Republican voters??

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It would be easy to say, ‘make a law’, but we have no evidence, despite multiple large studies over the last decade, to suggest that secular law has any impact on abortion rates world wide at all.
You ‘make a law’ simply because protecting innocent human life is a legitimate function of government and is the right thing for government to do.

Besides, I do think that the constitutionalizing of abortion rights by our Supreme Court in 1967 did have a negative impact on abortion rates (it was not 1.2 million per year prior to Roe v. Wade.)
 
Particularly since the Holy Grail of overturning Roe v. Wade does not have much in the way of evidence suggesting it would be effective. For example:

nytimes.com/2007/10/12/world/12abortion.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

On the flip side, we have quite a bit of evidence suggesting a strong link between poverty rates and abortions…
Changing the law is a must, but not the sole answer. In another context the Vatican said the civil law, for better or worse, is a guiding principle in society. What does it say to us that we have codified child killing into law?
 
Assuming your figures are correct for the sake of argument, do you seriously propose there is a connection between deaths from abortion and refugees in Iraq?

If we killed more children, would there be fewer refugees?
You missed the point entirely. The numbers in no way negate the morality of either.
There is no valid, peer-reviewed study that shows a correlation between health insurance and access to health care.
You come up with some of the most inventive statistics. There are over 400 published and peer reviewed studies regarding the correllation just in the US alone, since 2000.

The WHO uses over 11,000 studies and official data sets to do its regular rankings around the world. We are 37th in terms of outcome (everything from longeivity to access to to proper care). All 36 above us have higher rankings in terms of access to non emergency health care. The only catagory we rank #1 in is spending, which at least 7 peer reviewed studies suggest is the necessity of a huge chunk of our population to rely on emergency services, which 31 peer reviewed studies, the CDC, the NIH, and even the Commerce department agree reflects growing need and a shrinking pool.

5 unrelated studies of possible note - peope who rely on Fox News and talk radio are roughly 3 times as likely to incorrectly answer objective questions about health care in the US as people who rely on other sources of information…
 
Particularly since the Holy Grail of overturning Roe v. Wade does not have much in the way of evidence suggesting it would be effective. For example:

nytimes.com/2007/10/12/world/12abortion.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

On the flip side, we have quite a bit of evidence suggesting a strong link between poverty rates and abortions…
First of all overturning Roe v. Wade will not reduce the number of abortions by even 1. That is because the issue in Roe v. Wade is not the criminality of abortion but who decides its status (we the people or the supreme court). Nevertheless you still must reverse Roe v. Wade because it is absolutely boneheaded constitutional law that totally federalizes the abortion issue. After the abortion issue is (rightly) returned to the states, it is up to each individual state to determine the criminality of abortion.

Second of all, comparing abortion rates in Uganda and Eastern Europe is an apples to oranges comparison. A more valid comparison might be abortion rates in the US immediately prior to and immediately after Roe.
 
Changing the law is a must, but not the sole answer. In another context the Vatican said the civil law, for better or worse, is a guiding principle in society. What does it say to us that we have codified child killing into law?
I do not disagree. I agree with the Church that the law’s existance alone is a moral problem. But that does not change the secular evidence that a legal change seemingly has little effect. As the Church notes:
In this context [limiting the harm of secular laws], it must be noted also that a well-formed Christian conscience does not permit one to vote for a political program or an individual law which contradicts the fundamental contents of faith and morals. The Christian faith is an integral unity, and thus it is incoherent to isolate some particular element to the detriment of the whole of Catholic doctrine. A political commitment to a single isolated aspect of the Church’s social doctrine does not exhaust one’s responsibility towards the common good. Nor can a Catholic think of delegating his Christian responsibility to others; rather, the Gospel of Jesus Christ gives him this task, so that the truth about man and the world might be proclaimed and put into action.
If I encapsulate my entire pro-life belief into a single litmus test involving secular law, and ignore evidence about the actual effect of other Church teachings on abortion, I am ignoring my Christian obligation.
 
