Personal Question about NFP

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Let me be quite frank; if you’ve had four kids in five years with NFP… you’re not doing it right.
Let me be frank. If you’re willing to make such a generalization about a couple’s specific situation which you read a few paragraphs about on the internet, you’re rather presumptuous. Our Doctor said we were doing it right. Our NFP Instructor said we were doing it right. All the books we read said we were doing it right…but some anonymous person on the internet with zero credentials says we were doing it wrong. I’m okay with that.
 
I’m just going based on the statistics friend, no need to be overly snippy. As for being presumptuous… well… uh… yeah. Of course I have to presume since I don’t have your medical history, sexual history, whatever else is relevant in front of me nor would I really care to take an amateurish hack at compiling that data and coming up with a conclusion.

My point simply is that most forms of NFP are 95-99% effective with perfect use, depending on the method chosen. It’s not practical to expect “perfect use” due to CM interpretive error, thermometer error, whatever other contributing error factor… and while that effectiveness certainly declines precipitously without such use, it would certainly be very, very statistically unlikely that a very conservative use of NFP would yield four pregnancies within 60-65 months especially since your wife would be pregnant for more than 36 of those months and within the six month “LAM window” for another 24 months. I realize that fertility can return within six months, but it is very uncommon when exclusively breastfeeding… especially for it to happen four times.

So again, I was not trying to be a jerk or anything, I simply did some rough calculations based on pregnancy duration, average postpartum infertility and effectiveness of even imperfect use of NFP and thought “yeah wow that would be really unlikely.”
 
I’m just going based on the statistics friend, no need to be overly snippy. As for being presumptuous… well… uh… yeah. Of course I have to presume since I don’t have your medical history, sexual history, whatever else is relevant in front of me nor would I really care to take an amateurish hack at compiling that data and coming up with a conclusion.

My point simply is that most forms of NFP are 95-99% effective with perfect use, depending on the method chosen. It’s not practical to expect “perfect use” due to CM interpretive error, thermometer error, whatever other contributing error factor… and while that effectiveness certainly declines precipitously without such use, it would certainly be very, very statistically unlikely that a very conservative use of NFP would yield four pregnancies within 60-65 months especially since your wife would be pregnant for more than 36 of those months and within the six month “LAM window” for another 24 months. I realize that fertility can return within six months, but it is very uncommon when exclusively breastfeeding… especially for it to happen four times.

So again, I was not trying to be a jerk or anything, I simply did some rough calculations based on pregnancy duration, average postpartum infertility and effectiveness of even imperfect use of NFP and thought “yeah wow that would be really unlikely.”
The numbers are for an average, healthy female. I don’t think that you can expect the same effectivness if there is an underlying medical problem. Some women also have an early return to fertility; I have a friend who has 4 children all spaced exactly one year apart.
 
We do have people who occasionally take a child or two overnight, yes. They are a great blessing to us.

I merely don’t want any more kids, but I wouldn’t cry if I learned that my wife were pregnant today (well I might, as the father certainly wouldn’t be me!) My wife absolutely positively is not willing to gamble with NFP again. She is not opposed to contracepting (which has worked without fail for us, I am not willing to use anything other than NFP to prevent conception, though it has a 100% failure rate for us.

Thank you very much for your prayers. I will pray for you as well:)
You know that you can confirm ovulation with a blood test or even an over the counter LH test. The LH tests are not always 100% but they will give you some more data to go on at least.

Not being able to have sex with my wife is not something I would take laying down. I would have to get to the bottom of things, and figure out why NFP isn’t working. When my wife and I were going through all of our problems with NFP I was wanting to sell my car and buy an ultrasound machine. I would have done it but it wasn’t safe to use long term. 🙂 I know that abstinence is actually easier than trying to figure things out but sometimes you have to fight for your marriage.
 
The numbers are for an average, healthy female. I don’t think that you can expect the same effectivness if there is an underlying medical problem. Some women also have an early return to fertility; I have a friend who has 4 children all spaced exactly one year apart.
Yeah exactly, while you can;t deny the high possiblity of user error…I donlt think you can also deny that nfp has a pretty high possiblity of things just going wrong. Simply because of a medical condition or whatever. And having children all spaced out just a year apart has got to suck…I feel for your friend.
 
