P
PseuTonym
Guest
Actually, you have a hypothesis that lets you imagine making predictions. You cannot actually predict people’s actions. Predicting their actions would require you to be one step ahead of everybody else in terms of insights, ideas, inventiveness, and creativity.I have seen how predictable people’s actions always are.
Watch a chess game of Kasparov versus somebody else. Watch from the beginning of the game. Before each move that Kasparov makes, can you predict his move? Give yourself as much time as you like, and you still won’t be able to predict his move. So, how far into the future can you predict?
In the case of chess, it is actually quite easy to create a list of possibilities if you are not looking ahead beyond one move that Kasparov is to make. It can be tedious, but it is simple. The difficult part is selecting his move.
There are at least two different kinds of predictions of human behavior. Here is one kind of prediction: given a list of possibilities, you can select one. We have seen that selecting the one actual action from a list of possibilities can be extremely challenging.
However, there is another kind of prediction: creating a list of possibilities. Outside of artificial situations like chess, you cannot create a list of possibilities that is guaranteed to include the actual choice that a person will make. It’s not merely challenging. Perhaps God can do it, but we cannot.
Should I believe that you could have invented all musical instruments, and composed all existing music?
Given nothing but the astronomy of Ptolemy and the physics of Aristotle, could you have thought of the science and technology that makes it possible to broadcast and receive radio signals?
Now, we can put it together …
The radio is turned on. You need to know only the year, month, day, time of day, and the frequency of a radio station,. Before you hear any music, you already know what you will hear.
You can say, “Ah, Toccata and Fugue in D minor. I could have predicted that J. S. Bach would write that. I would have written it myself if he hadn’t done it first. I could have played it exactly the way this performer is playing it. Given the radio frequency, the date, and the time of day, I could have predicted that this would be playing.”
Do you really believe that? I don’t.