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MarysLurker
Guest
OP’s articles cite studies forecasting population declines in all of those countries as well.
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mercyalways
Guest
Cheer up, I believe all your prognostications are wrong.
Say thank you to science. In 1980 1-in-2 people in the world lived in extreme poverty. By 2005 that number was cut in half. The trends suggest that between 2030 to 2040 - baring any world wars or the like - extreme poverty will vanish.
However, it is true that population is declining worldwide, with few exceptions. For example, India: Now, majority of families have 2 or less kids | India News - Times of IndiaAnd the problem with concluding that global warming will soon ruin life on earth is that there is an extreme liberal cancel culture in western academia which makes it impossible for anyone with an alternative argument to present it.
Look at what happened to one poor woman who dared to publish an article attacking even one tiny aspect of global warming: Professor fired after claiming polar bears are thriving in climate change - The Jerusalem PostThere is a problem about drinking water but good news! Humans are smart:
https://returntonow.net/2020/02/28/...twater-into-drinking-water-for-35000-kenyans/
Scientists turn seawater into drinkable freshwater with metal compounds, sunlight - UPI.comstrong text
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mercyalways
Guest
Most people know that wealthier countries have catastrophically low fertility. Canada’s fertility rate is 1.6, Spain’s is 1.5, South Korea’s is 1.24, Japan’s is 1.46.
What most people don’t is that the population is either sliding into decline or teetering on the edge of it. India, which most people somehow continue to imagine is teeming with large families, actually has a fertility rate of 2.2. Muslim countries, which most people assume have high growth rates, are either in decline or slowing. Iran’s rate is 1.8.
Africa and a handful of small countries stand alone in rising fertility rates, with Malawi at 5.05 births per woman, and Niger at 6.62, All of these combined will in no way slow the population decline worldwide.
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mercyalways
Guest
Most people know that wealthier countries have catastrophically low fertility. Canada’s fertility rate is 1.6, Spain’s is 1.5, South Korea’s is 1.24, Japan’s is 1.46.
What most people don’t realize is that most countries are either sliding into decline or teetering on the edge of it. India, which most people somehow continue to imagine is teeming with large families, actually has a fertility rate of 2.2. Muslim countries, which most people assume have high growth rates, are either in decline or slowing. Iran’s rate is 1.8.
Africa and a handful of small countries stand alone in rising fertility rates, with Malawi at 5.05 births per woman, and Niger at 6.62, All of these combined will in no way slow the population decline worldwide.
Once upon a time - about the 1970s - Europe had seven workers for every elderly pensioner. But Europe forgot to reproduce. Guess what. Today Europe will soon have one worker for every elderly pensioner. Please explain how that one employee can make enough to support himself and pay to keep the pensioner fed, clothed, and with good access to medical care.
Population decline will mean a breakdown in welfare and social services of all kinds. With fewer workers, fewer paychecks, taxes will fall, so where is money to come from to pay for all sorts of services, such as the police and the garbage men?
There will be a true crisis in care for the elderly. People are living longer, but needing vast increases in medical care. Once upon a time, when people had large families, the elderly were cared for by their loved ones. Today, with huge numbers of single people, and mothers with only one child, the government is required to step in and fund more care for the elderly. Which they will have to do with a collapsing tax base.
With fewer young adults, schools will close, as will bus lines, restaurants - all sorts of businesses will be dramatically impacted by a falling population. Imagine the impact on housing alone. House prices will collapse, as there will be fewer people to buy, and those people will have much less money, since so much of their earnings will go to help pay for government services for the elderly.
Some people argue that deflation and a worldwide monetary depression are two possible consequences.
The crisis will begin sooner than you think. One source claims China’s main state pension fund will run out of money by 2035.
What most people don’t realize is that most countries are either sliding into decline or teetering on the edge of it. India, which most people somehow continue to imagine is teeming with large families, actually has a fertility rate of 2.2. Muslim countries, which most people assume have high growth rates, are either in decline or slowing. Iran’s rate is 1.8.
