or list of modern divisions of Judiasm.
Well, that brings me around to a point. IMO, if you’re any Christian Denomination or Jewish one and you genuinely didn’t see the evidence for the “right” one, I think you will be rewarded regardless. That being said, if you’re actually interested in joining an Abrahamic faith because of PW, which I don’t think you are, but can’t find which denomination is right, I advice outside study to help.
I’m not convinced by Pascal’s Wager.
Being “convinced” by an argument is unimportant. What matters is the logical soundness of the argument. It doesn’t matter if you find PW “convincing” it matters if its logic holds up.
Having already encountered information that made belief in Yahweh something that I cannot sustain I doubt that I’ll encounter something that will re-convince me to believe that a deity name Yahweh exists any more than I expect to encounter something that will re-convince me that an arctic dwelling immortal magical man named Santa Claus exists.
And what is that evidence, may I ask? I’m genuinely interested, so please do tell me.
 
I could tell you to believe in Tinkerbell. If you believe in Tinkerbell, after you die, you will be transported to Neverland. If you don’t believe, you will simply cease to be. Obviously, it is much safer to believe in Tinkerbell.
Ceasing to be is neutral, while hell is negative, ergo, a strawman.
Problem is… why should you believe? Did I address any concerns you have?
If your argument was not a strawman, you would address the concern of the possibility of me dying and suffering for eternity.
No- The problem here is that the wager doesn’t give reasons why to believe, other than reward/punishment. It isn’t concerned with evidence, merely risk. It also assigns the same probabilities to each square on the board.
Well, you can study for evidence for your faith after. I’m not saying blind faith is good or healthy, but it’s a better starting point than atheism for a study of the evidence (or lack thereof)
Suppose there is a [name of deity]. He will reward you for [action] after death. If you do not do [same action], then you are risking punishment!
Well, as I pointed out above, if you’re genuinely convinced by PW but can’t decide which God there’s nothing about the wager which rules out outside study. I suppose you could start at classical theism and choose a specific religion after you find one which the evidence supports (to you, at least).
“Suppose there is a god, but he is only going to reward those who have enough courage not to believe in him. This god is no less likely than Pascal’s. By Believing in a god, Christians are risking eternal torture! When they die, they will be very surprised.”
As you failed to address, TS’s argument is just a rationalization for being too lazy to follow Pascal’s Wager - even if he disguises it as nothing but one “of many logical problems in the argument” (paraphrase). No God would realistically behave that way - there’s certainly no God I’ve seen in the Religion Books I’ve read. And also, at this point in time, it is FAR more courageous to believe than to be an atheist.
 
To me, the Hitchens objection to Pascal’s Wager stills works. Since belief must be authentic by definition, to treat Pascal’s Wager seriously is, in effect, to say that God either isn’t capable to telling the difference between faked belief and the real thing, or is perfectly capable but doesn’t care. My only question, why would any believer subscribe to such a being.
Pascal already addressed this “problem”, actually. What Hitchens ignores is the *psychology *behind the Wager - you won’t get saved for fake faith, at least not in the form of it as saving faith, although maybe you will go to purgatory, but if you go with the whole scheme, go to mass, confession, pray nightly, Pascal argued that fake belief would become real belief. In fact, modern psychology supports this conclusion very much so.
 
And what is that evidence, may I ask? I’m genuinely interested, so please do tell me.
I don’t want to take this thread too far off subject. So I will keep my answer restricted to a few pieces of information. I had known of some of this information before my de-conversion from Christianity began. It didn’t play any significant role in my de-conversion, but together with other information it does form part of the body of information that I think makes it unlikely that I will ever become a Christian again.

There is information that shows that parts of Christianity came from other religions and have been blended into Christianity. There is the Enuma Elish from an ancient Babylonian religion; a creation story found in stone documents whose origins predates the earliest known forms of Christianity. There is Gilgamesh, an ancient story that among other things includes a snake that robbed a man of everlasting life by preventing him from eating a fruit (as opposed to manipulating him into eating it) and a story of a man that saved life on earth from being destroyed by a flood that one of the gods had sent to destroy the world.

