What differentiates stable nations from unstable ones?

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Another thread prompted me to think: What is it that has made the US, the UK, Canada and similar nations politically stable compared to other nations? I don’t mean stable in terms of the same party, but the same basic governmental system.

What makes these nations stable while others such as Mexico, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Egypt and a host of others prone to much more frequent changes in the basic frame of government (revolution, peaceful or otherwise)?

My first thought was of two elements: an educated populace and a broad distribution of wealth. Without these, all the laws, Constitutions, police or military powers in the world can’t bring stability because the mass of the people will have a pent up desire for change.

I know we’ve had a bunch of economic threads lately, but this bears pondering. If current trends continue and wealth continues to concentrate instead of broaden in distribution, will the stability of our own country eventually suffer? Food for the ‘greed is good’ folks to think about!
 
Another thread prompted me to think: What is it that has made the US, the UK, Canada and similar nations politically stable compared to other nations? I don’t mean stable in terms of the same party, but the same basic governmental system.

What makes these nations stable while others such as Mexico, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Egypt and a host of others prone to much more frequent changes in the basic frame of government (revolution, peaceful or otherwise)?

My first thought was of two elements: an educated populace and a broad distribution of wealth. Without these, all the laws, Constitutions, police or military powers in the world can’t bring stability because the mass of the people will have a pent up desire for change.

I know we’ve had a bunch of economic threads lately, but this bears pondering. If current trends continue and wealth continues to concentrate instead of broaden in distribution, will the stability of our own country eventually suffer? Food for the ‘greed is good’ folks to think about!
You’ll get one answer here:

Countries that are the closest to an Ayn Randian utopia are the most stable. All hail the unregulated “free” market.
 
Not at all. CAF is where I picked up my Distributist tendency. Read more, not just the loudest and most persistant.
 
The Special Warfare Center has done many studies on stability. A dictatorship can be stable, but will usually ultimately be convulsed when another dictator steps in.

In democracies, capiralism is in fact a stabilizing factor – this is often traced to the economic committment the people have to stability (think “Revolution??? I could lose my job, my house, my life savings!”)
 
The Special Warfare Center has done many studies on stability. A dictatorship can be stable, but will usually ultimately be convulsed when another dictator steps in.

In democracies, capiralism is in fact a stabilizing factor – this is often traced to the economic committment the people have to stability (think “Revolution??? I could lose my job, my house, my life savings!”)
In the absence of a strong middle class, like today, this is so. People are so busy trying to simply survive that they don’t have time to inform themselves and get involved in the political life of the nation. Alan Greenspan has said as much.

On the other hand, when there is a strong middle class, the people tend to get uppity and start demanding things like “rights” and such, as the American Revolution and the 60’s demonstrate.
 
In the absence of a strong middle class, like today, this is so. People are so busy trying to simply survive that they don’t have time to inform themselves and get involved in the political life of the nation. Alan Greenspan has said as much.
Alan Greenspan isn’t noted for his diplomatic or military knowledge.😛
On the other hand, when there is a strong middle class, the people tend to get uppity and start demanding things like “rights” and such, as the American Revolution and the 60’s demonstrate.
Let me point out the American Revolution was a conservative revolution – it was fought to preserve what the Americans already had.

The French Revolution would be more enlightening on this point – it was started by the aristocrats, then turned on them and destroyed them. The current French Republic is the Fifth Republic. Between the French Revolution of the 1780s and now there have been four previous republics.
 
in stable countries a change in government takes place through an orderly electoral process. If something circumvents that process, like an assassination, the entire nation mourns the victim, and the orderly process of government goes on. In an unstable government in any crisis, up to and including an assassination of a political leader, there is an unruly element of the population, easily manipulated by demogogues, who act like football fans after a victory. The ignorance of the populace and the ease with which they can be so manipulated is certainly a big factor.
 
Stable countries have a reasonably homogeneous population. The people do not differ radically in their beliefs. While they will campaign valiantly, they will accept whichever candidate wins. The results will not be all that different.

