Saddam's WMD have been found

[buffalo]

MikeWM:

The thing which doesn’t make sense to me is, assuming Saddam had WMD, wouldn’t he have used them when fighting a war for his very administration and life? With the enemy at the gate, wouldn’t someone as nasty and mad as Saddam was just use everything he had?

Hmm, but he didn’t. I wonder if that’s because he didn’t have anything to use?

Mike

Nope - Saddam knew he would lose militarily to the US. He still believed he would be in power, afterwords… Once it was apparent that this would happen the WMD were moved across the border into Syria, to be used in the future. You will recall he also moved fighters there prior to the gulf war to protect them.

We have satellite photos showing the convoys, however the Duelfer report states that because they could not see inside the convoys they could not say for certain they were weapons. But ask yourself - what do you think were in those convoys?

 

[vern_humphrey]

MikeWM:

The thing which doesn’t make sense to me is, assuming Saddam had WMD, wouldn’t he have used them when fighting a war for his very administration and life? With the enemy at the gate, wouldn’t someone as nasty and mad as Saddam was just use everything he had?

Hmm, but he didn’t. I wonder if that’s because he didn’t have anything to use?

Mike

Saddam was afraid that if he used chemicals on the US, the US might respond by going nuclear.

And that’s no win for him!

 

[buffalo]

**** Saddam’s Personal Involvement
in WMD Planning****

Saddam: I want to make sure that—close the door please [door slams)]—the germ and chemical warheads, as well as the chemical and germ bombs, are available to the “concerned people,” so that in case we ordered an attack, they can do it without missing any of their targets?

Husayn Kamil: Sir, if you’ll allow me. Some of the chemicals now are distributed, this is according to the last report from the Minister of Defense, which was submitted to you sir. Chemical warheads are stored and are ready at Air Bases, and they know how and when to deal with, as well as arm these heads. Also, some other artillery machines and rockets (missiles) are available from the army. While some of the empty “stuff” is available for us, our position is very good, and we don’t have any operational problems. Moreover, in the past, many substantial items and materials were imported; now, we were able to establish a local project, which was established to comply with daily production. Also, another bigger project will be finalized within a month, as well as a third project in the coming two to three months that will keep us on the safe side, in terms of supply. We, Sir, only deal in common materials like phosphorus, ethyl alcohol and methyl [interrupted].

     Saddam: Etc. . . . this is not important to me.
  

     Husayn Kamil: So, Sir, regarding the germs and [he pauses].
  

     Saddam: And the Chemicals.
  

     Husayn Kamil: No, we have some of the chemicals available [interrupted].
  

     Saddam: So, we qualify that the missiles, by tomorrow, will be ready          on the 15th.
  

     Husayn Kamil: Sir, we don’t have the germs.
  

     Saddam: Then, where are they?
  

    Husayn Kamil: It’s with us.

more…

The Iraq Survey Group recovered this recording of Saddam and senior officials discussing the use of WMD. This discussion was part of a more general meeting which would appear from the content to have taken place during the second week of January, 1991. This is of particular interest as it provides a compelling demonstration of Saddam’s personal interest and involvement in WMD planning and preparation.

 

[MikeWM]

buffalo:

Nope - Saddam knew he would lose militarily to the US. He still believed he would be in power, afterwords…

Really? Why on earth would he think this? He may have had to have a public persona that he could defeat an invasion, but he must have known that he couldn’t stand against the whole US military. I can’t believe he was that mad. I can believe that he knew he would be defeated and release all manner of hell that he was capable of doing though, so I wonder why he didn’t.

Once it was apparent that this would happen the WMD were moved across the border into Syria, to be used in the future. You will recall he also moved fighters there prior to the gulf war to protect them.

Assuming for a moment that there were WMD and they went to Syria, what date(s) is this movement supposed to have happened? And if true, of course, that means that WMD have passed from somewhere dangerous we could keep an eye on, to somewhere dangerous we can’t keep an eye on. Doesn’t seem the best idea either.

