Potential Civil War?

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I’m just curious - given the divide that the US is in today, how likely or unlikely that we could, given 5,10,20,30,40,50 years from now, we could go through another civil war? Who would the sides be? Which states would suceed?

Why do I entertain this thought? Well logically, if a people get tired of a at least seemingly incompent and corrupt government, how long will a nation’s people’s paitience last?

I’d just like other people to observe what they’ve noticed and if it’s a trend to watch out for.
Barring any unforeseen cataclysmic event, I’d say the odds are nil that civil war will come to the USA. Even the most malcontent among us are unwilling to risk their lives and goods for principle here at home. However, a common “civil” war of morality vs immorality is already underway, IMO.
 
Well the supreme court comes to mind :rolleyes: and also the bills that have lately been going through congress.
what about the USSC? and, what bills, in particular do you think have been passed illegally? I’m not following your argument.
 
All you have to remember is that if Fed govt cut off all funds to any given state, they would come back like whipped puppies… not to mention, if they refused to defend (yes, fed gov’t as in the military could stop protecting a state that succeeded) every terrorist group would want to move in to get close to the US.
Not necessarily
Some states pay far more into the coffers than they receive.

Florida gets a little more than it contributes but the other 3 big states, California, Texas, and New York all pay more than they get. (and they pay a lot) If a sizable grouping of the contributor states decides to go its own way the federal government is in trouble.

The extremes are New Jersey which gets only $0.55 in federal spending for each dollar paid to Washington and New Mexico which gets $2.00 for very $1.00 (those are the same folks who think that Yucca Mountain is some sort of imposition upon them)
If I lived in New Jersey (and I did for 20 years) I would be screaming

So it is quite possible for some areas to (in theory) exist economically independent from the other states.
Oddly, the two secessionist movements mentioned above are in states that benefit from the Union. (as my dear father always says “they have a loaf of bread under each arm, an mouthful of cake, and they’re crying”)

As to the OP. There is a lot of talk about how device politics are nowadays but what we have now is nothing compared to the past.
The election of 1800 is often billed as the Second American Revolution. It was nasty beyond all get out.
And the antics in Washington in the 1840s and 50s including such highlights as the beating of Senator Sumner by Congressman Brooks are just astounding.
 
Not necessarily
Some states pay far more into the coffers than they receive.

Florida gets a little more than it contributes but the other 3 big states, California, Texas, and New York all pay more than they get. (and they pay a lot) If a sizable grouping of the contributor states decides to go its own way the federal government is in trouble.

The extremes are New Jersey which gets only $0.55 in federal spending for each dollar paid to Washington and New Mexico which gets $2.00 for very $1.00 (those are the same folks who think that Yucca Mountain is some sort of imposition upon them)
If I lived in New Jersey (and I did for 20 years) I would be screaming

So it is quite possible for some areas to (in theory) exist economically independent from the other states.
Oddly, the two secessionist movements mentioned above are in states that benefit from the Union. (as my dear father always says “they have a loaf of bread under each arm, an mouthful of cake, and they’re crying”)

As to the OP. There is a lot of talk about how device politics are nowadays but what we have now is nothing compared to the past.
The election of 1800 is often billed as the Second American Revolution. It was nasty beyond all get out.
And the antics in Washington in the 1840s and 50s including such highlights as the beating of Senator Sumner by Congressman Brooks are just astounding.
Very interesting points, thank you for your contribution! 👍

Politics may not NOW be AS devisive as it was in the past, BUT COULD IT BE LATER?

When you think about it, all these years since the very conception of our nation, WE’VE ALWAYS BEEN AS “STATES” WORKING TOGETHER. Not some “whole” country as one. States do have the right to leave the Union, and in essence form a new country. If people who cared realized this, there may be much greater talk about breaking up. Also people may be slow about it 'cause they don’t want to seem unpatriotic. I’m sure talking about secession is on par with betrayal, as it was initially when the states began to break up during the CW.
 
