F
fnr
Guest
I’m a health scientist, formally trained in epidemiology and biology. I’m also a Catholic, and think abortion is murder.
We live in a pluralistic society. In order to create a culture of life, we need to deal with diverse beliefs and be able to talk in words that don’t depend on our Catholic faith. In terms of public policy, this was recognized in Roe v. Wade (1973):
“*we do not agree that, by adopting one theory of life, Texas may override the rights of the pregnant woman that are at stake. *”
Given that, the pro-life movement needs objective science.
Based on numerous conversations I’ve had with the pro-life movement, and a review of “summaries” on web sites like National Right to Life’s, the movement does not seem rely on systematic research to move its position forward. Instead, it highlights discrepant papers in an attempt to establish a biological basis for state interest in restricting abortion. While the strategy has had success in state legislative chambers, it has failed to pass the bar of Federal judicial review. Most recently, the Ninth Circuit Federal court blocked the Arizona law based on “fetal pain” claims that stretch beyond the current state of neurodevelopmental science.
In contrast, advocates against restricting abortion publish frequently in scientific journals (e.g., the Guttmacher Institute’s publication record).
The result is that in scholarly law articles, the scientific claims of advocates outside the pro-life movement are dominant. To cite a recent such law article by an official working in a U.S. Federal Court:
“The empirical evidence, besides offering a way out of the fetal life dilemma, powerfully undercuts the current rhetorical approach of the pro-life movement— abortion harms women—instead showing that abortion has benefited women and helped equalize their role in society.
…]
Second, the empirical evidence shows that, on balance, abortion has given women an equal chance at the full and unfettered participation in all facets of life.
…]
All of these examples empirically support the argument that abortion bans (or substantial early-pregnancy regulation) run afoul of the underlying principles of the Fourteenth Amendment: ‘prohibiting caste legislation, subordinating legislation, and arbitrary and unjust discrimination.’”
It’s not just advocates against restricting abortion making these critiques of pro-life science. The following text was in a report linked on the NRTL web page by Priscilla Coleman of Bowling Green State U.:
“Innovative approaches that actively rely on long established scientific methods and make use of published data offer considerable hope for bringing more cohesion to a complex literature that for many years was fraught with conflicting results and polarized interpretations. The success of such an effort will ultimately require a commitment on the part of scientists, leaders of academic and professional organizations, and journal editors to set aside their personal ideological commitments, look honestly at all the published data, and work in concert on behalf of the millions of women who consider abortion and have the right to information that will facilitate appropriate decision-making.”
This 2011 call for pro-life researchers to adopt standard methods for systematic data analysis suggests to me that the movement is way behind the curve. I note that the author of the article I cite has recently been criticized for study methodology in her work on mental health impacts of abortion (to which she has published corrections), which appears to be an ongoing debate.
Here are a few examples of empirical claims I’ve heard from people in the pro-life movement, and my evaluation of those statements with available data.
“The U.S. has the greatest number (or rate) of abortions worldwide.” That may have been true once, but populations have shifted globally and in the U.S., rates have been dropping faster than other places. In a paper by Sedgh et al. (2012), there were 1.4 million abortions reported in “Northern America,” and 27.3 million in Asia (I’d thank the one child policy in China for that, plus a large population) and 6.4 million in Africa. The paper provides estimates that in “Northern America”, 19% of pregnancies end in abortion, while the statistics are 22% for Asia, 25% in Latin America, and 30% for Europe (driven by Eastern Europe).
“Unborn babies feel pain beginning from the seventh week of gestation.” I came across two recent review articles on the topic. The first, already cited, by two Italian researchers, concludes that, “Most studies disclose the possibility of fetal pain in the third trimester of gestation. This evidence becomes weaker before this date, though we cannot exclude its increasing presence since the beginning of the second half of the gestation.” Another review article, from 2005, concludes, “*Evidence regarding the capacity for fetal pain is limited but indicates that fetal perception of pain is unlikely before the third trimester. *”
“There are serious complications of induced abortion.” There’s a book cited in the pro-life movement as a scientific proof that abortion harms women. It’s called Aborted Women, Silent No More by David C. Reardon. The book is based largely on women who received their abortions from 1974-1978 and who underwent a religious conversion within the following 10 years and joined WEBA, a Christian anti-abortion group. The survey reported a post-surgical hemorrhage rate of 15% - in 2010 surveillance data I’ve reviewed from Michigan Dept of Community Health, the rate was under 0.01 percent. That suggests to me that the WEBA members were either “worst case” in their post-abortion outcomes or that abortion practices have become safer over time. In any case, the Michigan data also strongly suggest that the rate of immediate and long-term complication of induced abortion is generally lower than the rate of complication from vaginal live birth, the adverse effects of which include incontinence, infection, and post-partum depression. In general, abortion is no more dangerous that other surgical procedures.
