U.S. Birth Rate Drops Below Replacement Level

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I’ll be attacked for saying this, but in my opinion this country is underpopulated. Very much so.

In my own little “micro economic zone” of about 50 miles by about 150 miles, there are a million people. Surrounding it on all sides are miles and miles and miles of country just like it where you hardly see any cows, let alone human beings, and it’s good land, with good highways, plentiful water. You name it. But no people. Anything shipped in or out of here has to go a long, long way to other population centers. The next nearest one is about 3 hours away, driving briskly and never stopping. Lack of population is one of the reasons transportation (and thus energy) usage in this country is so high. It takes a lot of hauling to get people and goods to all the places they need to go.
Acually, the problem you’re describing is a lack of population density, not a lack of population per se. In other words, it not that there aren’t enough people, it’s that we’re very spread out in many parts of the country.
 
I, for one, do not disagree. The problem, it seems, is not the available land, but what work might be available in those areas to support the families that might move there.
Yes, that is a huge issue. There’s nothing on the horizon that will provide enough jobs for our current working population, much less a growing workforce.
 
Actually, jobs are a huge issue right now. Again I ask, how are we going to employ a growing population, when we can’t even employ all of our current citizens? An increasing world population may create some jobs, but it will also create more workers, and with globalization, many of them will be competing directly with U.S. citizens. And technology raises productivity, reducing the need for workers.
An even bigger question is how is an ever-dwindling population going to be able to pay for the burgeoning social security and health care expenses that will be incurred by an ever aging population base.
 
By Patrick B. CraineWASHINGTON, D.C., April 7, 2010 (LifeSiteNews.com) - U.S. births dropped 2% in 2008, bringing the country’s birth rate below replacement level, new government statistics released Tuesday reveal.The U.S. National Vital Statistics Report showed that the U.S. birth rate dropped…

Full article…
That’s okay, immigration from Mexico will keep the population increasing! 🙂
 
An even bigger question is how is an ever-dwindling population going to be able to pay for the burgeoning social security and health care expenses that will be incurred by an ever aging population base.
A larger population doesn’t solve that problem - it’s a larger payroll that’s needed, under our present system of funding those benefits through employment-based taxes. Merely having more people doesn’t help; in fact it increases the future burden. What’s needed is more aggregate earnings. Just increasing the population merely depresses wages.
 
Yes, a larger payroll is needed, and a larger payroll means many more workers. With the aging of the baby boomers the U.S. will be facing a severe underpopulation crisis in the next few decades, and a severe shortage of workers. By the time the nation gets around to admitting and realizing the underpopulation crisis, it will already be too late to stop the decline, which will lead to a semi-permanent economic stagnation. Countries with growing populations will lead the next boom.
 
Yes, a larger payroll is needed, and a larger payroll means many more workers. With the aging of the baby boomers the U.S. will be facing a severe underpopulation crisis in the next few decades, and a severe shortage of workers. By the time the nation gets around to admitting and realizing the underpopulation crisis, it will already be too late to stop the decline, which will lead to a semi-permanent economic stagnation. Countries with growing populations will lead the next boom.
A larger payroll doesn’t necessarily mean more workers - it’s the product of workers and wages. Adding more workers without an increase in wages doesn’t change the total payroll - it just spreads the same amount of money among more people. True payroll growth requires more jobs - and where are those going to come from in the U.S.? We’re losing jobs; we don’t have enough for our current workforce. How can we support even more people without a serious decline in our standard of living, descending to a global average wage?
 
Jobs in America used to come from entrepreneurship, from the desire to grow one’s business and profit. As America becomes increasingly socialized, jobs will come from the government.
In which case, even more jobs and a larger payroll will end up being a drain.
And a smaller and smaller workforce paying a larger and larger proportion of their payroll and profits into taxes is a disinsentive to work.

It takes faith to have children for sure, to trust in life enough to bring forth children into an uncertain future. Suffice to say technology itself has not led to the drain in jobs that was once feared. Vast proportions of the American population has become employed in the new technology. Not only have there been more than enough jobs in such a highly technologized country, but there were plenty enough jobs for a large proportion of the Mexican workforce as well.

Europe likewise has needed to import workers that their own labor force and low birth rates have been failing to produce on their own. Even in such a densely populated area as Europe apparently, the idea that there were too many people for a technological workforce just has not panned out. European governments and business leaders had to import the workers to fill the jobs that their own indigenous population were too insecure to procreate on their own.