All you have to remember is that if Fed govt cut off all funds to any given state, they would come back like whipped puppies… not to mention, if they refused to defend (yes, fed gov’t as in the military could stop protecting a state that succeeded) every terrorist group would want to move in to get close to the US.
Actually, there are two states that would do rather well if they were to secede: California and Texas. Both are contributor states that send more money to Washington than they get back in funding and services. Actually, if either one of these states seceded, it could conceivably cripple the rest of the US. California, for example, has the largest ports on the West Coast and is already in the top 10 economies in the world (I hear that California is either #7 or #5 in the world). That makes California the gateway to the Pacific Rim in terms of trade. Texas has the oil…'nuff said…

And, of course, if either or both seceded, amusingly, it woudl be for polar opposite reasons ideologically considering Texas tends right-wing/convervative and Califlornia tends left-wing/progressive.
 
Very interesting points, thank you for your contribution! 👍

Politics may not NOW be AS devisive as it was in the past, BUT COULD IT BE LATER?
Maybe but I don’t see an issue that folks are willing to take up arms over
When you think about it, all these years since the very conception of our nation, WE’VE ALWAYS BEEN AS “STATES” WORKING TOGETHER. Not some “whole” country as one.
In the view of some maybe
I would submit that the vast majority sees us as one nation (under God) rather than 50
States do have the right to leave the Union, and in essence form a new country.
I believe that issue was settled quite clearly in 1865.

It is like the Hotel California… you can check in but you can never leave.
If people who cared realized this, there may be much greater talk about breaking up. Also people may be slow about it 'cause they don’t want to seem unpatriotic. I’m sure talking about secession is on par with betrayal, as it was initially when the states began to break up during the CW.
Article IV section 1 of the federal constitution clearly states that individual states are subordinate to the national government. Therefore no motion passed by a state legislature can trump a federal one.

I wonder what would happen if Congress decided to expel a state from the Union?
 
Just curious, but to you folks who think there could be a civil war, let me ask this . . . what would the issue(s) be? 🤷
 
Maybe but I don’t see an issue that folks are willing to take up arms over
But I’m sure there was a time when the colonies, when they started out after the American Revolution, didn’t think that slavery would one day be something big they will fight over. Time will tell.
In the view of some maybe
I would submit that the vast majority sees us as one nation (under God) rather than 50
Most I’d think would think this that we’re only one and not 50-in-1.
I believe that issue was settled quite clearly in 1865.
The states that seceeded were supresed, but that doesn’t mean someone else would try again.
It is like the Hotel California… you can check in but you can never leave.
then they would shoot their way out, lol. 😃
Article IV section 1 of the federal constitution clearly states that individual states are subordinate to the national government. Therefore no motion passed by a state legislature can trump a federal one.
Article IV
Section 1
Full Faith and Credit shall be given in each State to the public Acts, Records, and judicial Proceedings of every other State. And the Congress may by general Laws prescribe the Manner in which such Acts, Records and Proceedings shall be proved, and the Effect thereof.
Where does it say here that states can’t leave or reject the consitution and form their own, or that they can’t leave?
I wonder what would happen if Congress decided to expel a state from the Union?
That would be interesting. I think people would take it real personal, like they’ve been told “you’re no longer one of us, you are not American anymore!”
 
Just curious, but to you folks who think there could be a civil war, let me ask this . . . what would the issue(s) be? 🤷

Abortion - Like slavery, Abortion is today’s most controversial moral/political issue. We’ve had Roe v Wade for 34 years now, both sides can/are very passionate about it - which could build into war. 1st Amendment rights of pro-lifers are especially under constant threat from the more politically correct pro-abortion side. Abortion hurts society, somthing people could be willing one day to break from the union so that they could rule on their own to eliminate it for good.

Gay Marriage - perhaps not as paramount but closely follows abortion, gay marriage is another lighning rod for heated debate and controversy. Likewise anti-gay marriage conservatives are constantly under the threat of having their 1st Amendment rights stripped.

With strong-armed liberals telling conservatives to “tolerate” their immorality and therefore weakening the nation, people may just say one day “THAT’S IT!!” and break off.

Public schools are beginning to indoctrinate kids from kindergarden into thinking that gay marriage is okey.

Federal Power - If power becomes too great, too controling, and too unchecked (Liberals may be ESPECIALLY guilty in wanting to make people see their way even if they - the non-liberals - don’t like it.), people may become convinced to take things into their own hands and tear it down. People who’ll want to do that will think that they are the TRUE Americans, who’ll renew america from it’s aging comunistic government, like the shedding of old skin to bring forth new.