I heard Eric von Kuehnelt-Leddihn speak on this fifty years ago. He believed that democracy would only work in northern Europe where the parties were not greatly different. At that time the Southern Europe countries were passionate in their beliefs. All that kept France and Italy from civil war was the wekness of their multi-party governments which kept the government from doing anything serious. He noted that this was the strength of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The emperor had no illusion that he had a mandate from the people so did as little as possible to annoy them.
 
Alan Greenspan isn’t noted for his diplomatic or military knowledge.😛
No, but he was basically in charge of the Fed, therefore the economy, for a good long time. His voice carried a lot of weight in the business community and he specifically said that his policies were intended to keep working class people so insecure about their job sitatuion that they would have no time to get uppity and demand raises, benefits and better working conditions.

IOW, a right-wing conservative’s DREAM!
Let me point out the American Revolution was a conservative revolution – it was fought to preserve what the Americans already had.
You just keep telling yourself that. :rolleyes:

Revolutions, by there very NATURE are not conservative but radical.
 
Let me point out the American Revolution was a conservative revolution – it was fought to preserve what the Americans already had.
Absolutely! At the time of the American Revolution, the colonial populace was the world’s wealthiest, per capita, by far. Availability of cheap land was part of it. But a relative lack of constraints on wealth acquisition was also a big part. As a consequence, wealth in the form of productive assets was widely distributed notwithstanding that there were very wealthy “capitalists” in the populace as well.

Stability, other than that imposed by iron dictatorships, is the product of the general acquiescence of the populace. People don’t rebel when there’s little to be upset about, and when they think their system is at least nearly as good as they could invent themselves.

But stability isn’t stable. It’s an ongoing process, and requires balance. Even in Russia, the Stolypin reforms made a lot of people happy; probably the majority. Certainly, they improved the lot of the peasants, who were regarded as reactionary by the Bolsheviks and, when it came to owning their land and enjoying the fruits of their own labor, were quite conservative. But there was a minority of violently dissatisfied people, primarily industrial workers, soldiers and sailors, and ciminally-minded leaders to manipulate that dissatisfaction.

A stable society is like a living human body. There are destructive forces at work all the time, as well as restorative processes. The restorative processes maintain the upper hand or the whole system breaks down.
 
he specifically said that his policies were intended to keep working class people so insecure about their job sitatuion that they would have no time to get uppity and demand raises, benefits and better working conditions.
Can you provide a link that shows where he said this? I must have missed it.
 
Another thread prompted me to think: What is it that has made the US, the UK, Canada and similar nations politically stable compared to other nations? I don’t mean stable in terms of the same party, but the same basic governmental system.

What makes these nations stable while others such as Mexico, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Egypt and a host of others prone to much more frequent changes in the basic frame of government (revolution, peaceful or otherwise)?

My first thought was of two elements: an educated populace and a broad distribution of wealth. Without these, all the laws, Constitutions, police or military powers in the world can’t bring stability because the mass of the people will have a pent up desire for change.

I know we’ve had a bunch of economic threads lately, but this bears pondering. If current trends continue and wealth continues to concentrate instead of broaden in distribution, will the stability of our own country eventually suffer? Food for the ‘greed is good’ folks to think about!
It depends on how one defines ‘stability’. In American sense, it is slanted on preserving its Jeffersonian ideals. Most western governments emphasize adherence to democratic processes in instituting changes and in shifting of power.
In Asia, economic power is shifting to China and emerging economies as it becomes bigger than US economy in a few years. As such, stability is seen in terms of securing economic prosperity to its citizenry while curtailing political rights.
Stability is many things to many people.
 
Can you provide a link that shows where he said this? I must have missed it.
pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/NYT/GREE1WSJ.HTM

About halfway through, you’ll read:
Now, Mr. Greenspan has a different mantra: Workers’ fear of losing their jobs restrains them from seeking the pay raises that usually crop up when employers have trouble finding people to hire.
Even if the economy didn’t slow down as he expected, he told Fed colleagues last summer, he saw little danger of a sudden upturn in wages and prices. “Because workers are more worried about their own job security and their marketability if forced to change jobs, they are apparently accepting smaller increases in their compensation at any given level of labor-market tightness,” Mr. Greenspan told Congress at the time.
 
This is not exactly on topic, but maybe I can tie it together.

