Will there be a severe economic collapse in America?

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Depends on if you mean a collapse to something like Somalia or merely Mexico.

Somalia: unlikely.

Mexico: Unquestionably. Personally, I’m amazed it hasn’t happend YET. Who’s stupid enough to keep buying US Treasury bonds right now and how much longer are they going to stay that dumb? When those folks wise up, that’s when the collapse hits. Hard to believe anybody still thinks that the US Federal government could ever stop its runaway spending. Forget the Feds, that’s why PEOPLE are hoarding ammunition…
 
manualman said:
Depends on if you mean a collapse to something like Somalia or merely Mexico.

Somalia: unlikely.

Mexico: Unquestionably. Personally, I’m amazed it hasn’t happend YET. Who’s stupid enough to keep buying US Treasury bonds right now and how much longer are they going to stay that dumb? When those folks wise up, that’s when the collapse hits. Hard to believe anybody still thinks that the US Federal government could ever stop its runaway spending. Forget the Feds, that’s why PEOPLE are hoarding ammunition…
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Wake me up when that happens.

I’m betting the U.S. will economically decline into the equivalents of a modern day England and France.

I suspect overtime Mexico will rise to be materially more on par with the United States, United Kingdom, and France. Though that will take some time. They’ll also have to get this drug war and cartel terrorism thing under control. The smartest thing would be to legalize cocaine and turn the business over to legit corporations and businessmen like Las Vegas did with the casinos and the U.S. did with beer and alcohol. That would probably drop what is sold as U.S. $10 bags of cocaine down to $1 or even 25 cents.

But I wouldn’t hold my breath on Mexico doing the smart thing about the cocaine wars ravaging the country.
 
Monte_RCMS said:
You need to read this; it is not that long, but is exceptionally well written.

churchnewspaper.com/?p=32684

excerpt:

**
William Lind of the Free Congress Foundation commented:
“The entertainment industry has wholly absorbed the ideology of cultural Marxism and preaches it endlessly not just in sermons but in parables: strong women beating up weak men; children wiser than their parents; corrupt clergymen thwarted by carping drifters; upper class blacks confronting the violence of lower class whites; manly homosexuals who lead normal lives. It is all fable, an inversion of reality, but the entertainment industry made it seem more real than the world that lies just beyond the front door.”

Roger Kimball, writing in his own journal New Criterion, says:
“The long march through the institutions signified in the words of Marcuse, ‘working against the established institutions while working in them’. By this means – by insinuation and infiltration rather than by confrontation – the counter-cultural dreams of radicals like Marcuse have triumphed.”

Traditional Christian culture is now, in Gertude Himmelfarb’s words, only a dissident culture. A civilisation may withstand any number and severity of attacks from external enemies, but once it has adopted as its own the ideas of its enemies, no power on earth can save it. We have not been defeated, we have surrendered willingly to our destruction.

The Secular Terrorist by Peter Mullen (RoperPenberthy £9.99)**
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That last sentence is a lie. Look up the term “engineering consent.”

Peace,
Ed
 
Will America return to it’s moral, ethical and religious values??

No!? Yes!?

That is really the question-isn’t it?

Will America seek refuge in the Mantle of the Immaculate Perpetual Virgin Mother of God??

Yes? No?

Willl America pray the Rosary to our Lady of the Americas-Our Lady of Guadalupe??

Yes? No?

Gee…I guess the answer to the [economic collapse] is rather moot isn’t it.
 
I’ve heard that once the Dollar loses its status as the primary international currency, that the government will then no longer be able to simply print dollars out of thin air anymore… The priviledge of having that status is what allows us to print so much money and once we lose that status, then the party is over. At that time, the dollar will drop significantly in value, to where it actually belongs, and things will get bad here. Imagine everything costing 3 times what it already costs. Chinese currency would then fill in where the US dollar once was as the international currency of choice… The Chinese will then have the power to manipulate money on an international scale.

I read this in an article a few weeks ago.
 
