Science and Random Chance

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p.s. Anybody know the origin of the word ‘english’ in pool? As an Englishman, I watched some US pool a few years back and it took a while before I realised they meant ‘spin.’
The word “pool” means a collective bet, or ante. Many non-billiard games, such as poker, involve a pool but it was to pocket billiards that the name became attached. The term “poolroom” now means a place where pool is played, but in the 19th century a poolroom was a betting parlor for horse racing. Pool tables were installed so patrons could pass time between races. The two became connected in the public mind, but the unsavory connotation of “poolroom” came from the betting that took place there, not from billiards.
 
The point I was making - that you still don’t seem to have grasped, is that Brandy’s original post made an assertion regarding the origin of the universe that had, as its basis, an assumption that cannot be shown to be true. I was highlighting the logical error in using laws that we only know to exist since the inception of the universe, to postulate a cause for the universe.
I’m really beging to question whether or not you even understood the OPs argument, because your post misses the point. It doesn’t mean I entirly agree with the OPs argument, I don’t entirly agree as I’ve stated, but I also dont’ entirly disagree either.

His point is that he believes some people think the universe works on a principal of random chance. If such a prerson exists, then his post is very well rooted and serves as a pretty decent counter to that principal. You should actually be agreeing with it even if you don’t agree with theism (you don’t obviously). The universe doesn’t work on a principal of random chance, as the OP said. As the OP said, whatever randomness there is, it is contained with in a finite set of paramaters, even with a computers RNG for instance.

My problem with his argument isn’t the argument it’s self, it’s that I dont’ know that there is anyone who believes the universe works on a principal of random chance. I beleive his arguments are directed at someone who simply does not exist, or at least someone I hope doesn’t exist. That’s where I disagree with the OP.
Yes, it follows the laws of nature. There is no evidence for God’s existence,
Hello God Gene 🙂

time.com/time/covers/1101041025/

vatican.va/archive/ENG0839/__PQ2.HTM
I will look after them for their good, and bring them back to this land, to build them up, not to tear them down; to plant them, not to pluck them out.
I will give them a heart with which to understand that I am the LORD. They shall be my people and I will be their God, for they shall return to me with their whole heart.
And like the figs that are bad, so bad they cannot be eaten - yes, thus says the LORD - even so will I treat Zedekiah, king of Judah, and his princes, the remnant of Jerusalem remaining in this land and those who have settled in the land of Egypt.
Definitive proof of God? No. Just one more example of science meshing with the bible? Yep.
therefore no reason to suspect that he made any laws.I’m having trouble deciphering this comment, sorry.
It’s simple, as it’s spurious to claim you can intrisicly, scientifically prove Gods existance. It’s equally spurious to claim you can use the same method to prove his non-existance. Your arguments are quite colored by your faith in there being no God. If you’re really interested in being fair, drop your assuptions, take a step back and reevaluate the OP.
To clarify - my point was that the sheer number of artefacts and processes involved in the universe is such that, even if it is ultimately deterministic, from a human perspective random chance is everywhere. Random in that it would be impossible for us to define the limits of probability for a given event.
I don’t think we disagree here.
Again, you seem determined to misunderstand me. I’m happy to concede that if a being had those attributes it would be able to perform those tasks. That doesn’t lend any credibility to the existence of such a being.
It destroys your final comments in your post, utterly destroys them though doesn’t it? You started with the assumption there wasn’t a God. Based on your assumption, you then made a post suggesting it’s incredulas to believe that such a being could create the entirty of the known universe. You went a bridge too far my friend.
The flaw in your logic is that you are starting from an assumption that God exists and possesses those qualities, then stating that he could easily have created the universe. That is doubtless true, but it doesn’t remove the glaring logical error whereby you make an assumption (that God exists) that has absolutely zero supporting evidence. You seem to be reaching the conclusion that God created the universe because if he existed he would be able to do so. It’s like me saying that if I could defy the laws of physics then I could fly; therefore I can fly.
I think I made enough comments to cover this, have a great day.
 
You are correct - I was overly abrasive, for which I apologise.😊
Apology accepted. I think we all get very excited about our favorite topics and viewpoints from time to time and forget that there is a very real person sitting on the other end of the computer. 🙂
 
Scientists try to figure out the origin of the motion of the balls, without preconceptions. Theists assume there must have been a shooter and invent reasons why he played that particular shot. {QUOTE]

Wanstronian - this isn’t really true. Scientists start with a base assumption that if the balls move SOMETHING moved them - although they leave it open as to whether it was a person or a phenomena such as an earthquake. Our own laws of physics tell us nothing moves without something ACTING upon it.
 