Yeah exactly, while you can;t deny the high possiblity of user error…I donlt think you can also deny that nfp has a pretty high possiblity of things just going wrong. Simply because of a medical condition or whatever.
I’m not trying to be insensitive here, but the generalization that “NFP doesn’t work for me because I have medical issues” doesn’t really fly these days. I know a lot of people face many challenges with using NFP because I’m one of them. But instead of my medical difficulties standing in the way and NFP charts being useless, they are a powerful tool (in the hands of the right doctor) for diagnosing an treating those underlying medical issues.

The Creighton Model is especially effective for these purposes, which is why a lot of people advocate trying out the different methods and taking full advantage of them. Sometimes the underlying medical issues can’t be treated “easily”–I’ve had surgery to address some of mine–but many of them can be treated with outpatient procedures, lifestyle/dietary changes, hormone testing/management, vitamin regimens, etc., to help make a woman’s charting easier by addressing her problems, whatever those might be. I’m not saying that there is a perfect answer for everyone, but I definitely do not agree that with NFP “there is a high probability of things just going wrong”. This is not borne out by research into the modern methods of NFP.

Most mainstream OB-GYNs say “there must be a problem” and suggest sterilization or the Pill as the cure-all treatment, when in reality there are many things that can be done to identify and treat the medical issues that lead to difficulty with using NFP to achieve or avoid pregnancy.
 
I’m not trying to be insensitive here, but the generalization that “NFP doesn’t work for me because I have medical issues” doesn’t really fly these days. I know a lot of people face many challenges with using NFP because I’m one of them. But instead of my medical difficulties standing in the way and NFP charts being useless, they are a powerful tool (in the hands of the right doctor) for diagnosing an treating those underlying medical issues.

The Creighton Model is especially effective for these purposes, which is why a lot of people advocate trying out the different methods and taking full advantage of them. Sometimes the underlying medical issues can’t be treated “easily”–I’ve had surgery to address some of mine–but many of them can be treated with outpatient procedures, lifestyle/dietary changes, hormone testing/management, vitamin regimens, etc., to help make a woman’s charting easier by addressing her problems, whatever those might be. I’m not saying that there is a perfect answer for everyone, but I definitely do not agree that with NFP “there is a high probability of things just going wrong”. This is not borne out by research into the modern methods of NFP.

Most mainstream OB-GYNs say “there must be a problem” and suggest sterilization or the Pill as the cure-all treatment, when in reality there are many things that can be done to identify and treat the medical issues that lead to difficulty with using NFP to achieve or avoid pregnancy.
Well I am no expert in nfp so maybe your right…but it just seems to me that when your trying to determine your fertility level by watching your bodies signs that anything that could mess with your bodies symptoms could potentially throw off the signs and lead to mistakes. I guess I just find it hard to believe that all these people that say nfp doesn;t work for them…really just haven;t tried the right method. Sure some…but what about the rest? What goes wrong with them? I donlt deny that nfp can be very effective if used right…but I still think the chance of something going wrong despite correct usage is still decent. see I changed it from high probablity! 😛
 
Well I am no expert in nfp so maybe your right…but it just seems to me that when your trying to determine your fertility level by watching your bodies signs that anything that could mess with your bodies symptoms could potentially throw off the signs and lead to mistakes. I guess I just find it hard to believe that all these people that say nfp doesn;t work for them…really just haven;t tried the right method. Sure some…but what about the rest? What goes wrong with them? I donlt deny that nfp can be very effective if used right…but I still think the chance of something going wrong despite correct usage is still decent. see I changed it from high probablity! 😛
I guess I wasn’t clear. If NFP doesn’t work for someone, that means that their body probably isn’t working for them either. The solution to this is not to throw out NFP, but to fix the body.

Yes, NFP relies on watching your body’s signs. If those signs are unclear, there are a wide variety of treatments that can help make them clearer. Usually there are underlying issues causing unclear fertility signs–disorders such as PCOS or endometriosis, hormone imbalances, vitamin/nutritional deficiencies, and even lifestyle choices. The highly scientific modern methods of NFP (such as the Creighton Model) are now accompanied by treatment protocols for these issues that help restore a woman’s health, with the beneficial effect of making her charts easier to interpret. For me, the Church’s wisdom in her rules on NFP has led me straight to the realization that these “rules” lead to HEALTHY living.