It really does take faith though to bring children into this world. The reasons ‘why not’ will always be there. the greater the freedom, the greater the uncertainty.

Above all it is a matter of trust in life itself.

The Church is there to teach us that life— with all its vagaries and uncertainties and suffering, in spite of all that suffering and uncertainty, maybe even because of the suffering and uncertainty— is nevertheless good. Where there are children, there is hope. Is there anything more quintessentially Christian than the icon of Madonna and Child?

I think that is what it all boils down to, whether we will trust in the Church and her message, or whether we succumb to our own instincts and insecurities.

‘For those who have much, much more will be given. For those who have not, even that will be taken away.’ It is a question then of trusting in the great bounty that has sustained us even until now. to not trust in the bounty will become a self-fulfilling prophecy, if the wisdom of the ages is to be believed at any rate.
 
Acually, the problem you’re describing is a lack of population density, not a lack of population per se. In other words, it not that there aren’t enough people, it’s that we’re very spread out in many parts of the country.
It takes population to have density. The fact that we’re spread out, with huge, very underpopulated swaths separating the more densely populated areas tells you the population is small for the size of the country, particularly as compared to, say, Western Europe.
 
It takes population to have density. The fact that we’re spread out, with huge, very underpopulated swaths separating the more densely populated areas tells you the population is small for the size of the country, particularly as compared to, say, Western Europe.
It takes population concentrated in a smaller area to get higher density. You can even increase density with a decreasing population. Simply having more people won’t increase density if the additional people simply occupy previously unused land. Anyway, I was trying to address your original statement:
Lack of population is one of the reasons transportation (and thus energy) usage in this country is so high. It takes a lot of hauling to get people and goods to all the places they need to go.
Having more people won’t solve that problem. If current geographic patterns of population distribution were continued, more people would equal more energy use, not less. Putting people closer to the things they need and the places they need to go, and reducing the need for physical transportation, are the things that reduce per-capita transportation-related energy costs.
 
It takes population concentrated in a smaller area to get higher density. You can even increase density with a decreasing population. Simply having more people won’t increase density if the additional people simply occupy previously unused land. Anyway, I was trying to address your original statement:

Having more people won’t solve that problem. If current geographic patterns of population distribution were continued, more people would equal more energy use, not less. Putting people closer to the things they need and the places they need to go, and reducing the need for physical transportation, are the things that reduce per-capita transportation-related energy costs.
More people would almost certainly increase certain kinds of energy use, (home heating, for instance) but it likely would decrease others.

By way of example, long ago a factory of which I am aware was located very near to a large metro area. It was there because certain complementary industries were there and because an adequate labor force was there. It recently moved its whole operation here. Among its reasons were a sufficient labor force, which is greatly larger than it was even when I was a kid. Also, due to local development, another very complementary plant was moved here some years ago, and for similar reasons. The second plant mentioned had become a large user of the product of the first. Due to the move of the first, it now ships a very large segment of its product two blocks instead of 200+ miles.

Both plants use a considerable amount of an intermediate material produced by another manufacturer within another few blocks of both of them.

Walmart is a big purchaser of their products. Walmart’s warehouses and shipping center are only about 40 minutes away. Populations are not the only engine driving sucessful economic zones, but they are a very big factor. None of that would have happened without sufficient labor forces to support them. But the transportation costs of all of them except Walmart have been greatly reduced.

Now, why did the population here increase so greatly in the last 40 or so years? It was multi-factorial, and, one might say, “organic”. Part of it was the return of people who had years ago moved to more distant population centers and just wanted to come back. The natives tend to have larger than average families, and there were times when the local economy couldn’t support them all. Part of it was ingenuity of people like Sam Walton, Don Tyson, Jack Henry and J.B. Hunt (among many others less well known). Part of it was due to the fact that a lot of people think it’s pretty. Part of it was due to the fact that the actual population density is relatively low (though the population is fairly sizeable) because it’s spread out, and a lot of people like that kind of environment. Because it’s spread out, a reasonable supply of labor can be found almost anywhere within the area. Because of that, enterprises find it easier to set up than would be the case in an area where the countryside is deserted. One thing aids the other thing. But without an adequate population, none of it would be possible. I’ll grant that the fact that the area is non-union has played a role.

