I would tend to trust parish records more.
Unfortunately, parish records are not always a good gauge for Mass attendance. Although I am not a pastor myself, I know many pastors who routinely thin their parish registrations based upon whether or not there was any activity (read “donations”) over the past year. This keeps the number of parishioners lower so that they will not be assessed too high for the annual bishop’s appeal and other diocesan taxes. If a Catholic who lives within the parish boundaries wants a wedding or a baptism, and they haven’t used envelopes within the past year (whether or not they attend Mass weekly), they are re-registered, making it appear that there is a steady stream of “new parishioners” when in fact there may be relatively little activity. The current model used within many parishes is hat of the small business, and many numbers games are employed.
Pastorally speaking, low Mass attendance is at a crisis level today. Many parishioners attend Mass one, two, or three times a month, but not every week, and see nothing wrong with missing “occasionally” (if there is something more important to go to, like a sporting event), even though Holy Mother Church consistently teaches that it is a grave obligation (i.e., binding under the pain of mortal sin) to attend Mass every Sunday and Holy Day of Obligation. And when a priest admonishes his congregation, even quite gently, concerning the gravity of this obligation, it is usually met with a great deal of hostility.
It would be an oversimplification to say that the NO is responsible for declining Mass attendance. There were so many changes made without explanation in the 1960’s --regarding the Eucharistic fast, abstinence from meat, laws of fasting during Lent --as well as within the Mass, that many Catholics seemed to get the impression that all Catholic laws are arbitrary, and we can pick and choose from whatever we want. Hence, as Pope John Paul II put it, we have a crisis of obedience within the Church today.
In my experience, most of the people who regularly attend the TLM have already come to the conclusion that their relationship with God needs to be the most important thing in their lives. Many make great sacrifices to attend the TLM, driving for an hour or more, many with small children, to attend the Mass. Many are escaping irregular NO liturgies that they have found in their own parishes. In short, the percentage of committed Catholics attending any given TLM is probably much higher than what you find at your typical NO parish.
This is not to say there are not many, many committed Catholics attending NO Masses --there are! Some are travel great distances to hear the NO offered the way the Church intends and to hear an orthodox homily. Some stay in less than perfect circumstances because they know the value of the Mass. The Mass under either form has a general Mass fruit of infinite value, and to receive the Eucharist is a gift of inestimable worth.
My problem with the NO is not that it cannot be offered beautifully, but rather that it can be offered in a manner that does not adequately capture the sacredness inherent to the Holy Sacrifice
–rock Masses, folk Masses, polka Masses, Masses with liturgical dance–
are possible, and technically nothing has been done contrary to law. However, as we have all experienced, liturgical abuse is the norm today, and when you find a NO Mass where the priest offers it as the Church intends, you find the exception which proves the rule.
Because so many people have fought so hard to preserve the TLM, when you find one offered, it is usually quite reverent and according to the rubrics. The priests who offer it are often marginalized from many of their brother priest, who (as I was told by one of my brother priests), see it as the Mass “of schismatics and lunatics.” As I understand it, the Masses offered before Vatican II were often less than by the book, but since it was in Latin and the priest was facing away, few realized any abuse was occurring.
Pope Benedict XVI has, in my opinion, brilliantly suggested that perhaps the Ordinary and Extraordinary forms of the Mass can mutually enrich each other, leading to greater reverence and respect for the rubrics within the typical NO Mass. It shouldn’t be about a competition between the NO and the TLM, but rather what leads more people to holiness.