TimeEntrance said:
I’m betting the U.S. will economically decline into the equivalents of a modern day England and France.
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England and France are in an artificially slowed down state of collapse. The slow motion was only possible because they were relieved of the necessity of paying for their own national security since we essentially did that for them. (As far back as the early 80’s the UK could barely defeat a third world junta in a naval battle. Had Argentina had two dozen more Exocet missles on the shelf when that war started they’d have won). They money they didn’t have to spend on military resources, they were able to spend domestically. When the USA can no longer afford its military hardware and salaries, somebody else is going to step up and control the sea lanes. And probably somebody who will use a much heavier hand serving their own interests at it. That’s not going to bode well for us, France or the UK.

In short, the UK / France model only works if there is a relatively benign superpower keeping law and order. Who do you see stepping up?
 
manualman said:
England and France are in an artificially slowed down state of collapse. The slow motion was only possible because they were relieved of the necessity of paying for their own national security since we essentially did that for them. (As far back as the early 80’s the UK could barely defeat a third world junta in a naval battle. Had Argentina had two dozen more Exocet missles on the shelf when that war started they’d have won). They money they didn’t have to spend on military resources, they were able to spend domestically. When the USA can no longer afford its military hardware and salaries, somebody else is going to step up and control the sea lanes. And probably somebody who will use a much heavier hand serving their own interests at it. That’s not going to bode well for us, France or the UK.

In short, the UK / France model only works if there is a relatively benign superpower keeping law and order. Who do you see stepping up?
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The UK and France do just fine, especially relative to most the world. So, does Australia and Japan. None of these places are going to turn into Afghanistan.

And some parts of the United States couldn’t do horrendously by turning into certain parts of Mexico. (Mexico is not one of the worst off nations in the world in terms of universities, hospitals, and infrastructure or “culture” for that matter)

sanmiguelwritersconference.wordpress.com/2011/07/18/safety-in-mexico-san-miguel-de-allende/

fallinginlovewithsanmiguel.com/faq.html

The “collapse” of the United States began in my United States many, many decades ago. Back when Obama was a child. But I was born and raised in the industrial Midwest. My grandparents generation had so many jobs you could support a large family off of one pay check on, no high school diploma needed, that they could get fired from one job and walk down the street and get another high paying blue collar job the next day. My grandfather used to drink beer on his job in the brewery, which was not unheard of back then.

If I were to listen to these boards I’d be under the assumption Detroit, Cleveland, Gary, Flint, and Milwaukee all began losing jobs for the first time a few years ago when Obama got in office. But I know better.

But I’d still rather be poor in Milwaukee than in Tijuana, Mexico or Grozny, Chechnya or Caracas, Venezuela.

If I’m American with a boat load of money I’ll take my chances in San Miguel, Mexico before I do in Gary, Indian home of the Jackson Five.

We live materially well in the United States–and France and the UK–compared to most the world. We enjoyed decades of sucking most the earth’s resources up while no one else had noting, not a pot. Now it’s come a time others in the world are grabbing more of the earth’s resources and it means there’s a little less to go around for us in the United States. We just have to accept that. It does not mean the lights will go out for everyone in the U.S.

There will still be rich people in the U.S.–just as there is in the United Kingdom and France. There will be the poor too. The numbers of the poor may increase though. 🤷
 
Mexico has some tremendous things going for it. But real freedom and just legal and economic structures are NOT among those things. The wealthy in Mexico are doing just great. But get born poor there and you’ll stay that way. That’s where we’re headed fast. Justice and security are for those rich enough to buy it in Mexico.

1950’s American prosperity was an artificial boom time resulting from the fact that we were the only industrial nation on earth that didn’t get bombed halfway back to the stone age in WWII. It was only a matter of time before the rest of the world rebuilt and became competitive again. The hard times that followed were due to the end of that artificial bubble, not political or social mistakes made in the USA.

But what’s ahead of us is different. When nobody is willing to buy US debt anymore, our armed forces will have to be put into mothballs at best. The globalized economy won’t survive if there isn’t someone out there enforcing even rules and laws. History demonstrates this pretty clearly. When the global military hegemony of the USA collapses, the world’s oceans will revert to regional power squabbles and jockeying for advantage. Iran will seize Hormuz. Egypt and Panama will use their canals not only to exploit commerce for tolls, but to punish their political enemies. Piracy will return with a vengeance (already has off Somalia). And that’s just the military implications.