“Eliminating partial-birth abortion will save many lives.” In fact, according to the statistics report on abortion surveillance by the National Center for Health Statistics, every year between 1999 and 2008, 95% of abortions took place at gestational age of 17 weeks or less. 90% took place at gestational age 13 weeks or less. As of 2002, >50% took place below gestational age 8 weeks.
I’m writing this because I believe that if the pro-life movement ever wants to pass muster constitutionally, it must go much farther in showing that the unborn merit the protection of the state against the wishes of a mother wishing to abort her pregnancy. This requires top-notch science.
In the mean time, changing culture is a much more fruitful endeavor, in my eyes, one that does not involve the divisiveness of partisan politics. In my eyes, partisan politics prevent us from realizing the Kingdom of God. However, abortion statistics give us clues as to how we might most effectively reduce abortion while building the Kingdom.
First, nationally, it’s clear that abortion is a culturally driven phenomenon. State level abortion statistics vary widely across the country, with abortion ratios per 1000 live births ranging from <100 in Kentucky, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming to >300 in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New York (over 700 in New York City, the national hotspot).
Secondly, it’s not at all clear that the legal status of abortion affects its rate. In the paper by Sedgh et al., cited above, globally, regions with the most stringent anti-abortion laws, on average, had higher rates of abortion, generally of the illegal variety. For example, the abortion rate remains high in many Latin American countries, despite having national bans in most places (this motivated the Mexican government to loosen its restrictions on abortion). This suggests that legal change, without cultural change, may not have that great an effect on abortion rates. We already have evidence in the U.S. that people skirt state restrictions by traveling to other states.
Third, abortion rates vary substantially by race/age. Black women’s abortion rates are much higher than white women’s. ~50% of abortions take place among women under 25 years old. The odds of getting an abortion are highest (in order) among ages <15, 15-19, 20-24, and 40 and over. This suggests there are two types of women getting abortions: first, women who are economically vulnerable, largely due to their place in life (and possibly their prospects for stable partners); secondly, women over 40 may be receiving abortion at high rates due to concerns about Downs syndrome or other conditions.
These factors spell out to me an alternative pro-life pathway I hope succeeds: getting involved in the lives of young people at an early age.
We live in a pluralistic society. In order to create a culture of life, we need to deal with diverse beliefs and be able to talk in words that don’t depend on our Catholic faith. In terms of public policy, this was recognized in Roe v. Wade (1973):
“*we do not agree that, by adopting one theory of life, Texas may override the rights of the pregnant woman that are at stake. *”
Given that, the pro-life movement needs objective science.
Based on numerous conversations I’ve had with the pro-life movement, and a review of “summaries” on web sites like National Right to Life’s, the movement does not seem rely on systematic research to move its position forward. Instead, it highlights discrepant papers in an attempt to establish a biological basis for state interest in restricting abortion. While the strategy has had success in state legislative chambers, it has failed to pass the bar of Federal judicial review. Most recently, the Ninth Circuit Federal court blocked the Arizona law based on “fetal pain” claims that stretch beyond the current state of neurodevelopmental science.
In contrast, advocates against restricting abortion publish frequently in scientific journals (e.g., the Guttmacher Institute’s publication record).
The result is that in scholarly law articles, the scientific claims of advocates outside the pro-life movement are dominant. To cite a recent such law article by an official working in a U.S. Federal Court:
“The empirical evidence, besides offering a way out of the fetal life dilemma, powerfully undercuts the current rhetorical approach of the pro-life movement— abortion harms women—instead showing that abortion has benefited women and helped equalize their role in society.
…]
Second, the empirical evidence shows that, on balance, abortion has given women an equal chance at the full and unfettered participation in all facets of life.
…]
All of these examples empirically support the argument that abortion bans (or substantial early-pregnancy regulation) run afoul of the underlying principles of the Fourteenth Amendment: ‘prohibiting caste legislation, subordinating legislation, and arbitrary and unjust discrimination.’”
It’s not just advocates against restricting abortion making these critiques of pro-life science. The following text was in a report linked on the NRTL web page by Priscilla Coleman of Bowling Green State U.:
“Innovative approaches that actively rely on long established scientific methods and make use of published data offer considerable hope for bringing more cohesion to a complex literature that for many years was fraught with conflicting results and polarized interpretations. The success of such an effort will ultimately require a commitment on the part of scientists, leaders of academic and professional organizations, and journal editors to set aside their personal ideological commitments, look honestly at all the published data, and work in concert on behalf of the millions of women who consider abortion and have the right to information that will facilitate appropriate decision-making.”