I do not disagree. I agree with the Church that the law’s existance alone is a moral problem. But that does not change the secular evidence that a legal change seemingly has little effect. As the Church notes:
Changing the law will save lives. You argue that numbers do not matter, right? The change in law will save more than one life. It is a must. And, the Church says so.
If I encapsulate my entire pro-life belief into a single litmus test involving secular law, and ignore evidence about the actual effect of other Church teachings on abortion, I am ignoring my Christian obligation.
The test is not some academic point. The test, in this context, is deciding whether we will further abortion and break our friendship with Christ by formally cooperating with evil. The choice is obvious, no?
 
Refusal to answer the question is noted.
I refused to answer nothing…I did answer. Your point was no point at all.

Per your personal interpretation that is what Aquinas suggests. I prefer the clear teachings of the Church,

Its not my personal opinion actually but that of a priest in good standing.

They may very well cause one not to vote fo ar pro-life candidate but they can never cause one to vote for a Pro–abortion Canidate.
 
Second of all, comparing abortion rates in Uganda and Eastern Europe is an apples to oranges comparison. A more valid comparison might be abortion rates in the US immediately prior to and immediately after Roe.
That won’t give you the result you want. Legal abortion started to soar prior to Roe v. Wade when 15 states adopted more permissive abortion laws. It peaked about about 1.6 million, then dropped substantially in the 1990s to roughly were it is today (though we are seeing evidence of a reversing trend).

Illegal abortion has been extremely hard to track since the widespread use of antibiotics. Before the law changes in 15 states, abortion related maternal deaths were at about 200, last year they were at 7. In the mid 1940s, they appear to have been over 5,000.

What we tend to forget is that the abortion laws themselves were really only in effect for a relatively short period. As late as the 1870’s abortion advertisements ran in most major newspapers in the US. Like prostitution, legality had not yet fully driven the matter underground, only keywords were used (much as “escort” or “massage” is still used for prostitution today).

The most compelling evidence suggests that abortions were lower between 1950 and 1965, not because of prohibition, but because of rapid growth in the middle class. This would possibly explain why the numbers because to soar in the late 1960s and early 1970s and why the pendulum actually shifted. It would also explain why we saw a sharp drop in the 1990s (somehow I suspect that few people here would want to give Clinton the credit).

Again, look at the numbers: 60% at or near poverty, over half already mothers. Blacks and Hispanics - hence Christains and Catholics, are disproportionately represented. The number jumps to 80% if we raise the bar to just a few times the poverty level. Perhaps Jesus addressed abortion in his earthly ministry after all.
 
Changing the law will save lives. You argue that numbers do not matter, right? The change in law will save more than one life. It is a must. And, the Church says so.
But at what other costs? An unjust war, systematic oppression of minorities and the poor? Forced abortions and profiteering in Saipan? The indigent dumped out of hospitals on the street to die?

I think you are still missing my point. I vote wholly pro-life. I no longer accept the agrument that I must be pragmatic and compromise. I am not called to do what is expedient, I am called to do what is right.

And, for all the talk, I see little in the way of results from decades of ‘pragmatism’.
 
That won’t give you the result you want.
What was the abortion rate in the year prior to Roe v. Wade and the abortion rate in the year immediately after Roe v. Wade.

I propose that the difference in these two abortion rates is a direct result of Roe v. Wade.
 
A Democrat President would almost certainly appoint Supreme Court judges who are pro-abortion / pro-choice. Just look at the Supreme Court judges appointed in the past. Look at Ruth Bader Ginsburg, for example.

Whereas a Republican President would most likely appoint pro-life judges. No guarantee, but most likely. Some of the judges appointed by Republican Presidents have been disappointments. But more have been of the caliber of John Roberts, Samuel Alito, and Clarence Thomas, for example.

A Democrat controlled Senate would refuse to confirm pro-life Justices on the Supreme Court.