As far as pregnancy, I don’t know “what goes wrong” for some users of NFP, but I think at least in part it might have to do w/ these underlying problems that are indicated by charting going untreated. From my reading on the subject, I think it’s likely that the majority of “unplanned pregnancies” while using NFP are due to user error, either in making (or fudging) the observations or in using a fertile day while “trying to avoid”. They could also be due to using the wrong method for one’s body. In the end, though, I don’t think the probability of “things going wrong” is any higher w/ NFP than it is for other forms of birth control.
 
I had to laugh out loud at the person who suggested the OP certainly could not be doing it right since he and his wife had 4 kids in 5 years. We had 5 in 5 years! And yes, I exclusively breastfed all of them. In fact, I nursed right up until the next one was born in several cases. My periods returned anywhere from 6 weeks to 3 mos postpartum, despite nursing AROUND the clock. So much for LAM! I NEVER offered a bottle before 6 mos. We did not even use a pacifier for our first 3. Our 3rd was a 25 week preemie, so that does make the spacing a bit closer than it should have been. (3 kids in 27 mos should not be physically possible…but it was!). But suffice it to say, I now have a 7yo, a 5 1/2yo, a 4 1/2 yo, a 3 1/2yo, and a 20mos. And I am sure #6 will be conceived soon. My OB begged us to give my body a break. I have several health issues that arise during pregnancy, making the pregnancies difficult and high risk. However, he knows that we will never do anything to take God out of the picture. We have been abstaining during my fertile periods for the past 20 mos since we delivered our “baby” but we have now decided it has been enough of a break and we are feeling the call to be open to more.

As for the OP, my only advice is to continue to pray. I understand your feelings that NFP has “failed” you. My last 3 were conceived during what I was CERTAIN were safe times. I followed the rules, we waited until after the 3rd dry day, and then had intercourse. However, it seems that I had not already ovulated as we thought, or maybe I ovulated again…who knows. Regardless, I now have 5 children, 4 of whom certainly were not “planned” but could not be more loved or wanted had they been planned. In fact, I look at my kids and think back to our “plans” of having 1 every 2-3 years, and I wonder which one(s) we would not have right now. I can’t imagine my life without any of them. That is what led us to throw away “our plans” and live by God’s plans. He alone knows what is best for our family, and we trust fully in Him to provide for us. No, it is not always easy. I will be the first to admit that there have been many days where I cry myself to sleep. Days that I scream at my kids because I am simply at the end of my rope. But I continue to pray for the grace to parent well. My mantra is, “God, you blessed us with these precious children. Now, please bless ME with the grace I need to be a mother worthy of making you proud.” I have found that this simple prayer works wonders. I am much calmer now than I was when I only had 3. I have much more patience. Yes, I still have bad days…who among us does not? But if you had asked me 3 years ago if I would have been considering a number 6, I would have laughed in your face. It is amazing the blessings and graces you will receive when you fully submit to God. So please, do not give up yet. God is not finished with you. He may not have more kids planned for you, but my contracepting, you are completely shutting Him out. Spend some time in front of the Blessed Sacrament. Pray. Go to confession. Pray some more. Most importantly, trust in God.
 
I had to laugh out loud at the person who suggested the OP certainly could not be doing it right since he and his wife had 4 kids in 5 years. We had 5 in 5 years! And yes, I exclusively breastfed all of them. In fact, I nursed right up until the next one was born in several cases. My periods returned anywhere from 6 weeks to 3 mos postpartum, despite nursing AROUND the clock. So much for LAM! I NEVER offered a bottle before 6 mos. We did not even use a pacifier for our first 3. Our 3rd was a 25 week preemie, so that does make the spacing a bit closer than it should have been. (3 kids in 27 mos should not be physically possible…but it was!). But suffice it to say, I now have a 7yo, a 5 1/2yo, a 4 1/2 yo, a 3 1/2yo, and a 20mos. And I am sure #6 will be conceived soon. My OB begged us to give my body a break. I have several health issues that arise during pregnancy, making the pregnancies difficult and high risk. However, he knows that we will never do anything to take God out of the picture. We have been abstaining during my fertile periods for the past 20 mos since we delivered our “baby” but we have now decided it has been enough of a break and we are feeling the call to be open to more.