Africa and a handful of small countries stand alone in rising fertility rates, with Malawi at 5.05 births per woman, and Niger at 6.62, All of these combined will in no way slow the population decline worldwide.
Once upon a time - about the 1970s - Europe had seven workers for every elderly pensioner. But Europe forgot to reproduce. Guess what. Today Europe will soon have one worker for every elderly pensioner. Please explain how that one employee can make enough to support himself and pay to keep the pensioner fed, clothed, and with good access to medical care.
Population decline will mean a breakdown in welfare and social services of all kinds. With fewer workers, fewer paychecks, taxes will fall, so where is money to come from to pay for all sorts of services, such as the police and the garbage men?
There will be a true crisis in care for the elderly. People are living longer, but needing vast increases in medical care. Once upon a time, when people had large families, the elderly were cared for by their loved ones. Today, with huge numbers of single people, and mothers with only one child, the government is required to step in and fund more care for the elderly. Which they will have to do with a collapsing tax base.
With fewer young adults, schools will close, as will bus lines, restaurants - all sorts of businesses will be dramatically impacted by a falling population. Imagine the impact on housing alone. House prices will collapse, as there will be fewer people to buy, and those people will have much less money, since so much of their earnings will go to help pay for government services for the elderly.
Some people argue that deflation and a worldwide monetary depression are two possible consequences.
The crisis will begin sooner than you think. One source claims China’s main state pension fund will run out of money by 2035.
“Change everything?”
It’ll change a lot of things, don’t know if I’d call it “everything”.
One result will be, there will be vast demographic shifts, that will be agreeable to some, and not-so-agreeable to others. People who welcome children will grow in numbers, while people who do not welcome children, or only “welcome” them in small numbers, will have their populations shrink accordingly. Populations beyond replacement level increase geometrically, not arithmetically. Majorities will become minorities, and vice versa. Again, this will work to some people’s advantage, and not to other people’s advantage.
Something about the meek inheriting the earth?
It’ll change a lot of things, don’t know if I’d call it “everything”.
One result will be, there will be vast demographic shifts, that will be agreeable to some, and not-so-agreeable to others. People who welcome children will grow in numbers, while people who do not welcome children, or only “welcome” them in small numbers, will have their populations shrink accordingly. Populations beyond replacement level increase geometrically, not arithmetically. Majorities will become minorities, and vice versa. Again, this will work to some people’s advantage, and not to other people’s advantage.
Something about the meek inheriting the earth?
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HerCrazierHalf
Guest
But is infinite population growth sustainable?
Maybe we need to understand that most human systems are Ponzi Schemes of sorts
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JimG
Guest
TFR for India: 2.35
TFR for Indonesia: 2.04
TFR for Indonesia: 2.04
ralfyman
New member
I think extreme poverty refers to earning less than $2 daily. What I mentioned is based on a living wage, or $10 a day. 71 pct of people worldwide can’t reach that, and they want to do so.
But in order to do that, we will need more energy and material resources than there are available. That’s because our ecological footprint has exceeded biocapacity:
Population is not declining worldwide. As explained in the article referred to in the OP, it will peak in 2064. The problem is that limitations have been reached even before that, as explained in my post.
Global warming problems do not involve “an extreme liberal cancel culture in [W]estern academia” but the NAS and even Berkeley Earth, which was funded by skeptics. In addition, reports on the same have been issued by the U.S. military, the Pentagon, Lloyds of London, various multinational banks, and even oil companies. Those sources are far from liberal or even leftist.
Finally, the energy return and quantity of solar power is low, together with others:
http://theoildrum.com/node/3786
That means the world will have to continue relying heavily on fossil fuels. See the balloon graph in the link for details.
