It seems as though too many people have learned their economics from the Sierra Club and Paul Ehrlich.
The reality is that three things take place when a resource becomes “depleted”
- Conservation takes place
- People get better at extracting the resource from nature
- Substitutes are found
So to address your oil shortage red herring - the above three things will take place in a market economy. The substitute for oil that the market determines to be best is likely to be coal liquification (but nobody knows for sure). The planet has a much larger supply of coal than oil and the technology is already there (the Nazi’s used it in WWII when they had limited oil access).
The market has used these mechanisms successfully throughout history. Doomesday sayers like yourself said about 450 years ago that there would be no trees left soon because they were being used up heating homes and building boats. Soon after that metal boats were invented and coal was used for heating.
You can always use a simplistic analysis to say that the world will be without some critical resource in the near future. This analysis always becomes bunk if the 3 mechanisms mentioned above are not considered. They have, after all, been saying that we have 20 years of oil left for 100 years now…