I have some comments and a suggestion.
Comments: I have a link.
pewresearch.org/2007/05/22/muslim-americans-middle-class-and-mostly-mainstream/ It gives some stats on Muslim Americans. 65% are foreign-born, and 35% are native-born in America. Those numbers (like all numbers of this nature) are steadily converging, and considering how this data comes from 2011, it may be closer to 50-50 by now, although not quite there yet. Perhaps 60-40? At any rate, 2011 numbers indicate a 65-35 split at that point in time.
The 65% figure is presumed to represent people who were raised Muslim in its entirety. Out of the 35 percentage points representing native-born people, 21 of those percentage points are converts to Islam and 14 of those percentage points are born Muslim (and then presumably given no other choice as to what religion they’ll practice the rest of their lives).
Just to clarify, 35% of all Muslims in the United States are native born, and then we use number that add up to 35- meaning 21% of all Muslims in the US are converts, and 14% of all Muslims in the US are native born Muslims.
Now, that is a pretty favorable composition of numbers, the internal percentage of converts is higher than the internal percentage of native-born Muslims and that is just what Muslims are looking to achieve and sustain. It will be a bit difficult to sustain over time as the overall ratio of foreign-born to native-born converges and then reverses, but the current situation is quite favorable to Islam.
I do have a couple of comments to add, though. One- native born Muslims are increasingly likely to feel like they have a choice in their religion the more generations that separate them from their foreign-born ancestors. The total number of people who’ve left Islam is very comparable to the number of converts currently practicing Islam, and with the passage of time, American Muslims will have to work harder to keep their native-born Muslims and it’s just not going to work. On the other hand, most if not all other religions that immigrants take with them to America immediately have near-catastrophic loss of adherents in the next couple of generations. Islam is well positioned to prevent that loss very effectively in the near term (even if it is done viciously) and it will manage it comparatively well in the medium and long term. But let’s not kid ourselves, the conversion numbers are pretty well even as is and that is going to start going much more in favor of the most evangelism-oriented parts of American Christianity before too long.
I have one other thing to add about these conversion numbers, too. If you talk to Muslims about how many American Muslims are converts, most of them will not tell you a figure like 21%. Most of them will estimate something more like 30%, or perhaps 1 in every 3 as a ballpark figure. There is a very good reason for that- there really are quite a lot of people converting to Islam, especially black Americans as the first link will indicate. Conversion to Islam is generally most likely to happen in prison, actually. The thing is, a lot of those converts wind up not being Muslim for very long, and even fewer of those converts wind up raising children who are Muslim. Also, as you might expect in a situation where Islam is a small minority religion, a large proportion of Muslims marry someone who is not a Muslim- not exactly encouraged by the religion, but in this type of situation what are you going to do, right? It’s more likely to happen, and of course Islam requires that the non-Muslim become a Muslim in order to get married. (Some of this may sound like a familiar situation to Catholics in the US). As you might expect, both the high proportions of prison conversions and the marriage-related conversions lead to a low rate of permanent conversions and multi-generational impact. It is for these reasons- mainly- that American conversions to Islam happen at a rate that may seem like 1 in every 3 American Muslims is a convert, but in fact the figure looks a lot more like 21% on account of so many of these converts not sticking around long term. (Again, this is the exact situation with Catholics as you look at Protestants. But that is a topic for a different thread).
Here is a link where an imam talks about the people who convert and then leave.
masjidibrahimislamiccenter.org/2010/01/13/seven-out-of-every-ten-converts-leave-islam-by-imam-luqman-ahmad/
These are my comments. Now I have a suggestion. There is a long-running program on EWTN where Protestant converts to Catholicism tell their story, answer some questions from someone on a whole staff of Tiber swimmers, and everyone on the program encourages Catholics to invite Protestants to switch teams. Any Protestants that happen to be listening are encouraged to become Catholic. Now, what if EWTN had a program in which ex-Muslims tell their stories about becoming Catholic? Perhaps the staff could look into hiring an ex-Muslim as a radio personality who talks about Muslim-Catholic issues on a regular basis, and plays the role of the person who helps guide other converts through the process of telling their story.
There aren’t all that many Muslim converts to Catholicism, but then there aren’t that many Tiber swimmers either and their stories are featured very regularly, at least once a week. What do you think would happen if Catholic radio featured the same types of stories from people who used to be Muslim? Would the overall effect be positive? If a Catholic radio station is able to carry this out with Tiber swimmers and approach it with motives and intentions that are completely pure and good, is there any reason why they wouldn’t be able to do the exact same thing with ex-Muslims?
Also, is there any particular reason why ex-Muslims are not currently telling their conversion stories on Catholic radio?