Obviously, if there was a larger population within, say, two hours of Walmart’s warehouses, more product could be shipped short distances by it. That’s true of everything. It might not make a whole lot of difference to Walmart’s enterprise as a whole, but it sure does for some enterprises.

Could other, virtually deserted, parts of the state have the same thing happen if the population was greater? There is no reason not to think so. But the reverse is certainly true. If an area depopulates, the whole economy collapses and they generally don’t make a comeback. (Don’t invest in Italian real estate ;))

Population centers are where they are for various reasons. St. Louis, for example, is there because of the confluence of two major rivers and the near confluence of a third. But river traffic is no longer the reason why it’s there, though it once was. Its metro area is what it is because there is a population to serve and a labor force that can be accessed. People attract people and enterprise, just as enterprise attracts people and other enterprise.

But in my area, there are no navigable rivers, no minerals to mine, no seaports, none of the historic reasons. There were just people who tended to have fairly large families and who would stay put if they could. And some of them were adept at creating enterprises that would employ the ones who did.
 
Jobs in America used to come from entrepreneurship, from the desire to grow one’s business and profit. As America becomes increasingly socialized, jobs will come from the government.
In which case, even more jobs and a larger payroll will end up being a drain.
And a smaller and smaller workforce paying a larger and larger proportion of their payroll and profits into taxes is a disinsentive to work.

It takes faith to have children for sure, to trust in life enough to bring forth children into an uncertain future. Suffice to say technology itself has not led to the drain in jobs that was once feared. Vast proportions of the American population has become employed in the new technology. Not only have there been more than enough jobs in such a highly technologized country, but there were plenty enough jobs for a large proportion of the Mexican workforce as well.

Europe likewise has needed to import workers that their own labor force and low birth rates have been failing to produce on their own. Even in such a densely populated area as Europe apparently, the idea that there were too many people for a technological workforce just has not panned out. European governments and business leaders had to import the workers to fill the jobs that their own indigenous population were too insecure to procreate on their own.

It really does take faith though to bring children into this world. The reasons ‘why not’ will always be there. the greater the freedom, the greater the uncertainty.

Above all it is a matter of trust in life itself.

The Church is there to teach us that life— with all its vagaries and uncertainties and suffering, in spite of all that suffering and uncertainty, maybe even because of the suffering and uncertainty— is nevertheless good. Where there are children, there is hope. Is there anything more quintessentially Christian than the icon of Madonna and Child?

I think that is what it all boils down to, whether we will trust in the Church and her message, or whether we succumb to our own instincts and insecurities.

‘For those who have much, much more will be given. For those who have not, even that will be taken away.’ It is a question then of trusting in the great bounty that has sustained us even until now. to not trust in the bounty will become a self-fulfilling prophecy, if the wisdom of the ages is to be believed at any rate.
I agree with this.

Not long ago, I had occasion, on another thread, to look up the tax rates in Italy because a poster said the horribly low birth rates in Italy (according to a poll there) were due largely to Italians’ belief that they could not support children. (or so they said).

If you compare Italian income tax rates to those of the U.S. (for now :rolleyes:) U.S. rates are much lower at all levels, but particularly in the middle and upper income levels. Italian rates start high and end much higher. They also have a VAT tax there. Doubtless they also have local taxes. It’s no wonder Italians don’t have any money.

Even so, one has to wonder whether they have become dispirited by following secular voices instead of that of the Church.

As far as the current unemployment in the U.S. is concerned, I think it would already have evaporated but for the tremendous fear small businesses have of this government. Sooner or later, all of this government’s proposals will have passed or failed to pass, and once people at least know what they are going to have happen to them, they can better figure out what to do going forward and things will likely improve at least somewhat. But I know a lot of small businesspeople, and it’s just a fact that they aren’t hiring or investing because they don’t know what’s coming next, except higher taxes and probably higher energy prices. But they don’t really know what those added costs will be or what other burdens they’re going to get.
 
Well, that, at least, is certain.

From a civilizational standpoint, the key is having enough new people born to replace us.
The place to look at is Japan. Th Japanese have pretty much given up on having children, withe the birth rate at 1.2. They also don’t believe in immigration. Pretty soon one person in three will be over 65.
 
The demographic shift is most likely the greatest problem facing our country. However, due to the power of the 24 news cycle few politicians have an incentive to address such long-term concerns.
 
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