Your original question does not work because it is based on an unreal idea: If X does *not *lead to Y, what should we do, when X in reality leads to Y. Positing something that is not real and then asking a question about it makes no sense.
…Let me continue the analogy briefly. Let’s again assume for the moment that, in a particular country or city, outlawing abortions would cause women to get unsafe abortions, and thus the same number of babies would die, but also mothers would die.
The *reality *is that the same number of women would *not *get abortions, *because *of the illegality. The price would rise and there were be fewer willing to provide one, and women, having actual brains, would also change their activities so as not to find themselves pregnant with no recourse. (This is not to say that all women would begin to act chastely, but they would be more careful about the circumstances.)
Is the society more just for having moral laws, even though there is an increased harm to individuals? Is this still a desirable outcome?
Since the consequence of the law would *not *be an increased harm to individuals, there is no question here.
The reason I pose this issue is because there are many who agree that abortion is immoral, but argue that practically, outlawing abortions would only result in a similar number of “back alley” abortions which would harm women more. I’m trying to figure out if this argument can be won without resorting to arguing about statistics. In other words, “even if outlawing abortions does what you say, it is still a worthy goal because…”
This is based on the false idea that the number of abortions was about the same before and after legalization. Before Roe v Wade, abortion proponents were saying that the number of abortions would not go up (which was wrong), that all that legalization would do would be to render abortion safer for those women who would have them anyway.
This turned out not to be the case.
When people bring the idea up that abortion numbers would remain the same if they were outlawed, you need to challenge them on this point. Ask them what evidence they have for this, considering X (that the number of abortions went up drastically, both in real numbers and percentage-wise, after legalization).
And if they are so darned concerned about the safety of women, what about the rise in STD’s during the same period (part of which can also be blamed on the development of ABC methods which do not protect against STDs)?
And maybe they are also concerned about children living in poverty? Because the biggest determinant of a child’s living in poverty is whether his or her parents are married and together. Children from single-family homes are
more likely to live in poverty (69% of children born to never-married mothers, 45% of children who live with their divorced mothers; 25% of all children in the USA). Maybe we should outlaw extra-marital sex?
To be honest, if the only argument your discussion partner has is the fallacious idea that the only result of outlawing abortion would be an increase in harm to mothers (since abortion harms *all *the babies involved), challenge him on that rather than assuming he has a point which needs to be countered.