This 2011 call for pro-life researchers to adopt standard methods for systematic data analysis suggests to me that the movement is way behind the curve. I note that the author of the article I cite has recently been criticized for study methodology in her work on mental health impacts of abortion (to which she has published corrections), which appears to be an ongoing debate.
Here are a few examples of empirical claims I’ve heard from people in the pro-life movement, and my evaluation of those statements with available data.
“The U.S. has the greatest number (or rate) of abortions worldwide.” That may have been true once, but populations have shifted globally and in the U.S., rates have been dropping faster than other places. In a paper by Sedgh et al. (2012), there were 1.4 million abortions reported in “Northern America,” and 27.3 million in Asia (I’d thank the one child policy in China for that, plus a large population) and 6.4 million in Africa. The paper provides estimates that in “Northern America”, 19% of pregnancies end in abortion, while the statistics are 22% for Asia, 25% in Latin America, and 30% for Europe (driven by Eastern Europe).
“Unborn babies feel pain beginning from the seventh week of gestation.” I came across two recent review articles on the topic. The first, already cited, by two Italian researchers, concludes that, “Most studies disclose the possibility of fetal pain in the third trimester of gestation. This evidence becomes weaker before this date, though we cannot exclude its increasing presence since the beginning of the second half of the gestation.” Another review article, from 2005, concludes, “*Evidence regarding the capacity for fetal pain is limited but indicates that fetal perception of pain is unlikely before the third trimester. *”
“There are serious complications of induced abortion.” There’s a book cited in the pro-life movement as a scientific proof that abortion harms women. It’s called Aborted Women, Silent No More by David C. Reardon. The book is based largely on women who received their abortions from 1974-1978 and who underwent a religious conversion within the following 10 years and joined WEBA, a Christian anti-abortion group. The survey reported a post-surgical hemorrhage rate of 15% - in 2010 surveillance data I’ve reviewed from Michigan Dept of Community Health, the rate was under 0.01 percent. That suggests to me that the WEBA members were either “worst case” in their post-abortion outcomes or that abortion practices have become safer over time. In any case, the Michigan data also strongly suggest that the rate of immediate and long-term complication of induced abortion is generally lower than the rate of complication from vaginal live birth, the adverse effects of which include incontinence, infection, and post-partum depression. In general, abortion is no more dangerous that other surgical procedures.
“Eliminating partial-birth abortion will save many lives.” In fact, according to the statistics report on abortion surveillance by the National Center for Health Statistics, every year between 1999 and 2008, 95% of abortions took place at gestational age of 17 weeks or less. 90% took place at gestational age 13 weeks or less. As of 2002, >50% took place below gestational age 8 weeks.
I’m writing this because I believe that if the pro-life movement ever wants to pass muster constitutionally, it must go much farther in showing that the unborn merit the protection of the state against the wishes of a mother wishing to abort her pregnancy. This requires top-notch science.
In the mean time, changing culture is a much more fruitful endeavor, in my eyes, one that does not involve the divisiveness of partisan politics. In my eyes, partisan politics prevent us from realizing the Kingdom of God. However, abortion statistics give us clues as to how we might most effectively reduce abortion while building the Kingdom.
First, nationally, it’s clear that abortion is a culturally driven phenomenon. State level abortion statistics vary widely across the country, with abortion ratios per 1000 live births ranging from <100 in Kentucky, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming to >300 in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New York (over 700 in New York City, the national hotspot).
Secondly, it’s not at all clear that the legal status of abortion affects its rate. In the paper by Sedgh et al., cited above, globally, regions with the most stringent anti-abortion laws, on average, had higher rates of abortion, generally of the illegal variety. For example, the abortion rate remains high in many Latin American countries, despite having national bans in most places (this motivated the Mexican government to loosen its restrictions on abortion). This suggests that legal change, without cultural change, may not have that great an effect on abortion rates. We already have evidence in the U.S. that people skirt state restrictions by traveling to other states.
Third, abortion rates vary substantially by race/age. Black women’s abortion rates are much higher than white women’s. ~50% of abortions take place among women under 25 years old. The odds of getting an abortion are highest (in order) among ages <15, 15-19, 20-24, and 40 and over. This suggests there are two types of women getting abortions: first, women who are economically vulnerable, largely due to their place in life (and possibly their prospects for stable partners); secondly, women over 40 may be receiving abortion at high rates due to concerns about Downs syndrome or other conditions.
These factors spell out to me an alternative pro-life pathway I hope succeeds: getting involved in the lives of young people at an early age.
