I’m looking at Evan McMillan. He looks to be pro-life, though without much political experience (not that lack of political experience has hindered Trump from winning the nomination). He’s in a statistical tie with Clinton and Trump in Utah. He could actually win that state. And if winning that state results in neither Clinton or Trump winning 270 electoral votes, then the decision goes to the House to choose from the top three candidates. With the GOP in charge of the House, would they roll the dice on McMillan or roll the dice on Trump? It’s hard to say, but at least there would be a chance.
Joe,
McMillan will not even see a single EC vote.
Historically, the EC votes for one of the R or D candidates.
NewsWeek: Why Third-Party Candidates Are Doomed—At Least This Year (read more)
known in political science as Duverger’s law after French sociologist Maurice Duverger. That’s because a party or candidate can win a sizable chunk of the vote in a given district or state and still walk away with nothing—no seats or delegates, depending on the race—because they didn’t win the most votes among the candidates.
AFAIK: Maine and Nebraska are the only states that do not follow the “winner takes all” votes. Thus, even if McMillan has a slight statistical lead if he doesn’t have the most votes, then one of the others will get the EC for Utah (for example say only 100 people voted in Utah: HC=34, EM=33; T=33 then HC wins ALL of the Utah EC votes).
Believe it or not, learned about Duverger’s law in my PolySci class in college several decades ago… The prof used it to point out that if we voted for a third party candidate, it was as if we voted for which ever D or R was the most favored… he still advocated voting and voting one’s conscience and viewpoint, “vote as you will… just vote!”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (See the latest here) has been very accurate
As of Oct 13 2016: Demarcate 341; Republican 197; No toss-ups
Utah’s 6 votes are predicted to go to the Republican party - and in any case are not enough to really effect the 270 rule given the east/west-coast EC votes (about 232 not counting SC and GA which tend to go to the R-party) tend to go to the D-party. Only NE and ME show split votes and with only 9 between them not enough to swing to the R party.
Too many Christians are voting D-Party ticket and they just don’t get it… that once HC is in office, we, as Americans, will lose our first amendment rights (especially Catholics - IMHO - it will be a miracle if HC doesn’t sign in to law or issue some executive order requiring all Catholic Churches to be burned to the ground!), amongst other rights.
So anyway… as my PolySci prof said: “vote as you will… just vote!”
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may God have mercy on us all