Immorality - many conservative states may come to the conviction that the only way they could truely change directions in terms of moral decline is to break from the Union, so that they aren’t told by a liberal Supreme Cort/Congress/White house that they have to accept doom and gloom and stay put.

Now there still could be a secession and not a civil war, if people don’t have the energy to fight to preserve the Union (as it was for the North fighting to keep the South in the Union during the CW)

Now could it be that the 4 issues that I’ve brought up may take care of themselves through a conservative majority government? Sure! I hope so too, it’s better than war! But we shouldn’t be afraid to go to war if we have no choice. There is a provision given for Catholics in the CCC to engage in war if the conditions are met:
2309 The strict conditions for legitimate defense by military force require rigorous consideration. The gravity of such a decision makes it subject to rigorous conditions of moral legitimacy. At one and the same time:
  • the damage inflicted by the aggressor on the nation or community of nations must be lasting, grave, and certain;
  • all other means of putting an end to it must have been shown to be impractical or ineffective;
  • there must be serious prospects of success;
  • the use of arms must not produce evils and disorders graver than the evil to be eliminated. The power of modem means of destruction weighs very heavily in evaluating this condition.
These are the traditional elements enumerated in what is called the “just war” doctrine.
The evaluation of these conditions for moral legitimacy belongs to the prudential judgment of those who have responsibility for the common good.
 
Sorry, but I don’t see any (or all) of those points as something that would cause a civil war.

First, you have to deal with apathy. Most of the population is content to float along with the tide.

Second, the nation is pretty evenly divided on abortion. And then it varies by what type of abortion and what stage of abortion. For example, the vast majority of the population favor a ban on late term abortion, but many of those folks who favor that ban are also in favor of early term abortions, the RU486 abortion pill, etc.

Federal authority is another issue that the nation is divided on, but it is not a big issue to the vast majority, only to the fringes. I’m a statist, so for me, federal authority is a problem, and I think a big problem, but if you ask 100 other people then I think you will find only a small % of the folks are hard core state’s right supporters, and only a small % on the extreme other side that are strong federalists (what we now would call socialists). The vast majority are in the apathetic middle.

And so goes with the other points. We are a very long way away from any civil war. I don’t see it in this lifetime, or the lifetime of my children unless there are some outside forces that alter our internal structure dramatically.
 
But I’m sure there was a time when the colonies, when they started out after the American Revolution, didn’t think that slavery would one day be something big they will fight over. Time will tell.
It was a very contentious issue
Franklin had already started abolitionist societies and the southern delegates made Jefferson remove his anti-slavery language from the declaration to get it passed.
10 years after the revolution Article I section 9 of the Constitution forbade the congress from banning the import of slaves for 10 more years so obviously that was an issue.

but what do you think is the current issue that will get worse over time?
Most I’d think would think this that we’re only one and not 50-in-1.
I’m not sure what you mean
The states that seceeded were supresed, but that doesn’t mean someone else would try again.
Well they can try……
Obviously a constitution is only as good as the ability of a government to enforce it.
then they would shoot their way out, lol. 😃
hardly a laughing matter
Where does it say here that states can’t leave or reject the consitution and form their own, or that they can’t leave?
Right there in the words. * The Congress may by general Laws prescribe the Manner in which such Acts, Records and Proceedings shall be proved, and the Effect thereof.*

What do you think that means?

Add to that Article I Section 10 and the question is quite clearly settled
That would be interesting. I think people would take it real personal, like they’ve been told “you’re no longer one of us, you are not American anymore!”
If it had already progressed that far there might be a lot of accusations about just who the “true Americans” were.

“true Americans” of course is alwys in the first person 😉

I’m no lawyer but it appears that for a succession to possibly be successful a state must petition the Congress for permission. There then would have to be some sort of negotiation regarding the disposition of federal property and (probably) the guarantee of the rights of those citizens of the State that wished to remain US Citizens.
(This of course raises the question whether Article IV Section 4 and Article I section 8 might also be impediments to succession)
 
the Civil War settled the question of secession.

I would actively support the preservation of the Union by any means, regardless of the reasons given for secession.
 
the Civil War settled the question of secession.

