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JMJ_Pinoy
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**Christmas Cheer
***'Tis the season for good economic news.
*by Irwin M. Stelzer
12/07/2004
THERE IS LITTLE in the spate of economic statistics that was published this week to upset economy-watchers here in America. The economy is growing at an annual rate of 4 percent. The Institute of Supply Management reports that both the manufacturing and service sectors are expanding at an increasing rate. Share prices are showing strength, and the housing market remains buoyant.
Incomes are rising. Even usually glum farmers are finding reason to cheer: their incomes are up 25 percent on last year’s levels. Oil prices are falling as high inventories and warm weather relieve supply worries, and as Iraq slowly but surely returns to world markets in a major way.
True, the job report for November disappointed, with the new jobs created coming in at 112,000, rather than the expected 200,000. But the economy has created over two million jobs in the past year, and the unemployment rate is a satisfactory 5.4 percent. The hiring of college graduates is up 20 percent over last year and the grads’ pay offers are between 4 percent and 7 percent higher than last year according to the Collegiate Employment Research Institute.
It is now all-but-certain that by the time George W. Bush takes the oath of office late in January he will no longer have to contemplate going down in history as the first president since Herbert Hoover to witness a loss of jobs during a complete term in office. Instead, Bush will be able to claim that his tax cuts enabled the American economy to avoid a recession despite the fact that he inherited a declining economy from Bill Clinton, and then had to cope with the economic consequences of the trauma of September 11.
Add to this the so-far benign effect of the falling dollar. Exporters are starting to report increased sales as their goods become cheaper in overseas markets, and their foreign competitors’ products become dearer here in America. There is some worry that the falling dollar might induce Asian and other holders of large amounts of dollars and dollar-denominate assets to begin dumping their holdings, which would drive up U.S. interest rates and slow the economy, but the administration is confident that such actions would hurt the holders of dollars too much for them to adopt such a policy.
***'Tis the season for good economic news.
*by Irwin M. Stelzer
12/07/2004
THERE IS LITTLE in the spate of economic statistics that was published this week to upset economy-watchers here in America. The economy is growing at an annual rate of 4 percent. The Institute of Supply Management reports that both the manufacturing and service sectors are expanding at an increasing rate. Share prices are showing strength, and the housing market remains buoyant.
Incomes are rising. Even usually glum farmers are finding reason to cheer: their incomes are up 25 percent on last year’s levels. Oil prices are falling as high inventories and warm weather relieve supply worries, and as Iraq slowly but surely returns to world markets in a major way.
True, the job report for November disappointed, with the new jobs created coming in at 112,000, rather than the expected 200,000. But the economy has created over two million jobs in the past year, and the unemployment rate is a satisfactory 5.4 percent. The hiring of college graduates is up 20 percent over last year and the grads’ pay offers are between 4 percent and 7 percent higher than last year according to the Collegiate Employment Research Institute.
It is now all-but-certain that by the time George W. Bush takes the oath of office late in January he will no longer have to contemplate going down in history as the first president since Herbert Hoover to witness a loss of jobs during a complete term in office. Instead, Bush will be able to claim that his tax cuts enabled the American economy to avoid a recession despite the fact that he inherited a declining economy from Bill Clinton, and then had to cope with the economic consequences of the trauma of September 11.
Add to this the so-far benign effect of the falling dollar. Exporters are starting to report increased sales as their goods become cheaper in overseas markets, and their foreign competitors’ products become dearer here in America. There is some worry that the falling dollar might induce Asian and other holders of large amounts of dollars and dollar-denominate assets to begin dumping their holdings, which would drive up U.S. interest rates and slow the economy, but the administration is confident that such actions would hurt the holders of dollars too much for them to adopt such a policy.