The great fluidity that is applied to the meaning of words and phrases in the bible brings into question what interpretation is “correct.” I don’t think I need to detail this area too much. The impacts of differences in interpretation of words interferes with communication within these forums. Find one of the threads on “free will” for an example. The manner in which some key words in Christianity (“salvation”, “believe”, “redemption”, so on) were used in other documents from around the same time as the documents that form the bible show that our interpretation of them today is different than they were when they were written.
What was the interpretation of the statement about the earth resting on pillars and being unmovable? The statement was once taken to be literal. From knowledge of celestial mechanics, our solar system, and the shape of the earth this interpretation is almost dead.Many interpretations today now say it is a metaphor. Though there is still opposition to scientific findings today because those findings don’t agree with an interpretation of something from the bible.

Information on the construction of the bible also shows the the documents that were pulled together to construct it had their own evolution. Comparison of older versions of the documents which we now call “books of the bible” there can be found insertions, deletions, and modifications. Analysis of vocabulary and dialect used within the documents also points to some one having made changes when duplicating the documents. Some of the modifications are thought to be unintentional mistakes that one might expect from the documents being hand copied. For some modifications there are political goals that may have motivated slight modifications. Some of the information that appears to have been added to these documents includes the stories that had been borrowed and blended from other religions. These modifications also suggest an answer to the question of why accounts for some events in different books in the bible are not consistent. The interesting thing to me about this information is it may be something that I can test myself with software. I’m already working on something that will be used to identify a person by their writing style given a sample of writings (e-mails, instant messages, so on) from a collection of people. With some modification I may be able to use this examine these documents in the same manner to see if I get similar results. Though I’ve not yet found how I can get digital copies of the different versions of these documents.

Here are a few of the sources for this information that I have (I have additional).

Books:

“The History of God” - Karen Armstrong
“The Bible with Sources Revealed” - Richard Elliott Friedman
“Forged” - Bart D. Ehrman
“Jesus Interrupted” - Bart D. Ehrman
“Who Wrote the Bible” - Richard Elliott Friedman
“Speaking Christian” - Marcus J. Borg

Video Reviews of some of these Books:

Video review of “Speaking Christian” on CNN
religion.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/31/do-you-speak-christian/

Video Summary of some of the information more relevant to Christianity in “The Battle for God”
youtube.com/watch?v=MlnnWbkMlbg
 
Ceasing to be is neutral, while hell is negative, ergo, a strawman.
I’m sorry; you’re right. A more apt punishment would be living inside a giant crocodile for eternity. Tick Tock.

(…Or was it an alligator?)
Well, you can study for evidence for your faith after. I’m not saying blind faith is good or healthy, but it’s a better starting point than atheism for a study of the evidence (or lack thereof)
I’m not certain I accept this. Do you first make up your mind about something new and then look for the evidence to study?
As you failed to address, TS’s argument is just a rationalization for being too lazy to follow Pascal’s Wager - even if he disguises it as nothing but one “of many logical problems in the argument” (paraphrase). No God would realistically behave that way - there’s certainly no God I’ve seen in the Religion Books I’ve read. And also, at this point in time, it is FAR more courageous to believe than to be an atheist.
I do agree with you that such a god would be crazy. I don’t think this particular suggestion is any more crazy than my Tinkerbell one though. It follows a formula. It is asking you to believe in something (possibly) incredulous with no evidence; arguing that Blind Faith and Adherence is a virtue in such a situation.

As you’ve pointed out:
Pascal already addressed this “problem”, actually. What Hitchens ignores is the psychology behind the Wager - you won’t get saved for fake faith, at least not in the form of it as saving faith, although maybe you will go to purgatory, but if you go with the whole scheme, go to mass, confession, pray nightly, Pascal argued that fake belief would become real belief. In fact, modern psychology supports this conclusion very much so.
 