So, if you want abortion to go away, vote for Republicans.

By the way, there is a Web site devoted to a discussion of how the Democrats are refusing to confirm Presidential nominations to various Federal courts.

Visit confirmthem.com/
 
What was the abortion rate in the year prior to Roe v. Wade and the abortion rate in the year immediately after Roe v. Wade.

I propose that the difference in these two abortion rates is a direct result of Roe v. Wade.
Prior to roe v wade the number of abortoins in the country was aprox 400,000 legal and illegal. Within 3 years of it being imposed on the countryit had increased to 1.5 million.
 
Prior to roe v wade the number of abortoins in the country was aprox 400,000 legal and illegal. Within 3 years of it being imposed on the countryit had increased to 1.5 million.
That is credible.

And of those 400K abortions, I would bet a high percentage of those were in states where it was already legal (a better comparison would be limit the states to where it was illegal prior to Roe…Roe changed nothing where it was already legal.

Well, so much for the theory that there is no correlation between the abortion rate of a population and the criminality of abortion.
 
No, what I am saying is that abortion is more important than how healthcare is funded, or whether we need certain social programs. Prudential issues are one thing. Killing innocent people is quite another.
The problem is that things don’t fit neatly into compartments. Secular law is unchanged, abortions drop 400,000 a year. We pass a new secular law and the decline slows, even reversing in some states…

If we never factor actual results into our decision making how can we say we are honoring any of our Christian obligations?
Which candidate supports murder of prisoners?
Among incumbants, it is easy to tell. Look at how they have voted. And, look at what they have refused to act on. With newcomers, it is hard to tell. Most tell you want they think you want to hear. For example, I’ll bet every GOP candidate in the country talk tough on gays, family values, and abortion, but we still have problems in public restrooms, a gay male escort getting a free pass into the White House pressroom for two years, and a lot of embarrassing connections to forced abortions for profit in campaign funding.
 
What was the abortion rate in the year prior to Roe v. Wade and the abortion rate in the year immediately after Roe v. Wade.

I propose that the difference in these two abortion rates is a direct result of Roe v. Wade.
See for yourself:

guttmacher.org/presentations/trends.pdf

You can also look at the original source material from the CDC. In terms of legal abortions, we are talking about a jump of 700,000 to 850,000 in total numbers.

But most notably, the slope does not change on either side of nation wide legalization, but just continues on a steady arch.

But we don’t know the total abortion rates, because they were, well, illegal and deaths were rare after antibiotics and plasma became readily available. Remember, the best data is that illegal abortions were being performed by doctors or medical technicians.
 
That is credible.

And of those 400K abortions, I would bet a high percentage of those were in states where it was already legal (a better comparison would be limit the states to where it was illegal prior to Roe…Roe changed nothing where it was already legal.

Well, so much for the theory that there is no correlation between the abortion rate of a population and the criminality of abortion.
It is “credible”, because it is what you already want to believe. But the number is essentially made up. The history is that pro-life groups were widely citing a study from 1981 that statistically calculated the number of illegal abortions pre-Roe v. Wade as 68,000 to 443,000, with a median estimate of 210,000 per year. Most folks used the 68-210, but never mentioned the 400+. However, scientific peers noted that the study could not be reconcilled with census data and some assumptions were challenged and the authors acknowledged that their numbers are undoubtedly flawed. Since then, you see the high number from the study pop up a lot, but it is just a number, pulled out of thin air - much like the 40 million, 50 million, etc. you just threw out earlier.

Most studies place the numbers significantly higher, but still are not very compelling. There just isn’t much data. Note that the Guttmacher institute, which I linked to above, won’t even cite illegal abortion data, merely noting that the studies vary wildly.

