Look, this as a classic abuse of statistics. Since my last attempt at analogy failed miserably I’ll try this one.
Suppose I set up a new lottery. Payoff is $500. There are only three digits. So each time you play, you have a 1 in 999 chance of winning, right? Now, let us assume that you have already played 700 times and lost every one. What are your odds of winning the next time? By YOUR understanding of the law of averages, the next time you play, you will have a 1 in 299 chance of winning.
Unfortunately, you’d be wrong. Each time you play, you have a 1/999 chance of winning. BEFORE ever play, you can expect about a 50% chance that you’ll win at least once if you play 701 times. But once you have played 700 times and lost, the odds that you’ll win on the 701st time drop back to 0.1%.
In the same way, the average unborn child back then might only have an average life expectancy of 30 years or so. (I’ll leave that to others to decide) But for a man in his 30’s who had already survived the scourges that killed so many kids in those days, those figures are meaningless. You’d need to recompute the odds to be based on how long the average man WHO LIVED TO AT LEAST 33 would THEN expect to live. You have NOT presented such data.
Besides all the statistics lessons, you are arguing your point from a terribly weak position when a much better one is available. If someone is foolish enough to suggest that Jesus survived the cross instead of being resurrected, just ask the claimant to demonstrate how it is, in fact, possible to be nailed on a cross, hang there for hours, have a lance thrust through his side, be placed in a guarded tomb with no access to medical help for at least 30 hours and then RECOVER? That’s loonier than the old age statistics argument!
Sadly, just because someone’s argument is grossly faulty, that does NOT mean you will be able to change his mind. With that said, I’ll be taking my own advice regarding this thread. Cheers!