Raiding Social Security is one of the great shames of the US Congress, but politically popular since it kept taxes down.
And there is no “Social Security Lock Box” never was and never will be … it always has been a type of “pyramid scheme” … where todays income earnerspay todays recipients…
It fails when there are fewer persons paying in then are receiving benefits … from its beginnings there has always been social security funds diverted to the general funds with that money spent on a host of programs unrelated to “Social Security” payments …
There is no “lock box.” Social security was NEVER raided. Regardless of what any politician says or any news pundit says. They simply don’t understand how the social security system works.
I do not isagree with your math
But the government does not “invest” the money taken from you into an account for you … it takes the money to spend on whatever it wants and then pays the retirees with someone else’s money

- thats the pyramid part of the scheme

…
And the government [via municipal bonds and other government ‘investment’ vehicles like the US Savings Bonds] has never paid your 10% return

… in fact - it is much less [just look at US Savings Bonds from 30 years ago and older] …
That’s the point and I wish more people actually understood this.
Social Security pays current beneficiaries out of current receipts gained from current workers. If there are more receipts than expenses, those receipts are invested in a special series of US Treasury Obligations that are available only to Social Security (a small portion is also invested in publicly available issues, as well…but not a significant portion). Interest from those obligations is reinvested, as well. If there are more expenses than receipts, the interest is used to pay out benefits…and if that doesn’t cover it, then those special issue obligations are cashed in.
There are two issues with this.
The first one is the obvious Ponzi-like nature of this. It’s not
really a Ponzi scheme, but it sure smells like one. For Social Security to work, there are two conditions that must be met: first – the population must continue to grow. I seem to recall that there needs to be something like 3 or 4 workers working for every beneficiary to receive proper benefits. With our culture’s contraceptive nature and with old folks living too long (to meet the needs of the actuarial tables, at least), the ratio is shrinking down to 2 to 1. That means that we won’t be able to sustain paying benefits with the current level of receipts – and will have to start tapping into the investments. If I remember correctly, this will start someplace between 2017 and 2034.
The second issue is…and this is the one NOBODY is talking about (or VERY FEW PEOPLE, at least)…have you, or any of the politicians out there considered, where the investments are invested? They pay the US debt. And when they start cashing in those investments, the money to pay out is going to have to come from somewhere. That means that either the Federal government will have to spend less on guns and butter or that they’ll have to issue more debt instruments. When they issue more debt instruments, they’ll have to pay more out on interest on those debt instruments, which means that they’ll have to spend less on guns and butter. Or increase taxes. (Again, IIRC, about 1/3 of our tax money goes to pay interest on the debt right now…that is only going to get worse).
Thank you FDR.