What’s going to happen when Social Security check bounce? Food Stamps (or whatever they’re called this week) are no longer honored? Doctors refuse Medicaid patients? All these things WILL happen when nobody is willing to buy US bonds anymore. I call that collapse.
 
manualman said:
Mexico has some tremendous things going for it. But real freedom and just legal and economic structures are NOT among those things. The wealthy in Mexico are doing just great. But get born poor there and you’ll stay that way. That’s where we’re headed fast. Justice and security are for those rich enough to buy it in Mexico.
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Okay, I suppose you are right about that. I’ll hazard a guess there are a small number of people born in Mexico that one way or another legitimately work their way up into a middle-class lifestyle. What is considered middle-class for Mexico.

And the legal system and police in Mexico scare me. Whatever the problems with those institutions in the United States I’ll take my chances with the American system any day of the week.
1950’s American prosperity was an artificial boom time resulting from the fact that we were the only industrial nation on earth that didn’t get bombed halfway back to the stone age in WWII. It was only a matter of time before the rest of the world rebuilt and became competitive again. The hard times that followed were due to the end of that artificial bubble, not political or social mistakes made in the USA.
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I agree 100% with the highlighted part.
But what’s ahead of us is different. When nobody is willing to buy US debt anymore, our armed forces will have to be put into mothballs at best. The globalized economy won’t survive if there isn’t someone out there enforcing even rules and laws. History demonstrates this pretty clearly. When the global military hegemony of the USA collapses, the world’s oceans will revert to regional power squabbles and jockeying for advantage. Iran will seize Hormuz. Egypt and Panama will use their canals not only to exploit commerce for tolls, but to punish their political enemies. Piracy will return with a vengeance (already has off Somalia). And that’s just the military implications.
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I can’t agree or disagree with any of that. I don’t know enough about it or know enough in that area.
What’s going to happen when Social Security check bounce? Food Stamps (or whatever they’re called this week) are no longer honored? Doctors refuse Medicaid patients? All these things WILL happen when nobody is willing to buy US bonds anymore. I call that collapse.
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You have a point. However, I don’t foresee all of that coming, primarily out of my faith or staunch belief that the United States and Western Europe will in no time during my life time allow themselves to fall equal to or beneath the feet Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East.

I foresee the U.S. and Europe allowing a handful of nation-states like Brazil, Mexico, and India come join them at the table of plenty before that happens.

I just think economics, while built on logical premises, is a socially constructed phenomena that is very plastic, and meant to be plastic so the rich and powerful can always bend and reshape economic principles and systems to maintain their basic positions from one age to the next. Short of being overthrown with arms.

We go from gold reserves backing the dollar to global faith in the U.S. Government to back the dollar. When faith in the U.S. Government is no longer a sufficient principle the U.S. and Western Europe will change to some other principle to maintain the status quo. Maybe it will be “full faith in the full might and resiliency of corporate America and the people of the United States,” to back the U.S. dollar. I don’t know. But I’m sure someone will come up with something.

What I think is likely to happen is a bubble bursting in China and another global recession returning. But at some point much of the world will come out of that too.

The collapse of the United States and Europe into some neo-dark ages is a prediction that returns every 5 or 10 years kind of like the frequent predictions of the world coming to an end. Neither ever happen.
 
TimeEntrance said:
The collapse of the United States and Europe into some neo-dark ages is a prediction that returns every 5 or 10 years kind of like the frequent predictions of the world coming to an end. Neither ever happen.
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This attitude is why it WILL happen. Think about it. This is why dot-com idiocy happened. This is why the housing bust happened. This is why the Japanese achieved total surprise at Pearl Harbor. It is precisely when everybody KNOWS that something could never happen that it really can, because that’s when people make stupidly complacent assumptions (like adding trillions to the debt every year).

It all comes down to this simple question: What’s going to happen when nobody is dumb enough to buy US Treasury bonds anymore? Are you really arguing that we can go to 17, 20, 25 trillion in debt and it still won’t matter? The longer it takes for the collapse to come, the worse it will be when it gets here.
 