There is information that shows that parts of Christianity came from other religions and have been blended into Christianity. There is the Enuma Elish from an ancient Babylonian religion; a creation story found in stone documents whose origins predates the earliest known forms of Christianity. There is Gilgamesh, an ancient story that among other things includes a snake that robbed a man of everlasting life by preventing him from eating a fruit (as opposed to manipulating him into eating it) and a story of a man that saved life on earth from being destroyed by a flood that one of the gods had sent to destroy the world.
I’ve seen that stuff before. I don’t know how far your study extended, but serious scholars no longer consider the possibility of the major events of Genesis and Exodus being ripped off from Pagan cultures. Even Wikipedia, which has a liberal bias, admits that Exodus probably did not use any Mesopotamian documents as sources. Other than that I advise these links:

christianthinktank.com/gilgymess.html
tektonics.org/af/babgenesis.html
The great fluidity that is applied to the meaning of words and phrases in the bible brings into question what interpretation is “correct.” I don’t think I need to detail this area too much. The impacts of differences in interpretation of words interferes with communication within these forums. Find one of the threads on “free will” for an example. The manner in which some key words in Christianity (“salvation”, “believe”, “redemption”, so on) were used in other documents from around the same time as the documents that form the bible show that our interpretation of them today is different than they were when they were written.
While you are accurate, you seem not to have read into this beyond that, and had a fundamentalist understanding of the issue. YES, the first century Christians had a much different (and probably correct) interpretation of terms and doctrines than modern Christians, NO that doesn’t pose a problem to Christianity. If anything, it SUPPORTS us.
What was the interpretation of the statement about the earth resting on pillars and being unmovable? The statement was once taken to be literal. From knowledge of celestial mechanics, our solar system, and the shape of the earth this interpretation is almost dead.Many interpretations today now say it is a metaphor. Though there is still opposition to scientific findings today because those findings don’t agree with an interpretation of something from the bible.
Actually, many early Christians opted for an allegorical interpretation themselves. The point is, it being allegory doesn’t really do us any harm.
Information on the construction of the bible also shows the the documents that were pulled together to construct it had their own evolution. Comparison of older versions of the documents which we now call “books of the bible” there can be found insertions, deletions, and modifications. Analysis of vocabulary and dialect used within the documents also points to some one having made changes when duplicating the documents. Some of the modifications are thought to be unintentional mistakes that one might expect from the documents being hand copied. For some modifications there are political goals that may have motivated slight modifications. Some of the information that appears to have been added to these documents includes the stories that had been borrowed and blended from other religions. These modifications also suggest an answer to the question of why accounts for some events in different books in the bible are not consistent.
While there were changes to the books, those don’t create any problems to non-fundamentalists. Core doctrines still remain and anything which seems really problematic is probably decontextualized. I noticed you mentioned Bart Ehrman as one of your sources. The review below may be of some help:
tektonics.org/books/ehrqurvw.html
The interesting thing to me about this information is it may be something that I can test myself with software. I’m already working on something that will be used to identify a person by their writing style given a sample of writings (e-mails, instant messages, so on) from a collection of people. With some modification I may be able to use this examine these documents in the same manner to see if I get similar results. Though I’ve not yet found how I can get digital copies of the different versions of these documents.
They already made 3 of them, if not more, one for Pauline NT and another for OT. The OT is untested, but the 2 Pauline NT ones have both been run. One agrees with the scholarly consensus but the latter, after being given more up-to-date manuscripts, stated that all but one of the Paulines are by one author. The point is, software like this is nothing special - there are already people who can do it, and it’s easy to program “invisible bias” into the machine, or not even program it but hide data. That being said, if you think you can actually make a form of the software which reads ancient language, analyzes it based on ancient style and rhetoric, takes scribes into account, and lacks bias, I advice sending it to a scholar somewhere.
 
That being said, if you think you can actually make a form of the software which reads ancient language, analyzes it based on ancient style and rhetoric, takes scribes into account, and lacks bias, I advice sending it to a scholar somewhere.
Ouch, harsh.
Why not just wish him luck?
 
There is information that shows that parts of Christianity came from other religions and have been blended into Christianity. There is the Enuma Elish from an ancient Babylonian religion; a creation story found in stone documents whose origins predates the earliest known forms of Christianity. There is Gilgamesh, an ancient story that among other things includes a snake that robbed a man of everlasting life by preventing him from eating a fruit (as opposed to manipulating him into eating it) and a story of a man that saved life on earth from being destroyed by a flood that one of the gods had sent to destroy the world.
This is not a new claim at all.

