You have things precisely backwards. Reality fits the model because the model was designed to fit reality.
We’re using terminology in a different sense. A plot diagram is a model. When we observe how data appears (say weather patterns) on the diagram we say “the data fits the curve”. That’s a manner of expression. It means that we see an aspect of reality that “conforms to a pattern”. It wouldn’t make much sense to explain that “the wind doesn’t really come down into your software and align itself to your chart!”
We’re looking for evidence. We don’t change the plot diagram to fit the data – the diagram is a fixed model. It is intended for prediction. We then observe how the dots are displayed on the chart. They’re either totally random, or they are in a shape/line form of some kind.
When we see the data on a chart forming an extremely regular pattern (the pattern of sound waves in music), that is evidence of something non-random.
That’s how we look at survey data, for example. We want to know if there is design or meaning in the pattern. We can tell if there is no message at all – because the pattern is random.
So again, we don’t change the model to fit reality. Then it’s not a predictive model. The prediction either works or it doesn’t. We don’t go back and change the model and then claim victory for the prediction that occurred. Yes, we can refine the model to improve it but that’s different.
This is rather as if you imagine a puddle waking up one morning and thinking, ‘This is an interesting world I find myself in — an interesting hole I find myself in — fits me rather neatly, doesn’t it? In fact it fits me staggeringly well, must have been made to have me in it!’
The shape of a puddle can be explained by known natural laws. If a puddle formed the perfect shape of a hexagon then it would require an explanation beyond what known laws can produce.
Remember that we can have no direct observation of reality. All we can ever have is the model inside our heads. That is why the brain-in-a-jar or Matrix hypothesis is impossible to refute, but the actual existence of the external reality must be assumed.
Ok, that’s true. But we work from reasonable assumptions rather than absolute experience of reality – and we can get some agreement from other humans about what it means.
You’re right – we could be completely mistaken about everything we experience, but that’s why we look for common ground in our understanding so we can, at least, communicate what we do experience and develop the human experience.
From that, we trust our judgements. But it is built on trust. We use that every day.
Mathematics is initially built on reality. When you put two more rocks on a pile of three rocks then you get a bigger pile with five rocks. Mathematics expresses this as 3 + 2 = 5. I agree that many parts of mathematics do not directly correspond with reality, they are purely logical constructions. The physicists leave those parts to the mathematicians.
Right. Mathematics was invented for some basic modelling of reality. It worked well enough. But there were surprises when scientists discovered that math was very successful in explaining the universe. That wasn’t an intuitive thing – and it still is not explained today. Many scientists came to the conclusion that the universe was designed to be understood by human beings.
Mathematics is a useful tool in building models of reality. That does not mean that mathematics was actually used to construct reality. An architect can design a building on a piece of paper. The actual building is made out of concrete, not out of paper.
Agreed.
Why is the quality of the model important? All scientific theories fall short of the reality they model. While I agree that the Trinity picture was not a very good model, it was a model, and it illustrated (sorry!) my point about the existence of a designed model not implying design in the object modelled.
Yes, but you were proving a different point. I didn’t claim that the existence of any model necessarily implies design of anything.
On your Doug Adams example: The model he’s using is very weak.
His model is basically: “Puddles have various shapes.” Yes, that’s true. That model fits the data 100% of the time. But there’s no precision. Obviously, a much more difficult problem is what shape will the next puddle take? That would require some understanding of the amount of rain expected and the shape of the land, etc.
That kind of model might only be accurate 30% of the time – but it’s a much higher quality observation and conclusion.
So, to model the Trinity we need something much more sophisticated than a painting. Is that really an accurate model of the Divine nature? No – it’s just a very rough simulation of the reality.
But beyond that, we’ll get very confused because the data that we have about the Trinity comes from revelation – not from nature. We know facts about the Trinity from revelation (even if you don’t believe the content you can recognize what some of revealed facts are).
The existence of the model, no matter how accurate, or inaccurate, says nothing about the design, or not, of the object modelled.
I don’t follow that. How would we know that something was designed or not?
Yup, the hole fits the puddle exactly. The hole must have been made just for this puddle. You have put the cart before the horse: the models are designed to fit reality, not vice versa.
We’re probably not clear about what is meant by models.
The hole “model” fits the reality “puddle”, exactly. That’s the opposite of what I said. The reality (water), fits the hole exactly the way the hole that I created (model) was planned. Therefore, the puddle gives evidence of having been designed.
When you divert a river, the water fits the model. It’s not the model fitting the river.
When you build a house, the reality (wood) fits the model. You don’t change the model to fit the wood.
If you find logs in a stream that fit the model of a dam – you know the dam was designed. Because logs do not normally fit into a model of a constructed dam when left to drift randomly.
Yes, we can observe and improve our model. But that’s different than using the model to measure reality. If I predict that the price of gold will go up next month, I did that from a model I created which observed and measured gold prices. The model predicts that gold will go down two months, and then up the next month. The prices (reality) fit the model 100% of the time. So, I can make a prediction.
If the model begins to not-predict the pricing, then it can be changed – so yes, you will adjust your model based on what happened in the past.
But there is no reason to think that any model can be made to fit reality. If it was, then there would be no problem predicting the stock market, for example.
We don’t change the model every month to fit the previous month’s data. We want to see if the data will fit our predictive model.
That’s what casinos use to determine if someone is counting cards or otherwise trying to cheat the game. They’re looking for a pattern in the data. If the data (reality) fits the pattern, then they know they have some intentionality (design).
They want to see if the data will fit the model. Otherwise, if they created a model that fit the data they would never be able to distinguish a pattern.