This isn’t a question that can be decided a priori, in isolation from all other factors.
Lacking the personal charism of infallibility, or better yet direct contact with the mind of God, we have to look at the historical fruit of each position. There are certainly good reasons for thinking that the Papacy is divinely instituted. But there are also excellent reasons for thinking that Western Christianity has erred in some significant ways in the past millennium. It is very convenient for your case to insist that we should just dismiss all of these considerations if we think there are good reasons for believing the Papacy to be divinely instituted. But I do not think that this approach is the right one. Perhaps I am wrong in thinking the Papacy divinely instituted–I am, after all, personally fallible, whatever may be true of the Pope

. Or perhaps the Papacy may be divinely instituted without having received the charism of infallibility. Perhaps the Church suffers as long as Rome is not fully in union with Her.
This is of course repugnant to your ecclesiology, but that’s not a decisive factor until I (or the OP) decide to accept your ecclesiology

More to the point, many (perhaps most) of the Orthodox reject this possibility, insisting that they have all that is needed to be the Catholic Church without Rome.
Olivier Clement seems to hold this possibility, and he is apparently an Orthodox theologian in good standing, though I’m sure many Orthodox think he’s a heretic!
Edwin