Some of the most compelling data comes from the late 1800’s and pre-1950 census data. Again, when just counting death certificates turns up thousands of abortion related deaths in a single year in the 1940s, it is clear that the greatest generation had reproductive issues as well. Compare that with the 200 or so just prior to Roe v. Wade (you’ll see the number 39 a lot, but that only includes the CDC Abortion Surveillence project, which focussed on legal abortions and did not utilize some sources prior to 1977, and still under reports abortions, for example in 2000 it reported just 847,000 abortions, but most research places the number closer to 1.2M for the same year).

However, even if we pretended that the made up number had any basis in reality, it, in of itself, cannot really prove anything. That is because the demographics of the country is not static, but runs in cycles. The most meaningful comparison of abortion rates is not total numbers, since even total population numbers, but what is called the incidence rate, often expressed as the number of abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44 (child bearing years).

The legal rate in the US was 16 pre-Roe v. Wade. It is 21 now. It soared to 29 in 1979 and has been decreasing ever since. We have observed from multiple studies for over a decade that the number is lower, on average, in countries with permissive abortion and contraception laws than in countries that have very stringent laws on both.

This has led to speculation that permissive secular laws actually reduce abortions. A thought that makes some conservative heads explode. What makes the recent study interesting is that a lot more information was indirectly collected from various record sources. This allowed the data to be compared in different ways not previously possible.

What the researchers found was that no statistical correlation could be found between legalization of abortion and the lower incidence rates. That is, they disproved the simple bigger>smaller comparison that seemed to support a pro-aboriton talking point. However, they did find a statistical correlation with poverty and one with access to contraception.

No significant theories as to why correlations exist or do not exist was presented. The study just collected a massive amount of additional data and showed that statistical correlations exist. Why there is are connections are subjects for further study.

If your idea of science is to take a made up number that sounds right to you and compare it to another number, with no regard for total populations or demographics, all the steps in trying to calculate the world as it actually is probably sounds pretty tedious. But that is the way science works.
 
Most studies place the numbers significantly higher, but still are not very compelling. There just isn’t much data. Note that the Guttmacher institute, which I linked to above, won’t even cite illegal abortion data, merely noting that the studies vary wildly.
OK.

So if we don’t really know how many illegal abortions were done in the U.S. prior to 1973, why should I believe that we know the number of illegal abortions performed in third world and Latin American countries at the present time.

Looking over the Guttmacher institue website, it is clear that they also have an agenda. Folks with agendas tend to cherry pick numbers.

But let’s say for grins and giggles the Guttmacher institute numbers are correct.

All that this would mean (if true) is what I have always felt, that the objective of the pro-life movement should not be limited simply to the criminalization of abortion. Instead, the objective of the pro-life movement should be a cultural change so that the culture rejects the practice of killing innocent unborn human life.

Of course if the culture reaches the point, it will have this rejection of killing innocent unborn human life codified somehow in its legal system (certainly the killing of innocent unborn human life will not be protected as it is today). And guess what, it will not be a problem because the culture has rejected the practice.

If you believe this is impossible, this is exactly what has happened with the practice of slavery.
]
 
Actually one thing about the Guttmacher web site interested me. They had graphs of all 50 states with their abortion rates compared to the national average.

So I decided to do a little non-scientific study. I wanted to know if intuitively there was a correlation between state abortion rates and state abortion restrictions.

Comment: There is a difference between causation and correlation. Causation is difficult to prove when many variables are in the equation. However, correlation just means there is a relationship between the two variables (in statistics correlation is a number between 0 and 1…the closer you are to 1 the higher the correlation). 0 and 1 are rare, usually you are somewhere in between.