I’m really beging to question whether or not you even understood the OPs argument, because your post misses the point. It doesn’t mean I entirly agree with the OPs argument, I don’t entirly agree as I’ve stated, but I also dont’ entirly disagree either.

His point.
Sorry to disappoint you, but the OP is me and I am feminine 🙂 The name Brandy might have given it away to some, but I understand it might also have been taken as the alcoholic beverage and not a real name. Courtsey
 
I’m really beging to question whether or not you even understood the OPs argument, because your post misses the point. It doesn’t mean I entirly agree with the OPs argument, I don’t entirly agree as I’ve stated, but I also dont’ entirly disagree either.

His point is that he believes some people think the universe works on a principal of random chance. If such a prerson exists, then his post is very well rooted and serves as a pretty decent counter to that principal. You should actually be agreeing with it even if you don’t agree with theism (you don’t obviously). The universe doesn’t work on a principal of random chance, as the OP said. As the OP said, whatever randomness there is, it is contained with in a finite set of paramaters, even with a computers RNG for instance.

My problem with his argument isn’t the argument it’s self, it’s that I dont’ know that there is anyone who believes the universe works on a principal of random chance. I beleive his arguments are directed at someone who simply does not exist, or at least someone I hope doesn’t exist. That’s where I disagree with the OP.
Yes, I do understand. However the post speculated the origin of the universe, not its current nature. I was simply pointing out the error.
Hello God Gene 🙂
Have you even read the article? Assuming you have, you clearly think that because people are genetically predisposed to believe in some form of invisible friend, that’s evidence that the invisible friend exists! You’re doing nothing to help your logical credibility
Definitive proof of God? No. Just one more example of science meshing with the bible? Yep.
Are you kidding? Because the bible makes reference to a human organ, that gives the story any credibility? I’ve honestly never seen anybody post such poorly-conceived thoughts on this forum.
It’s simple, as it’s spurious to claim you can intrisicly, scientifically prove Gods existance. It’s equally spurious to claim you can use the same method to prove his non-existance. Your arguments are quite colored by your faith in there being no God. If you’re really interested in being fair, drop your assuptions, take a step back and reevaluate the OP.
My ‘faith,’ as you put it, in the absence of God, is purely due to a total lack of evidence. You can suggest it’s an irrational faith just like a belief in God if you like, but this is a common theistic error: they assume a disbelief in God somehow takes faith. All it takes is common sense. I don’t mean to insult anyone by saying that, but it’s how it is. If you believe in something without evidence, then you should, in order to be consistent, believe in everything for which no evidence exists.
I don’t think we disagree here.
Hooray!!😉
It destroys your final comments in your post, utterly destroys them though doesn’t it? You started with the assumption there wasn’t a God. Based on your assumption, you then made a post suggesting it’s incredulas to believe that such a being could create the entirty of the known universe. You went a bridge too far my friend.
I did no such thing - I merely pointed out that starting with the assumption that something *does *exist, that has the power to create the universe, does not in any way **prove **the existence of that thing. If such an entity exists, and if it has those attributes, then of course it could create the universe. The point is that without evidence of such a thing existing, you cannot use it as any kind of serious option for the origin of the universe.
I think that yet again, this is a case of your logic failing you. Badly
I think I made enough comments to cover this, have a great day.
You’ve certainly made enough comments! None of them make much sense though!
 
Wanstronian - this isn’t really true. Scientists start with a base assumption that if the balls move SOMETHING moved them - although they leave it open as to whether it was a person or a phenomena such as an earthquake. Our own laws of physics tell us nothing moves without something ACTING upon it.
I thought that’s what I said!??
 
Quite so. If this is what the OP was trying to convey, I completely agree and apologise for my misunderstanding. There most certainly is a natural order to the universe.Interesting
That’s exactly what I was trying to convey. There is a natural order to the universe, and without it we couldn’t have science at all since science works only to the degree that there is a predictable, measurable, knowable order to things.

Now, take that bit of logic a step further. There are a whole LOT of people stating that the universe was created by random chance. These same people are trying to use science to prove it. You can’t - for the exact reason that science falls apart in the face of a random chance universe. The two are mutually exclusive to one another. The truth is that either we begin with the assumption of order and therefore assume that man can know the truth about it, or we MUST begin with the assumption that the origin is impossible to know and quit searching.