As for the OP, my only advice is to continue to pray. I understand your feelings that NFP has “failed” you. My last 3 were conceived during what I was CERTAIN were safe times. I followed the rules, we waited until after the 3rd dry day, and then had intercourse. However, it seems that I had not already ovulated as we thought, or maybe I ovulated again…who knows. Regardless, I now have 5 children, 4 of whom certainly were not “planned” but could not be more loved or wanted had they been planned. In fact, I look at my kids and think back to our “plans” of having 1 every 2-3 years, and I wonder which one(s) we would not have right now. I can’t imagine my life without any of them. That is what led us to throw away “our plans” and live by God’s plans. He alone knows what is best for our family, and we trust fully in Him to provide for us. No, it is not always easy. I will be the first to admit that there have been many days where I cry myself to sleep. Days that I scream at my kids because I am simply at the end of my rope. But I continue to pray for the grace to parent well. My mantra is, “God, you blessed us with these precious children. Now, please bless ME with the grace I need to be a mother worthy of making you proud.” I have found that this simple prayer works wonders. I am much calmer now than I was when I only had 3. I have much more patience. Yes, I still have bad days…who among us does not? But if you had asked me 3 years ago if I would have been considering a number 6, I would have laughed in your face. It is amazing the blessings and graces you will receive when you fully submit to God. So please, do not give up yet. God is not finished with you. He may not have more kids planned for you, but my contracepting, you are completely shutting Him out. Spend some time in front of the Blessed Sacrament. Pray. Go to confession. Pray some more. Most importantly, trust in God.
In the creighton method, you must wait until the end of the 4th day.
 
The numbers are for an average, healthy female. I don’t think that you can expect the same effectivness if there is an underlying medical problem. Some women also have an early return to fertility; I have a friend who has 4 children all spaced exactly one year apart.
Hey I know about having some medical problems. My wife has this lovely problem where, when pregnant or during major hormone shifts, her body likes to throw clots into her lungs. She’s also has deficiencies in iron and folic acid and that, coupled with her being very fit and frankly skinny her whole life, let to extremely long cycles. So yeah, I know there are extenuating circumstances that can disrupt. And yes, there are early returns to fertility.

However, you cannot, of course, rely on LAM after six months or after first menstruation. So then it’s back to other methods and since CM methods can be tough with the “background” CM caused by nursing, I’d probably go with something like Marquette which uses LH test strips and can be coupled with CM/temp signs. You just have to know what will work and like other posters have indicated, that takes some serious effort and yes, probably some annoyingly long periods of abstinence while it all gets sorted out.

So I know there are situations that aren’t the norm. I’m living it right now as well.
 
Hey I know about having some medical problems. My wife has this lovely problem where, when pregnant or during major hormone shifts, her body likes to throw clots into her lungs. She’s also has deficiencies in iron and folic acid and that, coupled with her being very fit and frankly skinny her whole life, let to extremely long cycles. So yeah, I know there are extenuating circumstances that can disrupt. And yes, there are early returns to fertility.

However, you cannot, of course, rely on LAM after six months or after first menstruation. So then it’s back to other methods and since CM methods can be tough with the “background” CM caused by nursing, I’d probably go with something like Marquette which uses LH test strips and can be coupled with CM/temp signs. You just have to know what will work and like other posters have indicated, that takes some serious effort and yes, probably some annoyingly long periods of abstinence while it all gets sorted out.

So I know there are situations that aren’t the norm. I’m living it right now as well.
Being able to figure things out assumes that you have a spouse who has drank the NFP Kool-aid and is willing to abstain for however long it takes to get all the details ironed out. When it is the man is left trying to encourage NFP it can be difficult, if not impossible, since it is the woman who holds all the cervices.

Marquette method might give you a couple of safe days if you are willing to put in all the effort. In my mind there is no real difference between using NFP and complete abstinence so it hardly seems worthwhile though.
 
Drank the NFP Kool-Aid? Really? Even the oh-so-fine folks at Planned Parenthood have natural methods listed as true modern methods of family planning. But despite the flippant way you delivered the message, you are right. If the wife is not willing to put in the effort to actually follow through, the husband is in a bit of a quandary, no? Of course, if she’s not willing to spent a few moments in the restroom doing CM examination and LH test strips well, you’ve likely got bigger problems.
 
