Natural populations of guppies were subjected to an episode of directional selection that mimicked natural processes. The resulting rate of evolution of age and size at maturity was similar to rates typically obtained for traits subjected to artificial selection in laboratory settings and up to seven orders of magnitude greater than rates inferred from the
paleontological record. Male traits evolved more rapidly than female traits largely because males had more genetic variation upon which natural selection could act. These results are considered in light of the ongoing debate about the importance of natural selection versus other processes in the paleontological record of evolution. {article summary} …
We analyzed the response to selection for just the age and size at maturity in males and the age and size at first parturition in
females because these traits responded to the manipulation in both experiments. For each trait, we estimated the response to
selection (R) as the difference between the mean of the trait for lab-reared guppies from the control and experimental populations
(9) (Table 1). We then used R to quantify the relative rate of evolution in terms of darwins (10, 11). The estimated rates of
phenotypic evolution range from 3700 to 45,000 darwins (Table 1). They are similar in magnitude to rates that have been obtained
by artificial selection and four to seven orders of magnitude greater than those observed in the fossil record …
If evolution can be so fast, why does it appear to be so slow in the fossil record? First, evolution is only sustained in response to a changing environment (18); when a new optimum is attained, no more evolution is expected [El Cedro River males in this study (19)]. Second, if environmental conditions vary erratically, so will patterns of evolution, as seen in Gala´pagos finches (20). Evaluating evolution with the fossil record averages across intervals of no change, intervals of rapid change, and possibly
includes reversals in the direction of change, yielding an estimate of rate averaged over the entire interval (11). The net effect could well be no measurable change in morphology, or “stasis.” On the other hand, sustained directional selection can support far more rapid directional change than seen in the fossil record.
The evidence from studies of microevolution (19, 20) bears on the current debate over micro- versus macroevolution and the patterns of change recorded in the fossil record. In the fossil record, there is a wellestablished pattern of periods of little or no change (stasis) punctuated by brief intervals of rapid change associated with the origins of new taxa. Some have argued that selection
among individuals within populations (natural selection) cannot account for these large-scale trends in evolution (21). Specifically,
Gould and Eldredge argue for the necessity of bursts of speciation followed by species selection to sustain the rapid change associated with punctuations in the fossil record (21). Our work cannot address the efficacy of mechanisms other than natural
selection, but it extends our understanding of what is attainable through this process. It is part of a growing body of evidence that
the rate and patterns of change attainable through natural selection are sufficient to account for the patterns observed in the
fossil record (18) …