Greenspan has a lot more education in economic matters and a lot more experience than do I. However, I have to question his wisdom (and did then) when, out of fear of deflation he pumped up the money supply and reduced interest rates to ridiculous lows. That encouraged a lot of speculation and risky lending practices that are now coming home to roost. I watched it all happen, and knew the piper would have to be paid someday. And for what? The rapid and massive influx of a lot of cheap foreign goods did, indeed, bring consumer prices down. But was that really deflation, or just an influx of cheap foreign goods? At that time, the dollar was worth more than the Euro, financial institutions were solid, the stock market was doing well, and there was no subprime mess or housing value crisis. Look at it all now.

For him to come back around now and pontificate like some delphic oracle is a little difficult for me to take without my gorge rising just a bit.

So, to get back on topic, stability is also dependant on the wisdom of those who can greatly affect the lives of others, and the health of the body politic. It also depends on the willingness of the populace to be skeptical of the pronoucements of those whose policies do not work.
 

In democracies, capiralism is in fact a stabilizing factor – this is often traced to the economic committment the people have to stability (think “Revolution??? I could lose my job, my house, my life savings!”)
Isn’t that kinda what I said? If they HAVE a job that pays enough to own a house and have a life savings, then they are part of that broad distribution of wealth upon which stability rests.
 
Another thread prompted me to think: What is it that has made the US, the UK, Canada and similar nations politically stable compared to other nations? I don’t mean stable in terms of the same party, but the same basic governmental system.
First, how do you define ‘stable’. The UK has experienced an empirial collapse in recent history, has on going terrorism problems, and two strong seperatist movements. And, of course, it actually dabbles in three quite different political forms - that is, it is functionally a democracy, but has a working government that openly includes socialism and a monarchy.

Canada is an immense country with essentially the population of a large western state, yet it still has a an aggressive seperatist movement.

And the US, of course, not only had a horrificly bloody civil war, we have deployed troops on US soil to quelch large scale civil disobidience multiple times in my lifetime. In my father’s life, we had to shift from largely lasse faire capitolism to significant socialist mechanisms to hold the nation together. Currently we seemed to be locked in struggle to maintain basic civil liberties.

And, for all our clucking about instability in the middle east, central america, etc., western societies have engaged in world wars, one killing roughly 50,000,000 people.
What makes these nations stable while others such as Mexico, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Egypt and a host of others prone to much more frequent changes in the basic frame of government (revolution, peaceful or otherwise)?
Each of these is quite different. For example Just a few generations ago Russia was a long standing monarchy/dictatorship. There was a massive civil uprising, and the resulting country rose to super power status in less than 60 years. The transition to democracy was fairly low casuality and despite all the rhetoric, economic development and systemic development have been surprisingly swift.

Stability often hinges more on external factors than anything else. Look at water monopolies, historically they have been incredibly stable, until internal corruption and decay makes them vulnerable to external hordes. And we see the same in developing regions in recent history - consider Guatamala and Afghanistan.

And, of course, we have to seperate rhetoric from reality. For example, our “allies” the Saud’s, happened to also be the nationality of most of the 9/11 terrorists. Not surprising, because $70B in oil money has gone to appease Wahabism. The ‘stability’ is the result of a triangle of self interest. The US, needing oil, gets modern arms to the Sauds. The House of Saud, in turn, feeds lots of money to appease extremists. Still, massive discontent and religious extremism flourishes - but since the modern weapons and massive oil revenues maintain ‘stability’, the consequences are often seen elsewhere.

For example, when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, and actively dismantled the moderately democratic institutions, the Islamic extremism filled the vacuum. That regime, like Saddam’s more secular regime in Iraq, was relatively stable. Both took external forces to remove, but since the basic needs of human existance are not being met, both regions remain highly unstable.

All these involve widely varying forms of government so I doubt that there is a simple answer to your question. Democracy, without constitutional protection for the basic rights of the human person, is not inherently stable. Look at South Africa over the last 100 years. Similiarly, it is silly to assert that unfettered capitolism is inherently stable. Capitolism, without countering government mechanisms and policies, inevitably leads to “Grapes of Wrath” scenarios (if that seems ancient, try ‘Mortgage fiasco’).