Drank the NFP Kool-Aid? Really? Even the oh-so-fine folks at Planned Parenthood have natural methods listed as true modern methods of family planning. But despite the flippant way you delivered the message, you are right. If the wife is not willing to put in the effort to actually follow through, the husband is in a bit of a quandary, no? Of course, if she’s not willing to spent a few moments in the restroom doing CM examination and LH test strips well, you’ve likely got bigger problems.
I think “drank the NFP Kool-Aid” is pretty accurate based on the nearly-religious fanatacism some have about the effectivity of NFP. Despite good faith efforts, sometimes it still just plain doesn’t work. some people (not most, thankfully) think that when they find a sollution to their unique NFP problem, that everyone will be able to, with effort, find a sollution to their own unique NFP problems. Statistics are just that, statistics. NFP is not perfect in 2010 and no method claims to be, yet some anonomous web-posters seem to think that is is. Airliners are a statistically safe method of travel, but you wouldn’t see a news story about a plane crash and say “Plane crash eh? Highly unlikely.”

I am the NFP proponent in my marriage, but I have to confess, if my wife wanted me to perform an in-depth daily examination of something that I had to swab out of my penis, so that I could have sex less than I could in a method of my own choosing that my own conscience was okay with, I’d be something less than thrilled.
 
I guess I wasn’t clear. If NFP doesn’t work for someone, that means that their body probably isn’t working for them either. The solution to this is not to throw out NFP, but to fix the body.

Yes, NFP relies on watching your body’s signs. If those signs are unclear, there are a wide variety of treatments that can help make them clearer. Usually there are underlying issues causing unclear fertility signs–disorders such as PCOS or endometriosis, hormone imbalances, vitamin/nutritional deficiencies, and even lifestyle choices. The highly scientific modern methods of NFP (such as the Creighton Model) are now accompanied by treatment protocols for these issues that help restore a woman’s health, with the beneficial effect of making her charts easier to interpret. For me, the Church’s wisdom in her rules on NFP has led me straight to the realization that these “rules” lead to HEALTHY living.

As far as pregnancy, I don’t know “what goes wrong” for some users of NFP, but I think at least in part it might have to do w/ these underlying problems that are indicated by charting going untreated. From my reading on the subject, I think it’s likely that the majority of “unplanned pregnancies” while using NFP are due to user error, either in making (or fudging) the observations or in using a fertile day while “trying to avoid”. They could also be due to using the wrong method for one’s body. In the end, though, I don’t think the probability of “things going wrong” is any higher w/ NFP than it is for other forms of birth control.
I have to agree with your post here. 👍

I remember reading, on another forum, a post by a qualified Billings instructor with many years experience. She stated nearly every time someone came to her with a “Billings Baby” and she asked to see their charts, she (or the people that study the method, they send these charts off to them for scientific study for their method) could see either flat out user error or that the participants bent the rules a little.

I am currently dating a woman who had cancer. We discussed artifical birth control at length. I stated that not only was it immoral for the unitive/procreative aspects, that it increases chances of cancer as a side effect. She already has a pre-disposition for cancer - She does not want to go through that ordeal again.
 
I think “drank the NFP Kool-Aid” is pretty accurate based on the nearly-religious fanatacism some have about the effectivity of NFP. Despite good faith efforts, sometimes it still just plain doesn’t work. some people (not most, thankfully) think that when they find a sollution to their unique NFP problem, that everyone will be able to, with effort, find a sollution to their own unique NFP problems. Statistics are just that, statistics. NFP is not perfect in 2010 and no method claims to be, yet some anonomous web-posters seem to think that is is. Airliners are a statistically safe method of travel, but you wouldn’t see a news story about a plane crash and say “Plane crash eh? Highly unlikely.”

I am the NFP proponent in my marriage, but I have to confess, if my wife wanted me to perform an in-depth daily examination of something that I had to swab out of my penis, so that I could have sex less than I could in a method of my own choosing that my own conscience was okay with, I’d be something less than thrilled.
Not sure if someone already asked this, but did your wife have her charts evaluated after she became pregnant? CCL will evaluate charts for STM users to see what went “wrong.” I hate to use that word, but you know what I mean. When I was having an extremely long cycle once, I sent my chart to CCL headquarters and they gave me some feedback as to what was probably going on in my body.
 
Re: the chart evaluations following pregnancy…

The Creighton Model also does pregnancy evaluations, not only for their own statistical records, but so the couples can learn exactly what led to their pregnancy. Sometimes couples think they are following the rules perfectly, and they really are not. Sometimes they observed a sign of fertility but did not count it as such. Sometimes they have sex in the morning of the 4th day rather than the evening. Sometimes women just do not make observations as frequently as they should, and missing one observation means that they could miss noticing fertile mucus and change the day from an infertile to a fertile day. There are some “method errors,” but honestly they are rare, and a couple is not going to know if their pregnancy was due to “user error” unless they consult with professionals and have their charts reviewed.