Since we are all agreed upon the fact that there is a natural order to the universe we need to also consider Newton’s second law of thermodynamics. This law of thermodynamics strongly indicates that for order to remain in any closed system there must be an agent or actor at work to maintain that order. That law says that left to its own devices the order present in a closed system - such as our universe - will gradually fall into chaos. Yet, ours does not.
 
Since we are all agreed upon the fact that there is a natural order to the universe we need to also consider Newton’s second law of thermodynamics. This law of thermodynamics strongly indicates that for order to remain in any closed system there must be an agent or actor at work to maintain that order. That law says that left to its own devices the order present in a closed system - such as our universe - will gradually fall into chaos. Yet, ours does not.
There’s no maintaining order where work is being done, and that applies to intelligent agents too – they are just as much subject to the *Second Law *any impersonal processes. There’s no beating the Second Law; entropy will stay the same or increase for a closed system, always, no exceptions.

See Maxwell’s Demon, and the Landauer Principle.

Left to is own devices, even including billions of intelligent, determined agents inside, working as hard and smart as they can, a closed system will inexorably trend toward maximum entropy. Being intelligent or smart doesn’t change this principle at all (it’s useful for making local organization and ordered systems in an open system that is part of the closed system, though!).

-TS

Edited to add: You say “ours does not”. Ours does. That’s the whole point of the Second Law. Even in the time you took to read this the universe slid a couple more notches on the ratchet toward oblivion.
 
That’s exactly what I was trying to convey. There is a natural order to the universe, and without it we couldn’t have science at all since science works only to the degree that there is a predictable, measurable, knowable order to things.

Now, take that bit of logic a step further. There are a whole LOT of people stating that the universe was created by random chance. These same people are trying to use science to prove it. You can’t - for the exact reason that science falls apart in the face of a random chance universe. The two are mutually exclusive to one another. The truth is that either we begin with the assumption of order and therefore assume that man can know the truth about it, or we MUST begin with the assumption that the origin is impossible to know and quit searching.
Well, I think you need to be little clearer about how the hypothesis that the universe originated by a random or quantum event is incompatible with the idea that the universe operates in a consistent and comprehensible way. I don’t know any scientist that thinks that the universe acts in an arbitrary or disorderly way - that would undermine the very epistemic foundations of his trade. Nevertheless, it is a perfectly acceptable hypothesis in cosmology to postulate the origin of the universe in a random quantum event. But people, and I think you, conflate different meanings of the term ‘random’.

Interestingly, we can predict the effects of some ensembles of genuinely random quantum events such as optical phenomena with surpassing precision whereas we are unable to predict the evolution of deterministic but chaotic events such as weather with anything like the same precision. Intelligibility is no talisman against randomness in the universe’s mechanisms, nor is determinism a guarantor of predictability.

Alec
evolutionpages.com
 
What you can predict is not random. It’s predictable.
I think you could use a course in statistical thermodynamics or quantum optics.

You are confusing the concepts of random and predictable as thoroughly as Christoph Schoenborn did.

As I pointed out, there are systems which are deterministic (and therefore not random) but which are practically unpredictable such as chaotic systems (where exquisitely tiny variations in the starting conditions lead to radically different and practically unpredictable evolutions of the system); and there are random events which are individually and fundamentally unpredictable, such as the behaviour of individual photons in Young’s experiment, but where the behaviour of ensembles of events is predictable by summation over histories and the probability distribution (so for example yielding the predicted intensity in Young’s fringes). There are hybrids of these where chaotic systems’ starting conditions are influenced by random quantum events yielding systems that are random and unpredictable.

It is true that the universe seems to operate according to consistent and comprehensible processes, but that certainly does not exclude random events either from its inception or its evolution. In fact, its behaviour at the quantum level has fundamentally random aspects.

