Pruss on Abortion and Probability

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Catholic philosopher, Alexander Pruss, has written a short, but fascinating essay on abortion. You can read it for yourself, here: alexanderpruss.blogspot.com/2009/09/abortion-and-probability.html

The basic suggestion is that we can assume, for the sake of argument, that there is a 95% chance that aborting a fetus is morally permissible. This means that there is a 1/20 chance that an innocent person’s life is taken. Now, suppose that every American instantaneously took a 1/20 chance of ending their lives. Statistically, this would mean that fifteen million people would die. Given that this result would be a moral catastrophe, it follows that any action that is 5% likely to terminate an innocent person’s life is morally wrong; and since fetuses have a 5% chance of being innocents with moral standing*, it follows that abortion is morally wrong.

I found this to be a very interesting way of thinking about the issue. Any thoughts?

*Of course, the 5% is arbitrary, but it seems reasonable to say that pro-choice arguments aren’t strong enough to grant them more than 95%.
 
punkforchrist said:
Catholic philosopher, Alexander Pruss, has written a short, but fascinating essay on abortion. You can read it for yourself, here: alexanderpruss.blogspot.com/2009/09/abortion-and-probability.html

The basic suggestion is that we can assume, for the sake of argument, that there is a 95% chance that aborting a fetus is morally permissible. This means that there is a 1/20 chance that an innocent person’s life is taken. Now, suppose that every American instantaneously took a 1/20 chance of ending their lives. Statistically, this would mean that fifteen million people would die. Given that this result would be a moral catastrophe, it follows that any action that is 5% likely to terminate an innocent person’s life is morally wrong; and since fetuses have a 5% chance of being innocents with moral standing*, it follows that abortion is morally wrong.

I found this to be a very interesting way of thinking about the issue. Any thoughts?

*Of course, the 5% is arbitrary, but it seems reasonable to say that pro-choice arguments aren’t strong enough to grant them more than 95%.
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Thoughts… most anti-abortion people like to hinge on the morality of killing the fetus. However, even those that fight for abortion rights don’t like that the fetus dies. The reason abortion was legalized again was not based on a purely moral decision… the courts didn’t think to themselves “how can we kill more babies?” Just keep that in mind.

books.google.com/books?id=eDaVWUEsC3MC&lpg=PA65&ots=aL3KXSP7Mw&pg=PA68#v=onepage&q=&f=false
 
I agree, but this wasn’t an essay that focused on whether or not abortion should remain legal. A thing, like marital infidelity, can be both legal and morally impermissible.
 
To me, using statistics to make moral decisions is a serious sin in itself.

When the few elite choose to control the masses, they have little choice but to sin. Statistics provides rationality to such presumptuousness so prolongs the sinners demise, but hey, it isn’t my world and they certainly didn’t ask me. 😃
 
liquidpele said:
the courts didn’t think to themselves “how can we kill more babies?” Just keep that in mind.
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Sure, but that’s the end result.

That’s a pretty good article, but statistics is off in that you can use numbers to twist things any which way, and so I have to agree with James on this.
 
Each fetus wouldn’t take a 5% chance on becoming a person, though (as long as all abortions were before a certain stage in the pregnancy), there would be one “lottery drawing”, if you want to think of it that way.
 
punkforchrist said:
Catholic philosopher, Alexander Pruss, has written a short, but fascinating essay on abortion. You can read it for yourself, here: alexanderpruss.blogspot.com/2009/09/abortion-and-probability.html

The basic suggestion is that we can assume, for the sake of argument, that there is a 95% chance that aborting a fetus is morally permissible. This means that there is a 1/20 chance that an innocent person’s life is taken. Now, suppose that every American instantaneously took a 1/20 chance of ending their lives. Statistically, this would mean that fifteen million people would die. Given that this result would be a moral catastrophe, it follows that any action that is 5% likely to terminate an innocent person’s life is morally wrong; and since fetuses have a 5% chance of being innocents with moral standing*, it follows that abortion is morally wrong.

I found this to be a very interesting way of thinking about the issue. Any thoughts?

*Of course, the 5% is arbitrary, but it seems reasonable to say that pro-choice arguments aren’t strong enough to grant them more than 95%.
Click to expand...
interesting way too look at it, but the murder of an unborn by another man is wrong in any circumstance other than self defense, there is no argument whatsoever that can make that right.
 
punkforchrist said:
*Of course, the 5% is arbitrary, but it seems reasonable to say that pro-choice arguments aren’t strong enough to grant them more than 95%.
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Probability is properly used to quantify random events. For example, a die has a one-sixth chance of coming up “5” (or any of the other faces).

Using probability to quantify ignorance, as you are doing here, puts you in a state of mathematical sin, albeit venial.
 
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