Yes, there certainly will be. It is not a matter of IF, it is a matter of WHEN. All fiat currency systems fail by hyper inflation at some point or another. To get a really good understanding of monopoly money and its inevitable failure as an monetary system, please, please read “The Creature Form Jekyll Island” by G. Edward Griffin. A brief summation: The US Government unlawfully permitted the creation of the privately-owned Federal Reserve System so that they, the rogue government, could have direct access to funds to be used at will without having to resort to the lawful (which is to say constitutional) system of taxation. The 2 entities exchange bonds for bills, as it were, with the bonds (requests for money not backed by anything of intrinsic value like gold or silver or cattle or diamonds) being loans to be repaid to the Federal Reserve with interest. With this fake money, now the so-called government can spend away on all manner of non-constitutional, vote-buying projects without much disturbing your sleep. Of course, they had to pass a law to make you and your grocery store accept these worthless debt instruments known as “dollars” because, otherwise, you wouldn’t. Just as you wouldn’t accept greeting cards as payment for your time and labor, neither would you naturally accept Federal Reserve Notes. The joke is on us, man. We give real time, sweat, blood and tears to own property, buy or grow food and raise children, and in return, all we get is monopoly money that is useful only to the extent that our pool of trading partners think they can be redeemed for the things they need, too.

Problem is, in order for this system to work, first, you have to be fooled, second, they have to keep printing monopoly money in ever increasing amounts because if you borrow 10 dollars and have to pay back 11 dollars, where does that other dollar come from? You got it, the printing press. Eventually, there will be (already are) so many fake dollars in circulation chasing the same amount of goods, that all prices will have to rise in order to keep a semblance of balance. At some point, this program heats up fast and becomes hyper inflation where no amount of fake dollars can buy what you need. Witness Zimbabwe for the latest example.

Despite what you’ve been told all your life, you ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE for the “national debt.” If you want to give Federal Reserve Notes back the the Federal Reserve so that inflation doesn’t spiral out of control too soon, well, they set up the private collection agency, called the Internal Revenue Service, so you can do just that.

And that’s enough this time around. Go get “The Creature” and see for yourself what must happen in the economy at some point in time.
 
manualman said:
This attitude is why it WILL happen. Think about it. This is why dot-com idiocy happened. This is why the housing bust happened. This is why the Japanese achieved total surprise at Pearl Harbor. It is precisely when everybody KNOWS that something could never happen that it really can, because that’s when people make stupidly complacent assumptions (like adding trillions to the debt every year).

It all comes down to this simple question: What’s going to happen when nobody is dumb enough to buy US Treasury bonds anymore? Are you really arguing that we can go to 17, 20, 25 trillion in debt and it still won’t matter? The longer it takes for the collapse to come, the worse it will be when it gets here.
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Manual, you are right that there has to be a debt limit. What that limit is I’m not sure. That’s above my figurative “pay grade.”

But I really don’t think the U.S. economic situation will become that dire. Relative to most the worlds that is.

What I think is the U.S. is in its last days of empire. But the curtains must close for every empire at some point.

But that’s not the same thing as the U.S. turning into a Third World nation.

But if the U.S. did “collapse” then it I guess it just will. Nothing I can do about it. Wisdom dictates the best thing is either for me not to be here when it happens or to leave when it does. Assuming I can.

That’s kind of my feeling about the end of the world too. If it happens then I guess it just does.

I have an uncle that thought the world was coming to an end. I think on that day that recent guy had predicted. So, he wanted to go to Hawaii or some island or something when it came. But if the world is going to end what is me going to Hawaii going to do about it? Nothing. And likewise… if the U.S. economy is going to collapse then what is me worrying about it going to do? Nothing.

I have to die some day anyways. “Nothing last forever,” that’s what the young Mexican woman that cuts my hair told me. Except she was responding to my complaints about my hair loss on the back top of my head :D. Works for the economy too.
 