This is yet another reason why an instructor-based method (Creighton, Billings, and Marquette) is SO important for long-term success with NFP. You can’t learn NFP from a book and expect it to work perfectly for you. I’m not saying that’s what the people on this thread who have had “surprises” have done, but I’ve found it’s quite common to refer people on this forum to a book or a website to learn NFP, and there are plenty of threads with CAF users asking for clarity and advice re: their symptoms. This is inadequate instruction and is likely to lead to difficulties in using NFP, including unintended pregnancies.

This is why I am especially cautious when it comes to the sympto-thermal method, because in some cases there simply is not adequate, ongoing instruction in the method to enable user success. Couples are given the “rules” and told to go chart and make sense of their cycles, and I know that for me and my medical issues this would have just led us to confusion and frustration. This is not the case with all couples, but is all the more reason for a sympto-thermal method-using couple to seek out an instructor-based method such as Creighton.

Consulting with NFP professionals on a regular basis is very helpful when a woman’s body and patterns of fertility change, such as in the postpartum period. An experienced, knowledgeable, well-trained instructor can help her make sense of her fertile patterns and address underlying causes so that she and her husband can use the method according to their intentions. As I said before, the goal is a healthy woman in tune with her healthy body, and it really is clear to me that women need a trained instructor to help her make sense of her body and its signs.
 
Drank the NFP Kool-Aid? Really? Even the oh-so-fine folks at Planned Parenthood have natural methods listed as true modern methods of family planning.
There is so much more to being a NFP Kool-Aid drinker than simply believing in the effectiveness of natural methods of birth control. You have to see NFP as a gift from up above, as something that can heal every physical and marital ill. Any problems with NFP simply reveal problems within yourself or your marriage – it is simply impossible for a gift as great as NFP to be a challenge. Any calls to extended periods of abstinence, from several months to several years, seem to be embraced with an enthusiasm and acceptance of God’s will that can only be rivaled by the Virgin Mary herself. Somebody, on the other hand, who sees NFP as a particularly diabolical torture device will not be as thrilled and might see abstinence as a welcome retreat from the madness.
 
There is so much more to being a NFP Kool-Aid drinker than simply believing in the effectiveness of natural methods of birth control. You have to see NFP as a gift from up above, as something that can heal every physical and marital ill. Any problems with NFP simply reveal problems within yourself or your marriage – it is simply impossible for a gift as great as NFP to be a challenge. Any calls to extended periods of abstinence, from several months to several years, seem to be embraced with an enthusiasm and acceptance of God’s will that can only be rivaled by the Virgin Mary herself. Somebody, on the other hand, who sees NFP as a particularly diabolical torture device will not be as thrilled and might see abstinence as a welcome retreat from the madness.
NFP is far from being a “diabolical torture device,” but anyone that honestly sees it as a marital cure-all and thoroughly enjoys embracing very prolonged periods of abstinence is almost certainly crazy.
 
Hey I know about having some medical problems. My wife has this lovely problem where, when pregnant or during major hormone shifts, her body likes to throw clots into her lungs. She’s also has deficiencies in iron and folic acid and that, coupled with her being very fit and frankly skinny her whole life, let to extremely long cycles. So yeah, I know there are extenuating circumstances that can disrupt. And yes, there are early returns to fertility.

However, you cannot, of course, rely on LAM after six months or after first menstruation. So then it’s back to other methods and since CM methods can be tough with the “background” CM caused by nursing, I’d probably go with something like Marquette which uses LH test strips and can be coupled with CM/temp signs. You just have to know what will work and like other posters have indicated, that takes some serious effort and yes, probably some annoyingly long periods of abstinence while it all gets sorted out.

So I know there are situations that aren’t the norm. I’m living it right now as well.
All reliable methods are CM methods. All 4 listed (billings, creighton, sympto, and marquette) are based on cervical mucous.

Because cm is the primary indicator of fertility. all other symptoms are for cross-check only. cm may get wonky, but it has some kind of a reason for it (cervical eversion, infection, allergies, etc). That is why this sign is so good is because it speaks so much about the health.
 
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