Alec
evolutionpages.com
 
Quite right - the laws apply to our universe, so they can’t with any confidence, be used to postulate anything regarding the origin of our universe. However, this is what the OP did, so I find this statement difficult to reconcile with your next one…
I think you misunderstand the OP. The OP was arguing against the claim that “random chance” can account for the origin of the universe. Because the creation of the universe and the institution of natural laws at that time goes against every bit of science that we know (most notably the 1st Law of Thermodynamics), it by necessity was a supernatural event. That was the point of the OP, as I understood it. Random chance cannot account for the origin of the natural laws.
Interesting - what do you consider to be the ‘point’ of consciousness in a non-random universe?
To know, love, and serve the Lord God Almighty, and to share in His blessings of wisdom and free will. Think about it. If there was no God, then how would consciousness be an evolutionary benefit, and how/why would it arise? Yet if there is a God, the evolution of consciousness would be extremely beneficial, as the conscious organisms would be able to find the reason for and purpose to their existence.
I don’t think you can really consider an absence of laws to be a law. Your implication that someone would have had to say, “Let there be no laws” simply belies your belief that this same someone actually said, “Let there be laws X, Y and Z.”
Why not? Why is it so troubling to you that laws underlie every part of our existence, whether we are aware of them or not? Is it because you do not want to submit to the reality that there are things greater than yourself that are out of your control? You are absolutely right that I believe God is The Law, and the origin of all laws. That is the logical conclusion I have come to precisely because I realize I am subject to laws of all kinds–a realization I would not have come to had I not had consciousness, again leading back to the “point” of consciousness in a non-random universe. Does that make sense?

Keep seeking the truth, my friend.
 
I think you misunderstand the OP. The OP was arguing against the claim that “random chance” can account for the origin of the universe. Because the creation of the universe and the institution of natural laws at that time goes against every bit of science that we know (most notably the 1st Law of Thermodynamics), it by necessity was a supernatural event. That was the point of the OP, as I understood it. Random chance cannot account for the origin of the natural laws.
Yes, we’ve been around the houses on this, and we’re all on the same page now!
To know, love, and serve the Lord God Almighty, and to share in His blessings of wisdom and free will.
Well, there’s no real answer to this. You have assumed that purpose exists to support a belief that you already had. You’ve started with your assumption then made your worldview fit it.
Think about it. If there was no God, then how would consciousness be an evolutionary benefit, and how/why would it arise?
It’s clearly a benefit, I’m amazed you can’t see this. As for how it arose - the currently accepted theory of evolution is that random mutations occur and if they provide a survival benefit for their host, then that host survives to propagate the mutation. As for why it arose - there doesn’t need to be a reason.
Yet if there is a God, the evolution of consciousness would be extremely beneficial, as the conscious organisms would be able to find the reason for and purpose to their existence.
Again, you’re starting with your supernatural conclusion then finding reasons why natural phenomena support it. You’re basing your entire argument on an unproven assumption. You are being irrational.
Why not? Why is it so troubling to you that laws underlie every part of our existence, whether we are aware of them or not? Is it because you do not want to submit to the reality that there are things greater than yourself that are out of your control? You are absolutely right that I believe God is The Law, and the origin of all laws. That is the logical conclusion I have come to precisely because I realize I am subject to laws of all kinds–a realization I would not have come to had I not had consciousness, again leading back to the “point” of consciousness in a non-random universe. Does that make sense?
It’s not troubling to me at all, and I’ve never implied it is. What’s troubling to me is that people can say, “If something exists that could cause an effect that I can see, then that something MUST exist because I can see the effect,” and not see the gargantuan logical fallacy. It never occurs to them that the thing they happen to believe in might not actually be the thing that caused the effect, particularly as there’s no evidence that the thing they believe in, actually exists. It’s narrow-minded dogma at its worst and it hinders the progress of knowledge and discovery. It’s limiting behaviour that has no place in a modern intellect.
Keep seeking the truth, my friend.
You would do well to take your own advice.
 
It’s narrow-minded dogma at its worst and it hinders the progress of knowledge and discovery. It’s limiting behaviour that has no place in a modern intellect.
The irony of your statement, Wanstronian, is that most of the greatest discoveries of science have come from men and women for whom their faith was as real to them as your atheism is to you. In fact, the more studied you are in science the less likely you are to believe that there isn’t a God.

In an earlier post you and Touchstone both took me to task for saying that atheists substitute nothing for God, when you claim that you don’t say that God doesn’t exist just that it’s extremely unlikely. Yet you are narrow-mindedly eliminating Him as a possibility from every calculation you make. You never calculate on the “what if it’s true” side of the equation - isn’t that, by very definition, narrowing the mind by refusing to see a possibility or to acknowledge it because your own dogma - that God does not exist - will not allow it to be true?
 
The irony of your statement, Wanstronian, is that most of the greatest discoveries of science have come from men and women for whom their faith was as real to them as your atheism is to you. In fact, the more studied you are in science the less likely you are to believe that there isn’t a God.