Personally, I think that the Church has it right. The most critical component for a stable society is a widespread recognition of the inalienable rights of the human person (as well defined by the Second Vatican Council). Where this belief is alive and widely held, a society can relatively flourish even under very evil institutions. Look at Iran and Cuba. The typical US citizen would feel far more comfortable (and inarguably be a lot safer) interacting with average citizens in these two hated enemy nations than in many ‘friendly’ nations around the world.

On the flip side, the absense of this belief can erode even great institutions. For example, I still cannot wholly fathom how we became the nation of secret prisons, torture, and open claims of wholly unchecked presidential powers. But I think that our culture of fear, division, and hate are a big part. Hate the minority, fear the very poor… Being the opposite of Christ’s message, it seems predictable that the outcome is oppressive and evil.
 
You presume rather too much about my views, but I certainly agree with your central point: a stable nation must protect the human rights and inherent dignity of individuals. Add that one to my previous list of two:
  1. Broad distribution of wealth
  2. Educational opportunity.
  3. Consistent defense in law of basic human rights.
I hope you aren’t serious in equating the degree of instability of Canada (Quebec I presume) with places like many South American countries where revolution occurs routinely? Certainly there is a spectrum rather than a black and white dividing line, perhaps that is your point?
 
You presume rather too much about my views, but I certainly agree with your central point: a stable nation must protect the human rights and inherent dignity of individuals. Add that one to my previous list of two:
  1. Broad distribution of wealth
  2. Educational opportunity.
  3. Consistent defense in law of basic human rights.
I hope you aren’t serious in equating the degree of instability of Canada (Quebec I presume) with places like many South American countries where revolution occurs routinely? Certainly there is a spectrum rather than a black and white dividing line, perhaps that is your point?
I didn’t know that I was presuming anything about your views. I was pointing out that the first thing you have to do is decide what you mean by “stable”.

In the 20th century alone, I can think of at least 6 relatively long standing democracies that converted to facism. Rather it is Hitler and El Duche or Pinochet, you can literally go decade by decade and find an example.

In fact, if you look at the indicators that the State Department and CIA supposedly use to detect dictorial tendancies, things like an exaggerated internal or external threat, secret prisons, detention and torture outside the rule of law, paramilitary forces without checks and balances, and domestic surveilence, we are, by the state department definition at least, under facist rule today.

That is, Blackwater operates on US soil now (and has reportedly used it’s Chilean thugs to shoot at civilians in New Orleans as well as Bagdad), and the John Warner Defense Authorization Act of 2007 permits the President to send them to your home for indefinate detention and interogation. Rather or not dictorial powers are only used against ‘bad people’ is a different question from rather or not they exist. What is interesting about the DAA is that, as a detainee, you would have no right to challenge you detention on the basis of, say the Posse Comitatus Act. You are, expressly, removed from the ordinary rule of US law solely on the basis of one individual.

However, does being less free equate to being less stable? Or does only an uprising count? If the latter, what is the distinction between ‘criminal dissent’ and ‘rebellion’? In other words, does the jailing of Josh Wolf make him a criminal, or us a ‘bananna republic’?

Regarding Canada vs., say, Guatamala, my point is that the comparison is meaningless. Our constitution owes a great deal to a Native American coalition that appears to have lasted several centuries. Most of that relatively stable society experienced our manifest destiny expansion and were direct targets of our public policy of genocide - less than 100 years ago we were still systematically trying to erase their cultural existance. Canada’s national history is also a fairly bloody one of conquest.

So examining and judging a Guatamala on a small swath of time is misleading and unfair. In that particular instance, it is downright dishonest. Look up the origins of the term “bananna republic”. We, the US, actively participated in overthrowing an elected government there just a few decades ago. Like numerous other countries to our south, once we get involved in the process, we have no right to distance ourselves from the current instability.

Look at Christians in Iraq. From their piont of view Saddam’s rule was more stable than the last 5 years of US led liberation. We could point to lots of factors, like expending all our reconstruction dollars in cronyism and profiteers instead of Iraqis, or putting political ideologs with zero experience in charge of the process, but does that mean that dictatorship is ‘good’ and democracy is ‘bad’? Of course not, it just means that any system of governance that fails to meet certain criteria, like a steady supply of potable water for the population, is going to be unstable.