Linda_June said:
Yes, there certainly will be. It is not a matter of IF, it is a matter of WHEN. All fiat currency systems fail by hyper inflation at some point or another. To get a really good understanding of monopoly money and its inevitable failure as an monetary system, please, please read “The Creature Form Jekyll Island” by G. Edward Griffin. A brief summation: The US Government unlawfully permitted the creation of the privately-owned Federal Reserve System so that they, the rogue government, could have direct access to funds to be used at will without having to resort to the lawful (which is to say constitutional) system of taxation. The 2 entities exchange bonds for bills, as it were, with the bonds (requests for money not backed by anything of intrinsic value like gold or silver or cattle or diamonds) being loans to be repaid to the Federal Reserve with interest. With this fake money, now the so-called government can spend away on all manner of non-constitutional, vote-buying projects without much disturbing your sleep. Of course, they had to pass a law to make you and your grocery store accept these worthless debt instruments known as “dollars” because, otherwise, you wouldn’t. Just as you wouldn’t accept greeting cards as payment for your time and labor, neither would you naturally accept Federal Reserve Notes. The joke is on us, man. We give real time, sweat, blood and tears to own property, buy or grow food and raise children, and in return, all we get is monopoly money that is useful only to the extent that our pool of trading partners think they can be redeemed for the things they need, too.

Problem is, in order for this system to work, first, you have to be fooled, second, they have to keep printing monopoly money in ever increasing amounts because if you borrow 10 dollars and have to pay back 11 dollars, where does that other dollar come from? You got it, the printing press. Eventually, there will be (already are) so many fake dollars in circulation chasing the same amount of goods, that all prices will have to rise in order to keep a semblance of balance. At some point, this program heats up fast and becomes hyper inflation where no amount of fake dollars can buy what you need. Witness Zimbabwe for the latest example.

Despite what you’ve been told all your life, you ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE for the “national debt.” If you want to give Federal Reserve Notes back the the Federal Reserve so that inflation doesn’t spiral out of control too soon, well, they set up the private collection agency, called the Internal Revenue Service, so you can do just that.

And that’s enough this time around. Go get “The Creature” and see for yourself what must happen in the economy at some point in time.
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:clapping:

Wisdom has entered the house. Someone who understands.

Private central banks worldwide are building a hidden empire. You tell people this and they just stare at you like you are crazy, not bothering to check the facts. They live in a world where all the smiling government people and billionaires can never lie or cheat–if you question this you are a “conspiracy theorist” because conspired world domination can “only happen in movies”.
 
There already is a severe economic collapse, but we are being lied to.

We know that millions have left the labor market and have stopped looking for work. We know that youth unemployment is high (just out of college) and city centers like Detroit have closer to 20% unemployment.

The only reason why we haven’t hit bottom is because the government is trying to prevent mass panic w/in the population - so they keep trying to prop up a failing system by printing more money (making our dollar worth less and less).

Add in the fact that we keep borrowing money and spending more than we have…I’m not very optimistic about the future.

There has been severe reluctance by the political class to prosecute Wall Street for crimes relating to mortgage fraud and selling the CDO’s. A lot of politicos don’t want to touch this issue because they know who finances their campaigns. Money from Wall Street. (And we are talking BOTH PARTIES, not one or the other).

We can talk all we want about more regulation being in place since the Great Depression; however, that didn’t stop people from creating and selling financial products that they knew relatively nothing about to unsuspecting people. They sold these products because they made the company (and themselves) lots and lots of money and they didn’t care about the consequences to their consumers.

As a reasonable person, I have no reason to believe that their behavior has stopped, especially since there have been very few prosecutions of people who committed this fraud. The culture of Wall Street really hasn’t changed. They may not be selling CDO’s anymore, but I can’t help but think they are sitting back and bidding their time, while they figure out how to start the gravy train again.

You can regulate all you want, but criminals will always find a way to beat the system.
 
Linda_June said:
Yes, there certainly will be. It is not a matter of IF, it is a matter of WHEN. All fiat currency systems fail by hyper inflation at some point or another. …
The 2 entities exchange bonds for bills, as it were, with the bonds (requests for money not backed by anything of intrinsic value like gold or silver or cattle or diamonds) being loans to be repaid to the Federal Reserve with interest.
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There’s a problem with this narrative. In what way does shiny yellow metal have any more innate value than paper with green printing on it. Underneath the hype, both are fiat money. What the US government did in creating the Fed was to pull the rug out from under the mining conglomerates who had suckered the world into believing that there was something of galactically unique value in their yellow metal and get people to believe in the green paper instead.