On the other hand, the Iraq Survey group, for example, don’t think he had much or any WMD in the first place (in 2003, that is).

Mike

 

[MikeWM]

vern humphrey:

Saddam was afraid that if he used chemicals on the US, the US might respond by going nuclear.

And that’s no win for him!

True, good point, but I wonder why he’d care if he was going to lose anyway. Still, I am ascribing sensible rationality to him, which may be going a little far

Mike

 

[buffalo]

MikeWM:

Really? Why on earth would he think this? He may have had to have a public persona that he could defeat an invasion, but he must have known that he couldn’t stand against the whole US military. I can’t believe he was that mad. I can believe that he knew he would be defeated and release all manner of hell that he was capable of doing though, so I wonder why he didn’t.

Assuming for a moment that there were WMD and they went to Syria, what date(s) is this movement supposed to have happened? And if true, of course, that means that WMD have passed from somewhere dangerous we could keep an eye on, to somewhere dangerous we can’t keep an eye on. Doesn’t seem the best idea either.

On the other hand, the Iraq Survey group, for example, don’t think he had much or any WMD in the first place (in 2003, that is).

Mike

From the commission report:

***If WMD existed, Saddam may have opted not to use it for larger strategic or political reasons, because he did not think Coalition military action would unseat him.***If he used WMD, Saddam would have shown that he had been lying all along to the international community and would lose whatever residual political support he might have retained in the UNSC. From the standpoint of Regime survival, once he used WMD against Coalition forces, he would foreclose the chance to outlast an occupation. Based on his experience with past coalition attacks, Saddam actually had more options by not using WMD, and if those failed, WMD always remained as the final alternative. Although the Iraqi Government might be threatened by a Coalition attack, Saddam—the ultimate survivor—believed if he could hold out long enough, he could create political and strategic opportunities for international sympathy and regional support to blunt an invasion.

• Asked by a US interviewer in 2004, why he had not used WMD against the Coalition during Desert Storm, Saddam replied, “Do you think we are mad? What would the world have thought of us? We would have completely discredited those who had supported us.”
• Iraqi use of WMD would deeply embarrass France and Russia, whom has cultivated Iraq.
• Use of WMD during Operation Iraqi Freedom would serve to justify US and UK prewar claims about Iraq’s illegal weapons capabilities. Such a justification would also serve to add resolve to those managing the occupation

 

[vern_humphrey]

MikeWM:

True, good point, but I wonder why he’d care if he was going to lose anyway. Still, I am ascribing sensible rationality to him, which may be going a little far

Mike

Because he had a hope that even if he lost, he’d survive. He’s on trial now – if he’d used WMD on us, he’d have been dead long ago (or so he feared.)

 

[buffalo]

MikeWM:

Really? Why on earth would he think this? He may have had to have a public persona that he could defeat an invasion, but he must have known that he couldn’t stand against the whole US military. I can’t believe he was that mad. I can believe that he knew he would be defeated and release all manner of hell that he was capable of doing though, so I wonder why he didn’t.

A

From the same report:

Alternative Hypotheses on Iraq’s Nonuse of WMD During Operation Iraqi Freedom

The view has been advanced widely that if Saddam had WMD at the time of OIF, he would have used it. In the event, there are no indications that WMD was used during OIF.

If Iraq possessed WMD Saddam may have concluded, given his perception of the Coalition threat, he would not need to use WMD. Military commanders consistently over-reported their combat capability and Saddam had concluded most Iraqis would fight to defend the country. He may not have realized that his Regime could not be saved until it was too late to deploy CW from existing storage areas to operational forces. Saddam told his debriefer that it was clear to him, some four months before the war, that hostilities were inevitable. Despite this knowledge, it seems that Saddam and those around him misjudged the nature and intensity of the conflict. It is possible that Saddam’s public statements and those to his chief lieutenants were intended to reassure rather than confide.