I would actively support the preservation of the Union by any means, regardless of the reasons given for secession.
From the United States Constitution:
Amendment X
The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people.
Since the Constitution doesn’t mention secession, it apears that power is reserved to the states.

Beyond that, how can a man make a contract that his six-times great-granson cannot dissolve?

And finally, if some my fellow citizens should wish to secede, while I might be opposed to it, and would do all I can to dissuade them – I surely wouldn’t kill them for it!
 

Since the Constitution doesn’t mention secession, it apears that power is reserved to the states.
the question of whether there is a legal basis for secession was decided long ago. there isn’t any.
Beyond that, how can a man make a contract that his six-times great-granson cannot dissolve?
argument from personal incredulity is a classic logical fallacy.
…And finally, if some my fellow citizens should wish to secede, while I might be opposed to it, and would do all I can to dissuade them – I surely wouldn’t kill them for it!
I’m not in the Service anymore, but if there were an actual rebellion, and it was my duty to do so, I’d have killed any rebel. as for now, I’d probably just sit back and enjoy the fun.
 
the question of whether there is a legal basis for secession was decided long ago. there isn’t any.
No. The Civil War simply proved the northern states were stronger than the soutern states – that’s hardly a constitutional decision.
I note you didn’t attept to actually answer the question.😛
I’m not in the Service anymore, but if there were an actual rebellion, and it was my duty to do so, I’d have killed any rebel. as for now, I’d probably just sit back and enjoy the fun.
I gather during your service you never had the misfortune to have to kill a human being.
 
No. The Civil War simply proved the northern states were stronger than the soutern states – that’s hardly a constitutional decision.
the Declaration of the Immediate Causes Which Induce and Justify the Secession of South Carolina from the Federal Union laid out SoCarolina’s legal basis for secession. I’d say the judgment of history – including 600,000 or so dead, has decided that SC was wrong for all purposes, constitutional and otherwise.

vern humphrey;2782617I note you didn’t attept to actually **answer [/quote said:
the question.😛

I didn’t think you were serious. in any event, you are vague. are you are asking how can a contract have binding effect on the nth generation after formation?

or are you asking how a “social contract” like the Constitution can be valid against persons who did not ratify it (directly or through representation)?
I gather during your service you never had the misfortune to have to kill a human being.
no. but I did have to think long and hard about whether I would have been a willing participant in a causal chain that could have killed millions.
 
the Declaration of the Immediate Causes Which Induce and Justify the Secession of South Carolina from the Federal Union laid out SoCarolina’s legal basis for secession. I’d say the judgment of history – including 600,000 or so dead, has decided that SC was wrong for all purposes, constitutional and otherwise.
Is that Fred History or Sam History who made the judgement?😛

Wars merely prove who is stronger. Might doesn’t always make right. And I see no reason to kill some 600,000 of my fellow citizens over a political dispute.
I didn’t think you were serious. in any event, you are vague. are you are asking how can a contract have binding effect on the nth generation after formation?
Not quite. Let’s try again: How can a man make a contract that his six-times great-granson cannot dissolve?
or are you asking how a “social contract” like the Constitution can be valid against persons who did not ratify it (directly or through representation)?
Not quite. Let’s try again: How can a man make a contract that his six-times great-granson cannot dissolve?
no. but I did have to think long and hard about whether I would have been a willing participant in a causal chain that could have killed millions.
There is a hell of a big difference between thinking about it and doing it.

Let me suggest you try something. Get a copy of Thucidides’ The Pelloponesian War, a copy of Xenophon’s The Anabasis, and Caesar’s Gallic Wars. Add to that MacArthur’s memoirs, John George’s Shots Fired in Anger, Alfred Bellard’s Gone for a Soldier, and so on. Get every single first hand account of war written by men who actually saw the elephant, who killed other men in battle, and tell me if any of them even tries to address the question of what it feels like to kill another man.

There’s a reason for that. And believe me, you don’t want to know what it is.

I cannot imagine wanting to kill my fellow Americans for wanting to secede.
 
