Giant response here is intended for Jon, the rest of you can feel free to skip it!
Jon, happy to discuss this with you. I’m going off my own readings of Lutheran writings. Feel free to correct me where you see fit.
I feel TULIP is arranged such that each point is built on the foundation created by the preceding ones, so even though you already agreed that Lutherans affirm Total Depravity, I’ll start there to build my case.
Total Depravity
Augsburg Confession Article II says:
“since the fall of Adam all men begotten in the natural way are born with sin, that is, without the fear of God, without trust in God, and with concupiscence; and that this disease, or vice of origin, is truly sin, even now condemning and bringing eternal death upon those not born again through Baptism and the Holy Ghost.”
So here’s original sin defined as “without the fear of God etc” i.e. fallen man lacks even the capacity for faith.
To clarify the point, Melanchthon’s Apology of the Augsburg Confession on Article II declares:
“These were the reasons why, in the description of original sin, we made mention of concupiscence also, and denied to man’s natural strength the fear of God and trust in Him. For we wished to indicate that original sin contains also these diseases, namely, ignorance of God, contempt for God, the being destitute of the fear of God and trust in Him, inability to love God. These are the chief faults of human nature, conflicting especially with the first table of the Decalogue.”
and:
“For human nature has been delivered into slavery and is held captive by the devil, who infatuates it with wicked opinions and errors, and impels it to sins of every kind. But just as the devil cannot be conquered except by the aid of Christ, so by our own strength we cannot free ourselves from this slavery.”
Again, Man’s complete and utter inability to have faith or even desire for God unassisted by Divine grace.
Finally, demonstrating that even the “stuff” of Christianity without the independent action of the Holy Spirit is useless we have this from the Large Catechism:
“For where He does not cause it to be preached and made alive in the heart, so that it is understood, it is lost, as was the case under the Papacy, where faith was entirely put under the bench, and no one recognized Christ as his Lord or the Holy Ghost as his Sanctifier, that is, no one believed that Christ is our Lord in the sense that He has acquired this treasure for us, without our works and merit, and made us acceptable to the Father. What, then, was lacking? This, that the Holy Ghost was not there to reveal it and cause it to be preached; but men and evil spirits were there, who taught us to obtain grace and be saved by our works.”
Unconditional Election
Article IV of the Augsburg Confession declares:
“Also they teach that men cannot be justified before God by their own strength, merits, or works, but are freely justified for Christ’s sake, through faith, when they believe that they are received into favor, and that their sins are forgiven for Christ’s sake, who, by His death, has made satisfaction for our sins.”
I read this as building on what was said about Original Sin, in that Man can do nothing to move himself toward salvation, but can only depend on being “freely” (i.e. God’s own action and only at His own discretion) justified.
From the Apology:
“Since, therefore, contempt of God, and doubt concerning the Word of God, and concerning the threats and promises, inhere in human nature, men truly sin, even when, without the Holy Ghost, they do virtuous works, because they do them with a wicked heart, according to Rom. 14:23: Whatsoever is not of faith is sin. For such persons perform their works with contempt of God, just as Epicurus does not believe that God cares for him, or that he is regarded or heard by God. This contempt vitiates works seemingly virtuous, because God judges the heart.”
At first glance this is a repeat of the declarations confirming Total Depravity, which is necessary because Unconditional Election is the logical conclusion. The point is made plain when Melanchthon goes on to say:
“Because, therefore, men by their own strength cannot fulfil the Law of God, and all are under sin, and subject to eternal wrath and death, on this account we cannot be freed by the Law from sin and be justified, but the promise of the remission of sins and of justification has been given us for Christ’s sake, who was given for us in order that He might make satisfaction for the sins of the world, and has been appointed as the [only] Mediator and Propitiator. And this promise has not the condition of our merits [it does not read thus: Through Christ you have grace, salvation etc., if you merit it], but freely offers the remission of sins and justification as Paul says Rom. 11:6: If it be of works, then is it no more grace.”
Note that he himself declares the promise “has not the condition of our merits” (i.e. is unconditional).