In an earlier post you and Touchstone both took me to task for saying that atheists substitute nothing for God, when you claim that you don’t say that God doesn’t exist just that it’s extremely unlikely. Yet you are narrow-mindedly eliminating Him as a possibility from every calculation you make. You never calculate on the “what if it’s true” side of the equation - isn’t that, by very definition, narrowing the mind by refusing to see a possibility or to acknowledge it because your own dogma - that God does not exist - will not allow it to be true?
You just acknowledged that atheists allow for the existence of God, even if it’s highly unlikely. This not a dogmatic view, but a practical, corrigible one, that accepts the limitations of the view that God does not exist as always something short of certainty, and liable to overturning if, perchance, a god did deign to make itself manifest to man in some way that could be verified and tested in an objective way.

And yet, two sentences later, now it is dogma – that God does not exist. The contradiction is clear, and just like “atheists worship science”, is explainable as a kind of reflexive polemic – if unbelievers criticize Christians for deifying God, then they must in turn be similarly guilty of deifying something else (science, reason are common choices to plug in there); if unbelievers criticize Christians for being dogmatic, then by golly the unbelievers are going to be found to be just as dogmatic about something, too! Fair’s fair, and all that.

Look, the ‘what if it’s true’ path gets one nowhere without a healthy application of skepticism to the idea. Without that, anything is justifiable. This is especially problematic when the object of belief is a god that is supposed to be omniscient, omnipotent, and possessed of an impassible will. On those terms, “what if it’s true” means anything and everything is likely to be true if we just suppose it might be, because that god can make it so. There is no evidence that goes against it, even in principle, there is no universe we can imagine ourselves in where we can say “nah, god cannot obtain in that case”.

So God hasn’t been eliminated as a possibility in my view. He may exist – it’s a possibility that can’t be ruled out. But no reasonable basis to think so, and I do commend the “narrowing of the mind” to constraints of reasoning for those that are interested in pursuing real knowledge, and justifiable claim. Without that narrowing, the mind is adrift, a leaf blown by the winds, susceptible any and all forms of fancy and full, ruled by passions uninformed by principle.

I’d be interested in how you advise entertaining “it might be true” in a way that you can conclude “it’s not true” at the end of that process. What would the world have to look like to say “it might be true, but it looks quite likely it actually isn’t”?

-TS
 
Wanstronian

*I don’t really think you can reject a theory on the basis of a hypothesis. At least the former has some weight of evidence! *

Do you consider abiogenesis (the chance emergence of life) to be a theory or a hypothesis? If a theory, what evidence is there that it happened by chance? What statistical probability, if any, would you allow that it happened by chance? What would be your source for that statistical probability?
 
Touchstone

*So God hasn’t been eliminated as a possibility in my view. He may exist – it’s a possibility that can’t be ruled out. *

Then what if it is true that God exists and you have repudiated his invitation to love? Would you then have missed out on the most important experience of your life, or would that not be an important experience to miss out on?
 
I’d be interested in how you advise entertaining “it might be true” in a way that you can conclude “it’s not true” at the end of that process. What would the world have to look like to say “it might be true, but it looks quite likely it actually isn’t”?

-TS
As for me, I don’t just assume that what seems to be impossible isn’t possible.
  1. I first do research into exactly what the premise is, to see what others have said about it and to see what experts in that field have said about it.
  2. I compare the findings of my research to my own life experience and to others I know to be trustworthy sources to see whether or not the claims being made match my own experience and those of my other sources.
  3. I then test the assumption to see if it is valid.
  4. If valid, I accept the premise. If not valid, I discard as not true.
Earlier you posted in another thread that I should try Mormanism since I had great results with Catholicism. I’ve lived around Mormons my whole life, and I agree with them on issues such as emergency preparedness, etc. However, research into the history of the Morman faith and experience with those who are Mormon lead me to discard the premises of that particular religion as false.(this website has just one of many examples: bibletruths.org/cults/MormonismProphecy.html). The Mormon Church can provide no historical or architectural evidence at all to back up their claims of Christ coming over to America and teaching the native populations about the gospel. The Catholic Church has a plethora of both. The Mormon saints - Joseph Smith chief among them - were not icons of righteousness whose example I would hope to follow. The saints of the Catholic Church are well known and widely regarded as figures to be admired even by those who do not believe in God. Mother Theresa and Pope John Paul II, although not officially declared saints yet, are still figures who were widely admired for the work that they did to make the world a better place.
 
Touchstone

*So God hasn’t been eliminated as a possibility in my view. He may exist – it’s a possibility that can’t be ruled out. *

Then what if it is true that God exists and you have repudiated his invitation to love? Would you then have missed out on the most important experience of your life, or would that not be an important experience to miss out on?
Of course. True by definition.

-TS
 
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