Sweden Hits COVID-19 "Triple Whammy": No Lockdowns, Low Deaths & Minimal Economic Damage

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So now we know: Sweden got it largely right, and the British establishment catastrophically wrong. Anders Tegnell, Stockholm’s epidemiologist-king, has pulled off a remarkable triple whammy: far fewer deaths per capita than Britain, a maintenance of basic freedoms and opportunities, including schooling, and, most strikingly, a recession less than half as severe as our own.

But if a drop in GDP is unavoidable, governments can influence its size and scale. Politicians can react in one of three ways to a pandemic. They can do nothing, and allow the disease to rip until herd immunity is reached. Quite rightly, no government has pursued this policy, out of fear of mass deaths and total social and economic collapse.

The second approach involves imposing proportionate restrictions to facilitate social distancing, banning certain sorts of gatherings while encouraging and informing the public. The Swedes pursued a version of this centrist strategy: there was a fair bit of compulsion, but also a focus on retaining normal life and keeping schools open. The virus was taken very seriously, but there was no formal lockdown. Tegnell is one of the few genuine heroes of this crisis: he identified the correct trade-offs.

The third option is the full-on statist approach, which imposes a legally binding lockdown and shuts down society. Such a blunderbuss approach may be right under certain circumstances – if a vaccine is imminent – or for some viruses – for example, if we are ever hit with one that targets children and comes with a much higher fatality rate – but the latest economic and mortality statistics suggest this wasn’t so for Covid-19…
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So were Sweden and Japan, the two that got it right by not killing their economies and the low death rates.

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Here is Japan

www.nippon.com

Coronavirus Cases in Japan by Prefecture

Updates on Japan’s COVID-19 cases, fatalities, and recoveries.
www.nippon.com www.nippon.com

" Cases in Japan: 51,147 Infections, 1,063 Deaths (as of 12:00 on August 13, 2020)"

Cases are up in Japan but deaths are low.
 
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UK has a terrible rate. Anyone would look good compared to them. Compare Sweden to their peers (Denmark, Finland, Germany, Norway) and Sweden looks
awful. . . .
 
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27lw said:
UK has a terrible rate. Anyone would look good compared to them. Compare Sweden to their peers (Denmark, Finland, Germany) and Sweden looks awful.
Your opening post is laughably bad.
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Sweden did not cover its nursing homes initially and that is why they have 5000 deaths but still that is relatively low. The Nordic countries did well. One has to wonder about what Japan is doing to get such results.
 
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down side:
They beat us on deaths/100K POP
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And on the Case-Fatality side they are at 12th and we are at 56th.

and it looks like the confirmed cases are on the up tick
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Sweden has a population half the size of New York. New York has over 32,000 deaths and Sweden which did very little in lockdown has 5, 783 total according to John Hopkins.

Sweden population is 10.23 million. Both New York and Sweden failed when it came to nursing homes but still not bad for Sweden who did essentially little to lockdown. Schools were kept open.

Japan seems to be showing similar results, low death with little lockdown and no injury to their economy.
 
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Was there also very little mask wearing and social distancing on the part of Sweden and Japan? And, with regard to comparison to New York, what is the density of the population in Sweden?
 
meltzerboy2 said:
Was there also very little mask wearing and social distancing on the part of Sweden and Japan? And, with regard to comparison to New York, what is the density of the population in Sweden?
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I’d also add, did their universal healthcare have a factor? How available was that care to everyone compared to the US?
 
meltzerboy2 said:
Was there also very little mask wearing and social distancing on the part of Sweden and Japan
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Sweden had little mask wearing from pictures I have seen. Japan is opposite as they seem to be a very mask conscious. Sweden did adhere to social distancing.

I am not sure universal healthcare is a factor as both had healthcare and there is no cure.

Population density would be a factor in Sweden and New York as New York City produced the most deaths. There is no clear pictures on deaths, what cities had the highest death rates in Sweden. Look at Japan. Tokyo has bigger population than NYC but still a very low death rates.

Population of Tokyo is 9.273 million
 
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The lower death rate in Tokyo may be the result of compliance regarding mask wearing, particularly indoors. In the case of Sweden, lower density may, in part, be a reason for lower mortality rates.
 
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meltzerboy2 said:
The low death rate in Tokyo may be the result of compliance regarding mask wearing, particularly indoors.
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Many of the countries were in total lockdown initially and for 8 to 10 weeks so mask wearing for those countries would not matter. Mask wearing would be a factor later. Unity of Japan may be a factor when citizens in nations strive for a certain end result. Same with Sweden.

Still in Tokyo they ride public transit, the are squished in like sardines each morning and night.Just amazing that the did not have massive outbreaks. Are they being honest, I have no idea. Too early to tell but something to look at.
 
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27lw said:
UK has a terrible rate. Anyone would look good compared to them. Compare Sweden to their peers (Denmark, Finland, Germany, Norway) and Sweden looks awful.
Your opening post is laughably bad.
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The present numbers are not the end of the race. Sweden is doing very well if the virus stays active for the next 1-2 years, when herd immunity will actually matter.

Their deaths per mil pop is below Spain, UK, Italy, and only slightly worse than France. This is in spite of having the highest rate of infection (herd immunity) of all those countries.

This is the race between the tortoise and rabbit. And how the economy fares over the race is a key factor.

91-divoc.com

An interactive visualization of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC

An interactive, data-forward visualization of COVID-19 data by Prof. Wade at The University of Illinois. Updated daily.
91-divoc.com 91-divoc.com
 
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I don’t see how one can declare Sweden’s strategy a success. A higher proportion of their people have already died of covid-19 than all major nations besides Spain, Italy, Peru, and the UK, according to the latest data, with 56.72 per 100K dead. By comparison, their neighbor, Norway had 4.84 (less than 10% the rate for Sweden). Finland had 6.03 (also about 10% of Sweden). Even the US, with all of it’s missteps and confused leadership, had slightly better results at only 51.08. Yes, Sweden’s economy may be doing somewhat better, but they achieved that worldly success at the cost of the the lives of 5000 of their citizens. And what did they gain by sacrificing all those lives? Well, the EU economy overall contracted 11.9%, but the Swedish economy only contracted 8.6%. So they gained a 3% boost in their economy. Was it worth it?
 
LeafByNiggle said:
I don’t see how one can declare Sweden’s strategy a success. A higher proportion of their people have already died of covid-19 than all major nations besides Spain, Italy, Peru, and the UK, according to the latest data, with 56.72 per 100K dead.
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Sweden is ranked 8 in deaths/mil population, behind San Marino, Belgium, Peru, Andorra, Spain, UK, Italy. Their rate is fairly close to Chile, and USA,

It will be another year before we can definitively look at the health and economic impacts. Hopefully the quality of the health data will be properly cleaned up by then, it’s not reliable for many countries at this time.
 
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