Where's Osama?

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The rumors on several jihadist Web sites say a new message from Osama bin Laden is coming soon.

It’s been almost four months since one of those videotapes or audiotapes surfaced.

There was a flurry of bin Laden messages at the end of last year. First, a videotape appeared four days before the U.S. presidential vote – the one Sen. John Kerry cited in post-election interviews as contributing to his loss to President Bush. Two more messages appeared in December.

It seemed that bin Laden had re-emerged, at least as a propagandist, and that he was becoming increasingly brazen in getting his word out.

But now he’s gone quiet, and at least one analyst says that could be good news.

“I don’t think he’s got anything to say at the moment,” says Paul Eedle, a freelance journalist who began monitoring al Qaeda and Islamist Web sites before the September 11 attacks. “At least nothing that bin Laden can point to as a success.”

Eedle says the last round of bin Laden’s audio and video appearances reflected the rise of the Iraqi insurgency. That was a few months ago when, at least possibly in bin Laden’s view – and the insurgents’ – “victory looked possible,” says Eedle, a former Reuters correspondent who specializes in reporting on the Middle East and militant Islam, and is currently writing a book about al Qaeda’s propaganda and media strategies. After the videotape on the eve of the U.S. election, there were two messages in December. One indicated how quickly bin Laden seemed able to respond to news events if he wanted to, praising Saudis who launched a terror attack on the U.S. Consulate in Jeddah days after it took place.

(Excerpt) Read more at edition.cnn.com
 
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