It would also be interesting to study abortion rate and (state income level, how religious a state is, red/blue/purple voting pattern of state)

So what I did was for each of the 50 states I did an eyeball ranking in one of five categories compared to the national average (remember this is non-scientific). Then I went to the NARAL website (national abortion rights league or something like that). They graded each state A-F based on the amount of restrictions they placed on abortion (F being the most restrictive). So without further ado (again this is not scientific…but interesting and I believe revealing to some extent)

Abortion Rate Significantly Higher than National Average
  • California: A+
  • DC: B-
  • Nevada: A-
  • Hawaii: A
  • New York: A-
  • New Jersey: A-
Abortion Rate Slightly Above National Average
  • Maryland: A
  • Delaware: C
  • Florida: D
  • Massachusetts: C+
  • Rhode Island: D
Abortion Rate Near National Average
  • Connecticut: A
  • Michigan: F
  • Colorado: D
  • Illinois: C+
  • Oregon: A-
  • Washington: A+
Abortion Rate Slightly Below National Average
  • Arizaona: C+
  • Georgia: D
  • Kansas: D-
  • Virginia: F
  • Alaska: A-
  • North Carolina: D
  • Ohio: F
  • Texas: F
  • Vermont: A
Abortion Rate Significantly Below National Average
  • Alabama: F
  • Idaho: F
  • Indiana: F
  • Louisiana: F
  • Mississippi: F
  • Montana: A-
  • North Dakota: F
  • Oklahoma: D-
  • Pennsylvania: F
  • South Carolina: F
  • Tennessee: D+
  • Utah: F
  • West Virginia: B
  • Wyoming: D
  • Arkansas: F
  • Iowa: C
  • Kentucky: C
  • New Hampshire: B+
  • Maine: A
  • Minnesota: C
  • Missouri: F
  • Nebraska: F
  • New Mexico: B+
  • South Dakota: F
  • Wisconsin: F
 
Mozart,
Thank you for the research. There were few surprises. I think if
you were to do it by counties, our democrat counties in Texas
would show higher rates than the Republican ones. Despite our
restrictions here in Texas, many Judges (Democrat) rule that
kids don’t have to notify parents, etc. I’m sure that it isn’t
exclusively Democrat Judges, we have our share of liberal judges.

SoCalRC,
You sound and think like my very liberal brother and nephew, they
are also in Southern California. However, my brother left the church and my nephew is very far from it,too,so that is different.
 
I have taken Mozarts figures and expaned them to show who controls the State legislature in each State.

D=Democrat
R=Republican
S=Split

Abortion Rate Significantly Higher than National Average
  • California: A±D
  • DC: B-D
  • Nevada: A-S
  • Hawaii: A-D
  • New York: A-D
  • New Jersey: A-S
4 democrat 2 Split
Abortion Rate Slightly Above National Average
  • Maryland: A-D
  • Delaware: C-S
  • Florida: D-R
  • Massachusetts: C±D
  • Rhode Island: D-D
3 Democrat 1 Republican 1 split

Abortion Rate Near National Average
  • Connecticut: A-D
  • Michigan: F-S
  • Colorado: D-D
  • Illinois: C±D
  • Oregon: A-D
  • Washington: A+D
5 Democrat 1 Split

Abortion Rate Slightly Below National Average
  • Arizaona: C±R
  • Georgia: D-R
  • Kansas: D-R
  • Virginia: F-R
  • Alaska: A-D
  • North Carolina: D-D
  • Ohio: F-R
  • Texas: F-R
  • Vermont: A-D
6 Republican 3 Democrat

Abortion Rate Significantly Below National Average
  • Alabama: F-D
  • Idaho: F-R
  • Indiana: F-S
  • Louisiana: F-D
  • Mississippi: F-S
  • Montana: A-S
  • North Dakota: F-R
  • Oklahoma: D-S
  • Pennsylvania: F-S
  • South Carolina: F-R
  • Tennessee: D±S
  • Utah: F-R
  • West Virginia: B-D
  • Wyoming: D-R
  • Arkansas: F-D
  • Iowa: C-D
  • Kentucky: C-S
  • New Hampshire: B±D
  • Maine: A-D
  • Minnesota: C-DFL
  • Missouri: F-R
  • Nebraska: F-NON PARTISAN
  • New Mexico: B±D
  • South Dakota: F-R
  • Wisconsin: F-S
6 Republican 8 Democrat 8 Split
 
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