Syria Next?

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Sitting in a hotel lobby in Sofia, Bulgaria Dr. Khaled Hakki sips slowly his coffee.

“Elections in Syria are Next” he vows with the confidence of a Kurdish doctor who speaks fluently seven languages.

The reaction to the Iraq vote amongst Syrians has been something of a phantasmagorical dream. Gone are the skeptics who have claimed that the US entered Iraq for its oil to replace it with Syrian faces green with envy for a new and democratic Iraq whose population has suffered as much under Ba’athism as have the Syrians. The smug on their faces are gone. Now, they believe.

“Don’t you find it strange that Iraqis vote in Syria and Syrians cannot vote in their own country?” fused Dr. Mohammed al-Ghaida, the son of the leader of one of the largest tribe in northern Syria that boasts close to 150,000 members of which close to 10,000 have already joined the Reform Party of Syria. Smoking continuously, he adds: “It is just a question of time before we take control of our destiny and for all Syrians to return to Syria to choose a new leadership capable of bringing Syria into the 21st century”. Amen Dr. Al-Ghaida.

These conversations took place exactly a week before the elections but if the news coming out of Iraq today is true, Iraqis have in one day silenced the critics who claimed that Arabs cannot handle or better yet do not want democracy, have sent a very clear and loud message to all the other oppressive regimes in the region that autocracy is crumbling, and have, with ink on their finger, challenged the wisdom of most American policy makers who, through years of badly constructed policies, kept the Iraqis chained to their rulers. Conventional wisdom in Iraq says that Kissinger is out and Wolfowitz is in.

In the aftermath of this elated and historical day, it is hard to imagine Syria standing still or better yet the world standing still in the face of Syrian despotism. No matter what happens next, Syria is about to change dramatically and not because Assad wants to but because Iraq is forcing the ripples of democracy and the Ba’athists in Damascus can do nothing but stare in disbelief. If Assad has any iota of wisdom or self preservation he would announce tomorrow that Syria is changing its constitution to allow other parties to participate in the political process, freeing all prisoners of conscience such as Riad Seif and Aref Dalilah, and capitulating to a new Syria where the best and the brightest can govern with total transparency and accountability to the Syrian people.

But then self preservation is the last thing Assad can handle at the moment because although democratic Iraq is breathing down his neck, he cannot see it the way he did not see the effects of 9/11 on the United States. nationalreview.com/thecorner/05_01_30_corner-archive.asp#054679
 
This is only the begining. In the next 10 to 15 years I think we have a good chance of seeing a truely democratic middle east.
 
BAGHDAD – Iraqis embraced democracy in large numbers Sunday, standing in long lines to vote in defiance of mortar attacks, suicide bombers and boycott calls. Pushed in wheelchairs or carts if they couldn’t walk, the elderly, the young and women in veils cast ballots in Iraq’s first free election in a half-century.

“We broke a barrier of fear,” said Mijm Towirish, an election official.

Uncertain Sunni turnout, a string of insurgent attacks that killed 44 and the crash of a British military plane drove home that chaos in Iraq isn’t over yet.

Yet the mere fact the vote went off seemed to ricochet instantly around a world hoping for Arab democracy and fearing Islamic extremism.

“I am doing this because I love my country, and I love the sons of my nation,” said Shamal Hekeib, 53, who walked with his wife 20 minutes to a polling station near his Baghdad home. “We are Arabs, we are not scared and we are not cowards,” Hekeib said.

(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com
 
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Lance:
This is only the begining. In the next 10 to 15 years I think we have a good chance of seeing a truely democratic middle east.
I am terrible at remembering names, but a Middle East expert was on O’Reilly tonight and said the same thing. 👍
 
When I read the title of this thread, I guessed that it meant “is Syria next for a U.S. invasion?” But then I saw that gilliam had posted it and that doesn’t seem like something he’d ask.

It does raise the question though, do you think that Syrian elections will happen without being preceded by a military conflict? If not, will that military conflict involve the United States?

I’m just asking what people think.
 
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atsheeran:
do you think that Syrian elections will happen without being preceded by a military conflict?
Yes. The Syrians themselves will demand it.
 
I hope Gilliam is right. We must remember that Assad is as ruthless, maybe even more so, as Sadam was. I think it was in the 80’s when there was an uprising against him and his family, most of the rebel leaders came from a village named Hamma. After he put down the insurrection, he destroyed the whole village as revenge. I remember people in the middle east talking about Hamma rules, which state that if you mess with Assad he will not only kill you, he will kill your family and friends and destroy your property and theirs too. We may have to support the Syrians who want freedom with military action or threat of it. I think Assad might see that we are not kidding when we say something under Bush, unlike under Clinton where we would spend years and years negotiating and nothing ever changing. He may take an offer to allow him to leave and keep his life and fortune. I pray that he will do so.
 
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Lance:
I hope Gilliam is right. We must remember that Assad is as ruthless, maybe even more so, as Sadam was. I think it was in the 80’s when there was an uprising against him and his family, most of the rebel leaders came from a village named Hamma. After he put down the insurrection, he destroyed the whole village as revenge. .
Wasn’t that his dad?
 
It would be beautiful but It´s difficult but a democracy without war would be difficult, in addition, the democracy is good but it isn´t the final, in Turkey there are a democracy and the goverments put in prison to catholic priests that baptise a boy, it pressures for not selling houses to american protestant misioneries, in Indonesia it isn´t allowed changing the religion legally, namely, if you have converted to protestantism from islam, you will be in a muslim cemetery, for example, and for example in Morocco, sad and hard country, journalists are imprisoned for making jokes in magazines about the monarchy,
 
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FightingFat:
Is the only way we can achieve that goal by invading?
I didn’t read anything about invading. The Syrians will demand this from their government.
 
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FightingFat:
Cool.

(Pssst…I was trying to make a subtle, jokey point)
I didn’t catch that. However, another poster thought about invasion at first glance too and I am sure some will avoid the thread because they will assume it also.
 
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