But in order to do that, we will need more energy and material resources than there are available. That’s because our ecological footprint has exceeded biocapacity:
Population is not declining worldwide. As explained in the article referred to in the OP, it will peak in 2064. The problem is that limitations have been reached even before that, as explained in my post.
Global warming problems do not involve “an extreme liberal cancel culture in [W]estern academia” but the NAS and even Berkeley Earth, which was funded by skeptics. In addition, reports on the same have been issued by the U.S. military, the Pentagon, Lloyds of London, various multinational banks, and even oil companies. Those sources are far from liberal or even leftist.
Finally, the energy return and quantity of solar power is low, together with others:
http://theoildrum.com/node/3786
That means the world will have to continue relying heavily on fossil fuels. See the balloon graph in the link for details.
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HerCrazierHalf
Guest
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jeannetherese
Guest
While it is possible, we also have men and women spending much more time in proximity of their loved ones, due to sheltering in place and working from home.
We may well see a baby boom!
We may well see a baby boom!
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Bernoulli
Guest
This is also a double-edged sword. Many couples have divorced because of sheltering in-place.
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jeannetherese
Guest
Do we have statistics showing an increase in the rate of divorce over the past 9 months?
It would be interesting to see marriage rates and divorce rates for the period.
It would be interesting to see marriage rates and divorce rates for the period.
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HerCrazierHalf
Guest
Divorce data is usually a year or two back. Preliminary days suggest a 34% spike.
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jeannetherese
Guest
Here’s something a bit more recent than the fox article which argues the contrary.
The researcher is a Sociologist at University of Virginia:
" Most married people in America report their unions have gotten stronger, not weaker, in the wake of covid-19. The AFS found that 58 percent of married men and women 18 to 55 said the pandemic has made them appreciate their spouse more, while 51 percent said their commitment to marriage had deepened. Only 8 percent said that the pandemic had weakened their commitment to one another. Other research has found “increases in fathers’ time spent on housework and child care,” a pattern that comports with Katie’s experience. Given all this, it is probably no surprise that the AFS also found the share of married people reporting their marriage is in trouble fell from 40 percent in 2019 to 29 percent in 2020.
In spite of breathless media reports of a surge, divorce appears to be down in 2020. The initial data we have from the five states that report divorce statistics in real time indicates a decline in divorce filings for 2020, with year-to-date filings down 19 percent in Florida, 13 percent in Rhode Island, 12 percent in Oregon and 9 percent in Missouri. While divorces are up 9 percent in Arizona, that increase began in late 2019, before the pandemic. Though states are returning to pre-pandemic levels of divorce, most haven’t gotten there yet."
Source:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/21/divorce-is-down-despite-covid-19/?arc404=true
The researcher is a Sociologist at University of Virginia:
" Most married people in America report their unions have gotten stronger, not weaker, in the wake of covid-19. The AFS found that 58 percent of married men and women 18 to 55 said the pandemic has made them appreciate their spouse more, while 51 percent said their commitment to marriage had deepened. Only 8 percent said that the pandemic had weakened their commitment to one another. Other research has found “increases in fathers’ time spent on housework and child care,” a pattern that comports with Katie’s experience. Given all this, it is probably no surprise that the AFS also found the share of married people reporting their marriage is in trouble fell from 40 percent in 2019 to 29 percent in 2020.
In spite of breathless media reports of a surge, divorce appears to be down in 2020. The initial data we have from the five states that report divorce statistics in real time indicates a decline in divorce filings for 2020, with year-to-date filings down 19 percent in Florida, 13 percent in Rhode Island, 12 percent in Oregon and 9 percent in Missouri. While divorces are up 9 percent in Arizona, that increase began in late 2019, before the pandemic. Though states are returning to pre-pandemic levels of divorce, most haven’t gotten there yet."
Source:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/21/divorce-is-down-despite-covid-19/?arc404=true
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HerCrazierHalf
Guest
That’s good. It’ll be interesting to see if there is a post-covid bump though. Now isn’t the time to start a separate household
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