• Former Director of Directorate of Military Intelligence, Staff Gen. Zuhayr Talib ‘Abd-al-Satar: “Two to three months before the war, Saddam Husayn addressed a group of 150 officers. He asked why the Americans would want to come here.

Former Minister of Defense Sultan Hashim Ahmad Al Ta’i: “We knew the goal was to make the Regime fall . . . . We thought the forces would arrive in Baghdad or outside Baghdad in 20 days or a month. We accepted that the cities on the way would be lost. All commanders knew this and accepted it. Saddam Husayn thought that the people would, of their own accord, take to the streets and fight with light arms, and that this would deter the US forces from entering the cities.”​

Former commander of the Nebuchadnezzar Republican Guard Division, Staff Maj. Gen. Hamid Isma’il Dawish Al Raba’i: “We thought the Coalition would go to Basrah, maybe to Amarra, and then the war would end . . . Qusay Saddam Husayn never took any information seriously. He would just mark on the map. He thought most of us were clowns. We pretended to have victory, and we never provided true information as it is here on planet earth. Qusay always thought he’d gain victory. Any commander who spoke the truth would lose his head.”​

Saddam’s draft speeches and public addresses conveyed this theme—an attack was unlikely, according to Tariq ‘Aziz.​

Saddam was convinced that a show of force would be sufficient to deter an invasion. The United States would seek to avoid another Vietnam, according to a former senior Ba’th party member.​

Saddam had concluded time was on his side and that the Coalition would never be allowed to attack, according to the former science advisor.​

 

[MikeWM]

Interesting and perfectly plausible explanations, those. Thanks.

Mike

 

[vern_humphrey]

# Saddam had concluded time was on his side and that the Coalition would never be allowed to attack, according to the former science advisor.

You may remember that there were news stories about how Saddam was feeling out other countries to see if they would offer him sanctuary.

At about the same time, the Canadian government informed us that money was flowing from the Iraqi embassy in Ottawa to “peace groups” in the US.

The “Coalition would never be allowed to attack” theory seems highly plausible.

 

[buffalo]

MikeWM:

Really? Why on earth would he think this? He may have had to have a public persona that he could defeat an invasion, but he must have known that he couldn’t stand against the whole US military. I can’t believe he was that mad. I can believe that he knew he would be defeated and release all manner of hell that he was capable of doing though, so I wonder why he didn’t.

Assuming for a moment that there were WMD and they went to Syria, what date(s) is this movement supposed to have happened? And if true, of course, that means that WMD have passed from somewhere dangerous we could keep an eye on, to somewhere dangerous we can’t keep an eye on. Doesn’t seem the best idea either.

On the other hand, the Iraq Survey group, for example, don’t think he had much or any WMD in the first place (in 2003, that is).

Mike

CIA can’t rule out WMD move to Syria

from the article:

Speculation on WMDs in Syria was fueled by the fact that satellite images picked up long lines of trucks waiting to cross the border into Syria before the coalition launched the invasion. Mr. Duelfer previously had reported that Syria was a major conduit for materials entering Iraq that were banned by the United Nations.

…Today, U.S. officials charge that Syria continues to harbor Saddam loyalists who are directing and financing the insurgency in Iraq. The Iraq-Syria relationship between two Ba’athist socialist regimes has further encouraged speculation of weapons transfers.
Several senior U.S. officials have said since the invasion that they thought WMD went to Syria.
Retired Marine Lt. Gen. Michael DeLong, the deputy commander of U.S. Central Command during the war, said in his book, “Inside CentCom,” that intelligence reports pointed to WMD movement into Syria.
In October, John A. Shaw, then the deputy undersecretary of defense for international technology security, told The Times that Russian special forces and intelligence troops worked with Saddam’s intelligence service to move weapons and material to Syria, Lebanon and possibly Iran.
“The organized effort was done in advance of the conflict,” he said.

more…