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Padres1969
Guest
Got what they voted for. Buyers remorse is going to be the term of day for 2017.
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Vouthon
Guest
Couldn’t agree more (although I certainly didn’t vote for it!)
The signs are already beginning to show in the polling data and Brexit hasn’t even been triggered yet (with be later on this month formally by the Prime Minister, unless the Lords hold it up a bit longer). A fresh poll out today:
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-plan-leave-eu-no-plan-uk-public-oppose-prime-minister-a7614526.html
The “phony war” phase of Brexit is finally coming to an end now.
As Churchill would say, it is not the end nor even the beginning of the end but it is the end of the beginning.
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Ridgerunner
Guest
This assumes, of course, that demand for goods is not also rising.
Inflation is always a relative thing. It’s importance is relative to what people earn and to what people buy. So, for example, the stated inflation rate in the U.S. was long held down by cheap foreign imports and the lack of price increases in housing, particularly in rents. But if you went to the grocery store, inflation was looking back at you from the shelves.
At least in America, the Fed has long maintained that an inflation rate of 2% is desirable. But employment has a big effect on inflation because it increases the demand for goods and services. Britain has essentially a “negative” unemployment rate. It has a 4.8% unemployment rate, but also has millions of foreign workers. In other words, there are more jobs than people to fill them. That’s “full employment plus”.
The U.S. unemployment rate is almost exactly the same as Britain’s, but Britain’s labor utilization rate is significantly higher than in the U.S. In other words, there are more Brits in the labor force as a percentage of the population than there are Americans, and Britain has lots of foreign workers besides.
That’s going to create “demand pull” inflation.
But Brits can still choose to be ruled by Germany. There’s still time.
Inflation is always a relative thing. It’s importance is relative to what people earn and to what people buy. So, for example, the stated inflation rate in the U.S. was long held down by cheap foreign imports and the lack of price increases in housing, particularly in rents. But if you went to the grocery store, inflation was looking back at you from the shelves.
At least in America, the Fed has long maintained that an inflation rate of 2% is desirable. But employment has a big effect on inflation because it increases the demand for goods and services. Britain has essentially a “negative” unemployment rate. It has a 4.8% unemployment rate, but also has millions of foreign workers. In other words, there are more jobs than people to fill them. That’s “full employment plus”.
The U.S. unemployment rate is almost exactly the same as Britain’s, but Britain’s labor utilization rate is significantly higher than in the U.S. In other words, there are more Brits in the labor force as a percentage of the population than there are Americans, and Britain has lots of foreign workers besides.
That’s going to create “demand pull” inflation.
But Brits can still choose to be ruled by Germany. There’s still time.
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SuperLuigi
Guest
This effect will be short-term especially compared to the protection racket called the EU.
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Fiasco
Guest
Indeed.
This effect will be short-term especially compared to the protection racket called the EU.
Freedom always has its price, and it’ll be worth paying for.
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RomanoAmerio
Guest
Now that the United Kingdom has left the European Union, will she reform the Commonwealth? 
T
Trader
Guest
It’s Trump’s fault.
Prospects for faster growth in the US and tougher negotiations for trade deals have pushed up the US Dollar. The possibility of a border adjustment tax is also expected to raise the dollar even more. Less regulation of US businesses will also raise US productivity and further strengthen the dollar.
The relative devaluation of currencies against the dollar may stimulate exports but raise the cost of imports for the UK and other countries. The remedy for this would be higher productivity of your own, but that seems contrary to long term trends.
Prospects for faster growth in the US and tougher negotiations for trade deals have pushed up the US Dollar. The possibility of a border adjustment tax is also expected to raise the dollar even more. Less regulation of US businesses will also raise US productivity and further strengthen the dollar.
The relative devaluation of currencies against the dollar may stimulate exports but raise the cost of imports for the UK and other countries. The remedy for this would be higher productivity of your own, but that seems contrary to long term trends.
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Padres1969
Guest
The Commonwealth still exists…Now that the United Kingdom has left the European Union, will she reform the Commonwealth?
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RomanoAmerio
Guest
I was being partly facetious, Padre.
I meant, will the United Kingdom now try to strengthen it as an “alternative” (a popular word these days! When I was a young man, it referred to a particular form of noisy music sung by men in scruffy clothes. 
) to the European Union, which is often seen as corrupt in many ways? Some of us are still Anglophiles. 
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Padres1969
Guest
We’ll see. I wouldn’t count on it however. As it is costs for many thing that were tied to the EU will be permanently increased.
This effect will be short-term especially compared to the protection racket called the EU.
I can only speak to my own field in that regard, but currently any trademarks my company files for now cost twice as much as we have to file in both the UK and EU as EU protections will no longer extend to the UK and vice versa. I’d hazard a guess that this is no the only field being impacted where people will have to pay twice what they did previously if they do business inside the EU and in the UK. Also has to make one wonder how many will simply not do business in the UK with the added costs to now do so.
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SuperLuigi
Guest
This trend isn’t unexpected. There’s always a few wrinkles in these kinds of transitions.
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SuperLuigi
Guest
There’s going to be some negative feed-back loops like that. But it’s the same thing in my field (safety science) where it costs more up front but in the end you save yourself from million euro lawsuits from worker injury.
And to be openly honest, if the mere expense of filing trademarks would make or a break a company, something is seriously wrong.
In the EU prices for consumers are already high because the government protects inefficient industries with trade protectionist policies that are absurd. The UK hasn’t even been able to get a trade deal with India.
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liturgyluver
Guest
Why do you keep repeating this nonsense about the UK being unable to agree a trade deal with India? Simply not true.
ibtimes.co.uk/modi-uk-visit-david-cameron-signs-9bn-trade-deals-indian-prime-minister-1528528
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SuperLuigi
Guest
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liturgyluver
Guest
“Indian business welcomes UK Trade Deal” The delay was about a Trade deal between India and the EU. Britain had negotiated its own deal with India as my previous link demonstrated, the deal was worth £9 billion, so hardly trivial.
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SuperLuigi
Guest
The primary point is they HAD to go through Brussels to get things done. But it’s going to be a moot point soon.
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