Is that Fred History or Sam History who made the judgement?😛

Wars merely prove who is stronger. Might doesn’t always make right. And I see no reason to kill some 600,000 of my fellow citizens over a political dispute.
the thread discusses moral disputes, the Civil War had at least one major moral dispute.

one answer to your persistent misunderstanding is that the federal government never deviated from its position that session was unlawful, numerous wartime laws and policies (e.g., the emacipation proclamation) adhered to this point.

the fact that the rebel governments proclaimed independence did not vindicate the claim or raise to legitimacy. **because they lost the war. ** in contrast, the american revolution required a battlefield victory before independence took on legality. so in some instances, might makes right.

furthermore, from Texas v. White, 74 U.S. 700 (1868) a post-civil war supreme court decision that held that secession (here Texas) was “utterly without operation in law.”

"Considered therefore as transactions under the Constitution, the ordinance of secession, adopted by the convention and ratified by a majority of the citizens of Texas, and all the acts of her legislature intended to give effect to that ordinance, were absolutely null. They were utterly without operation in law. "

the Alaska Supreme Court cited this in Kohlhaas v. State (11/17/2006) sp-6072, 147 P3d 714 a 2006 decision, which disposed of some yahoo’s effort to remove alaska from the Union.

what more do you want? the question of secession is done with. secession fantasy time is over.
Not quite. Let’s try again: How can a man make a contract that his six-times great-granson cannot dissolve?


you need to ask the question intelligently. “dissolving” a contract is very ambiguous, it can have several meanings that I can think of. nevertheless,

terms of an agreement – covenants --written into a grant deed “run with the land” if they meet certain criteria. they can and do go on for generations. e.g, a grant deed to a city with the restrictive convenant that the land only be used as a park.

terms of a commercial contract go on as long as the contract exists, indefinitely if there is no self-limiting clause. parties can agree to terminate the contract, and there are numerous ways of ending it through litigation. a party is free, under anglo-american law, to breach the contract if willing to pay monetary damages (in most cases the courts will not require specific performance). contracts with individuals end when the individual dies, but with entities, like corporations, the contracts can go on as long as the entity and its sucessors exist.

regarding the secession fantasy: if you were born a citizen of the United States, the law presumes that you assent to the law of the land. you can’t break the law and argue that you didn’t expressly agree to the penal code. you can, however, renounce your citizenship if you find the laws here onerous and move anywhere that would have you.
There is a hell of a big difference between thinking about it and doing it.

Let me suggest you try something. Get a copy of Thucidides’ The Pelloponesian War, a copy of Xenophon’s The Anabasis, and Caesar’s Gallic Wars. Add to that MacArthur’s memoirs, John George’s Shots Fired in Anger, Alfred Bellard’s Gone for a Soldier, and so on. Get every single first hand account of war written by men who actually saw the elephant, who killed other men in battle, and tell me if any of them even tries to address the question of what it feels like to kill another man.

There’s a reason for that. And believe me, you don’t want to know what it is.

I cannot imagine wanting to kill my fellow Americans for wanting to secede.
George MacDonald Fraser’s *Quartered Safe Out Here * (account of combat in Burma) and William Manchester’s *Goodbye Darkness * (Pacific War) address your question.

I don’t need to read any account of what it is like to “see the elephant”. I am the son of a Navy combat veteran of WW2, and the nephew of a Army cavalryman killed in the Philippines in 1942. I’ve heard the stories first hand. in my time I was an unrestricted line officer in the United States Navy, fully qualified in surface warfare. I thought long and hard about what duty might require and then decided I could do it. thank God this was during the Cold War.

don’t misquote or misrepresent what I’ve said, even indirectly. I didn’t say I’d kill anyone for wanting to secede. I said I would have done so in the event of an actual rebellion if duty required it.
 
the Declaration of the Immediate Causes Which Induce and Justify the Secession of South Carolina from the Federal Union laid out SoCarolina’s legal basis for secession. I’d say the judgment of history – including 600,000 or so dead, has decided that SC was wrong for all purposes, constitutional and otherwise.
I have to side with vern humphrey on this, there was a legal right to secede (I think it was Virginia that refused to sign the constitution unless the right to secede was there).

As vern rightly pointed out, the war only proved which side was stronger (not better mind you). Not which side was right or what was legal.

It was only after the war that session was declared illegal, by what was apparently an extremly biased court.

Not everything about the Civil War is what it seems to be or what has been taught.
 
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