I think that all societies face potentially destabalizing threats and that having the majority of the population accept the Catholic premise of the inalienable rights of the human person (rather they describe it as such or not) is the only reliable antidote. Rather it is the great depression, the civil war, or the committee for UnAmerican activities, there will always be fallout from greedy and power hungry people, even here.

The long term result depends entirely on rather or not the majority gives in to fear mongering and keeps it’s head down or stands up and says no to say, US run gulags and a state department that performs coverups for the drunken, murdurous tendancies of ex-Pinochet thugs getting billion dollar no bid contracts from our government…

Assuming that freedom and stability are at all an inherent state is a rejection both of one’s civil responsiblities in a constitutional democracy and one’s personal responsibilities as a Christian.
 
Umm, best wipe the foam from your mouth there. I googled your act and found only the looniest sites support your interpretation of it. While there can be legitimate debate about how much bureacracy should stand between the President and emergency powers to use the military and national guard, it is not helpful to characterize people who have noticed that our current system is hopelessly mired in bureacracy as fascists. Think about it. Look at Katrina. If terrorists introduced a lethal virus into an American city do you think the current system would be up to enforcing a quarantine? no way.

Read closer. The “secret police” and thugs you fear are after you only have police powers over non-citizens. Furthermore, nobody has proposed these powers be used for the status quo, they are merely being set up to allow a smooth and orderly response should there be a mass sudden influx of illegal immigrants, possibly funded and coordinated by terrorists to swamp border security. The fact that folks like Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid don’t share your alarm ought to be rather telling. In any case, this thread seems now to be hopelessly off-track. sigh.
 
Umm, best wipe the foam from your mouth there. I googled your act and found only the looniest sites support your interpretation of it. While there can be legitimate debate about how much bureacracy should stand between the President and emergency powers to use the military and national guard, it is not helpful to characterize people who have noticed that our current system is hopelessly mired in bureacracy as fascists. Think about it. Look at Katrina. If terrorists introduced a lethal virus into an American city do you think the current system would be up to enforcing a quarantine? no way.

Read closer. The “secret police” and thugs you fear are after you only have police powers over non-citizens. Furthermore, nobody has proposed these powers be used for the status quo, they are merely being set up to allow a smooth and orderly response should there be a mass sudden influx of illegal immigrants, possibly funded and coordinated by terrorists to swamp border security. The fact that folks like Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid don’t share your alarm ought to be rather telling. In any case, this thread seems now to be hopelessly off-track. sigh.
Foaming would imply emotion. So far, you are the only one who appears to be experiencing (seemingly baseless) emotions of personal threat.

First and foremost, you are factually incorrect. Look at Blackwater’s own web site. Then look the GAO contract evaluations. The adminstration has also already argued the President’s inherent right to declare anyone a national security threat twice in Federal court.

Second, like “stable”, “loony” is something that we will need to define. Hundreds of constitutional scholars signed an amicus brief, the ACLU filed a suit, the NYT editorial board (along with many other editorial boards across the country) pointed out that there has been a radical shift in constiutional power.

If insulting me personally is your idea of coherent argument then the chances of productive conversation seem limited. However, I must concede that I find your explanation of the rationalization for a massive expansion of power a bit bewildering.

At the risk of bringing reality into the conversation, we’ve already had a massive influx of illegal aliens into this country, supposedly 12,000,000. And our borders are demonstrably pourous. All the terrorists who have attacked us that we can account for so far have entered the country legally - they haven’t needed to even resort to ‘Coyote’ tactics.

Also, what about such a strange, improbable scenario could possibly require constitutional revision? In five years and using a trillion dollars the President has failed to secure the road from the airport to central Bagdad. In six years and using two trillion dollars, the administration has failed to apprehend the individuals responsible for either 9/11 or the subsequent anthrax attack on US soil.

Further, private contractors now clearly appear to be a disaster in US security matters. The State Department has had to pay out hush money to cover misdeads and the private entities are proving to be one of the largest obstacles for winning over the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people in a bloody insurgency.

‘Loony’ is not the word I would use. Giving expansive new powers to an ineffectual military leader who insists on using a force that is demonstrably overpriced, dishonest, and counter productive just seems plain stupid to me.
 
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