I find it interesting that in one moment it will be claimed that the Bible lacks credibility because it is the only source of something. In the next moment it will be called false because it agrees with other stories. The most glaring example of this is the flood. The flood being told in many cultures means it did not happen. That should then mean that if Christianity has claims specific to it then what is claimed did happen. But the standard of proof changes to suit the conditions.

The idea put forth seems to be that if something in Christianity is at all similar to something else that it must be from that something else. Of course it could be that someone invented a story that later became true. The story of Icarus flying too close to the sun is an ancient myth. The Space Shuttle Columbia, full of flying men, burnt up upon reentry to the Earth. In some mythical sense we could say they flew too close to the sun. Two thousand years from now men could just as easily call this a false tale, despite widespread belief in it, because it resembles the myth of Icarus.

The problem with this mode of refutation is that it assumes borrowing but has no real proof of it. The atheists who believe it demand far greater level of proof from Christians when they make their claims. There is no proof of borrowing just perceived similarities. So the claims is that this *could *be what happened. But, as with most things, anything could have taken place. We need strong reasons to believe why this explanation is more likely than the simple explanation (remembering Occam’s razor). If atheists had ancient documents where people described how they invented a new myth by borrowing from ancient ones then they’d have some proof. But all they have is conjecture.
 
I Other than that I advise these links:
christianthinktank.com/gilgymess.html
tektonics.org/af/babgenesis.html
… I noticed you mentioned Bart Ehrman as one of your sources. The review below may be of some help:
tektonics.org/books/ehrqurvw.html
Thanks for the information. I’ve not gone through it yet but I’ve booked marked it and have it on my queue of reading material.
The point is, software like this is nothing special - there are already people who can do it, and it’s easy to program “invisible bias” into the machine, or not even program it but hide data. That being said, if you think you can actually make a form of the software which reads ancient language, analyzes it based on ancient style and rhetoric, takes scribes into account, and lacks bias, I advice sending it to a scholar somewhere.
“Bias” has special meaning when talking about artificial inteligence agents, so I’m qualifying to any one aware of the other meaning that I’m using “bias” as it would be used in conversation.

I know that bias can be baked into the data or the algorithm. But I wanted to go with an unsupervised algorithm and let the source data set be the ancient documents. While it’s still not impossible for some one to manipulate a system built this way that type of manipulation is presently outside of my abilities. Part of the reason I want to test this out for myself is that I expect a human to have bias and wanted to have some tool for putting the conclusions of Bart and others to some test. The algorithm that I have in mind is language neutral in that given a set of text it will “discover” the grammar and dialect on it’s own. Though I expect it to only be good for identifying writing style and noticing variations from a style.

My interest is more in the old testament than the new. I’ve got digital representations of the new testament in Greek, but I don’t have digital representations of the untranslated documents that formed the old testament. I’m not yet to the point where I need them but am expecting some challenge in acquiring this information.

If I can get it all to work I can think of some applications of the algorithm that extend beyond analyzing biblical documents. Given the amount of time that I expect it to take implement this I’ve figured it would be better to monetize either the end result or some components of my work instead of using it once and then throwing the hours of work away.
 
Pascal regarded the miraculous claims of Judaism and Christianity to be the most persuasive argument for the truths of the Judeo-Christian tradition. No other great religion has been founded by miracle workers. Not even the founder of Islam claimed to work miracles. Certainly not Gautama Buddha.

Pascal believed that if God is to be the founder of any religion it has to be the religion through which His works could be most manifest as divine as opposed to merely natural. He further believed that if you discount the miracles, you would have to dismiss the entire Scriptures, because if the miracles are lies then what reason would there be to believe any of it? Moreover, the authors of Scripture uniformly are such men of integrity and wisdom that it seems unlikely the religion is the fiendish construct of con artists.

So while the wager argument might be used to defend the existence of any God, Pascal believed that the only God really worth wagering on would be the one who offers the greatest wisdom and the greatest examples of the virtuous life for us all to follow.
 
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