The collapse isn’t coming because of fiat money, it’s coming because of the negligently profligate spending of said fiat money beyond the means of our nation to actually repay.
 
manualman said:
There’s a problem with this narrative. In what way does shiny yellow metal have any more innate value than paper with green printing on it. Underneath the hype, both are fiat money. What the US government did in creating the Fed was to pull the rug out from under the mining conglomerates who had suckered the world into believing that there was something of galactically unique value in their yellow metal and get people to believe in the green paper instead.

The collapse isn’t coming because of fiat money, it’s coming because of the negligently profligate spending of said fiat money beyond the means of our nation to actually repay.
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Thank you, that is at least one other thing we agree on.

Although, I didn’t realize or suspect the mining industry of gold to have had a vested interest in gold being the fundamental, primary source of money in the world.

Money can come in any for human beings would be willing to agree upon and accept. So, it could come in the form of carved wood chips, or animal flesh. But one attribute of money most societies seek to have for their currency is a “store of value.” Something that does not root, spoil, deteriorate over the course of time. That makes wood chips in our example more favorable to use as currency than animal flesh.

Gold has a store of value but so does paper fiat money. The latter is easier to carry around. The U.S. Government would actually prefer to go to paperless money. This would save more trees or plants and be less expensive in terms of production of currency. We already have debit cards and credit cards today. The U.S. Government’s preference would be everyone being paid by their employers electronically. And one day this may occur. It has it’s down sides of course. This does not predict a great future for those in all cash businesses in underground economies like drug dealing and prostitution in which one can labor and survive basically off the grid in terms of income. This also makes ones savings more vulnerable to attacks. You can always hide $60,000 in a box in your basement floor. You can’t do that with numerical digits posted on a computer screen.

The Fed has its benefits and costs to society as well. A private Central Bank at that. There are downsides to a Central Bank owned by a government of a nation. Just as there are downsides to a government owning all the major businesses in its country.

I have no issue with fiat money as of this time. It has served me well. I live far better in the United States than rural peasants in Ethiopia that primarily farm just to survive and barter as a form of transaction rather than use fiat paper money. If I want pork chops I can just go into the store with paper money backed by the full weight and confidence in the U.S. Government. Pretty wonderful life compared to some of the alternatives in the world.
 
Kal2012 said:
. . . . We can talk all we want about more regulation being in place since the Great Depression; however, that didn’t stop people from creating and selling financial products that they knew relatively nothing about to unsuspecting people. They sold these products because they made the company (and themselves) lots and lots of money and they didn’t care about the consequences to their consumers.
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Well yes, a great man CDO’s were exceedingly bad investments. Yet they were hardly sold to “unsuspecting” people, unless you count big financial giants like AIG as unsuspecting. Everybody had the same information, but some made bad decisions about whether or how long the housing boom could be expected to last (including individuals who made money from repeatedly refinancing their homes at increasing valuations.)
 
We already did experience a severe economic collapse. We are now in the midst of recovering from it.

We are not on our way to becoming the UK, France or a destroyed nation like Greece. We are going to be a faster-growing version of Japan.

Financial crises are generally followed by periods of prolonged slow growth. It’s inexorable. It took a long time for consumers to lever up and so it will take a long time for the balance sheets to heal.

The good news is that our debt-to-GDP ratio is actually falling. Not the government debt-to-GDP ratio but the OVERALL ratio. The ratio that really matters. The one when you plug in private sector debt too. The private sector was way, way more levered than our government ever has been. Even in World War II.

The bad news is that since we’re deleveraging, there’s no pent-up demand as one usually sees following a recession. Government can only go so far to make up the gap before it encounters problems of its own.

So expect another decade of uneven and historically slow growth. Something on the order of moderately better than Japan. What’s good for the long term, however, is that we have a lot of natural resources, domestic investors willing to buy something other than government bonds, the second-largest economy (China) wholly dependent on our consumers and we have something Japan does not. Fertility. Yes, our fertility rate is falling but immigration is still making up for it.

Honestly, at a certain point our insistence in staying at or slightly above replacement rate fertility is going to give us a huge advantage over other first-world countries. Mark my words.
 
Bucket, I’m with you 100% on the fertility advantage, but it’s still falling, even among immigrants now.

I don’t agree that the collapse is behind us. That was only the private sector collapse and those just happen periodically. Always have. The public sector collapse is yet before us and will arrive when people just won’t buy those bonds anymore, don’t you think?
 
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