Will there be a severe economic collapse in America?

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As pointed out on another thread, there is a $2 trillion underground economy. Which helps.

And there is a totally private sector natural gas economy using shale natural gas [as well as North Dakota shale oil].

So, maybe, just maybe, we will avoid a severe economic collapse.

The problem is that the government sector with tens of thousands of new pages of rules and regulations is tying up the national economy into knots.

Will the country be able to overcome the enormous impact of Federal micromanagement?

Just now, we see how the FAA is crippling the air traffic control system / airline system by reducing the effective head count of air traffic controllers, although they have a huge number of people at their Washington DC headquarters who could take some of the sequester burden … instead of putting the burden onto the operations people.
 
The_Bucket said:
We already did experience a severe economic collapse. We are now in the midst of recovering from it.

We are not on our way to becoming the UK, France or a destroyed nation like Greece. We are going to be a faster-growing version of Japan.

Financial crises are generally followed by periods of prolonged slow growth. It’s inexorable. It took a long time for consumers to lever up and so it will take a long time for the balance sheets to heal.

The good news is that our debt-to-GDP ratio is actually falling. Not the government debt-to-GDP ratio but the OVERALL ratio. The ratio that really matters. The one when you plug in private sector debt too. The private sector was way, way more levered than our government ever has been. Even in World War II.

The bad news is that since we’re deleveraging, there’s no pent-up demand as one usually sees following a recession. Government can only go so far to make up the gap before it encounters problems of its own.

So expect another decade of uneven and historically slow growth. Something on the order of moderately better than Japan. What’s good for the long term, however, is that we have a lot of natural resources, domestic investors willing to buy something other than government bonds, the second-largest economy (China) wholly dependent on our consumers and we have something Japan does not. Fertility. Yes, our fertility rate is falling but immigration is still making up for it.

Honestly, at a certain point our insistence in staying at or slightly above replacement rate fertility is going to give us a huge advantage over other first-world countries. Mark my words.
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I agree with every thing you said above.

I do, however, have another concern, and you touched on it. People have a way of adapting to “normals”. Sometimes those “normals” can be pretty bad. It has been almost five years now that we have had a “normal” high unemployment rate. People adapt to that in a lot of ways. Those who hire adapt to being very slow to hire. Those who are off work for extended periods of time adapt to unemployment by various means. My grandfather, who lived through the Depression talked about that. Unemployment was high, but it’s high now but not accurately recognized. All the same, there were plenty of peole back then who had jobs, but they were more conservative in what they did than they were before the Depression. Some people were even better off during the Depression than they were before or after. They bought what they wanted, but still on a different scale. After awhile, all of that became the “normal”.

It’s hard to get people to turn around once they have adapted to a “new normal”. Businesses learn to do with fewer people and less ambitious investment. People who can’t get jobs sometimes find ways to get on Social Security Disability. The latter has massively expanded in the last few years. In my state, the state government actually hired a firm to go through its welfare rolls and try to shift as many of them as possible to SSD. Once people go on that, they rarely get back off.

Finally, I see where the CBO estimated that Obamacare alone would knock 1.4% off the GDP once it’s in full effect. That’s not going to go away, and it might be a bigger problem than that.
 
No. Check out this video (and others) with George Friedman of Stratfor (who I personally think is brilliant):

youtube.com/watch?v=WBjWmUPYoow
  1. The US economy is larger than that of the next four largest economies combined.
  2. The US has two coasts and navigable rivers, which allow for cheap trade through boat transport with the West and the East.
  3. The US has a large land area in a mostly temperate region, so agriculture is profitable.
  4. The Anglo-American concept of citizenship (whoever agrees to certain citizenship principles, regardless of blood) makes it easier for people to be US citizens, allowing the US to continue growing in population (albeit through immigration).
 
Traditionally, U.S. immigration policy has encouraged smart, innovative, risk-taking people to come here.

Now, not so much, … the Boston Bomber people are classic cases of who we don’t want to encourage.

Interesting BookTV discussion on “Ninja Innovation” by Gary Shapiro. The Q&A is especially interesting, particularly toward the end when he started to get tired and departed from political correctness.

While his business involves consumer electronics, his talk is about the economy as a whole and the role of innovation in keeping the economy energized and the role of immigration [OR, rather of what immigration SHOULD be and has been versus what it has become.]

Worth the time to listen.

click & watch the program:

booktv.org/Program/14449/Ninja+Innovation+The+Ten+Killer+Strategies+of+the+Worlds+Most+Successful+Businesses.aspx

Ninja+Innovation+The+Ten+Killer+Strategies+of+the+Worlds+Most+Successful+
Businesses

Mr. Shapiro is also the author of “The Comeback: How Innovation Will Restore the American Dream.” [unless government micro-management derails the innovators.]
 
I think the best things for The United States of America are yet to come. Actually, Pres George Bush said that in his speech at the opening of his library-and I agree!
 
Read this book:

Coolidge [Hardcover]
Amity Shlaes (Author)
4.1 out of 5 stars See all reviews (135 customer reviews)

President Coolidge got rid of a recession without Federal micromanagement.

AND, he did it quickly. The economy recovered quickly.
 
Question : Will There be a severe economic collapse in America. ?
Code: 
Um......... I think it has been happening since the 60's
What makes me think that you might ask ?

Well compare the cities and towns in America & compare them to Cities & towns elsewhere

Like in Europe and Korea, Japan,China… there Infrastructure is more advanced…

Check it out for yourselves, you don’t even need to travel there to see google it…

Question : Why has U.S debt been allowed to get so far out of control ?

Yes I know Debt cannot be avoided, but really… Should it be that big ?

Check out www.nationaldebtclock.org

My point is, it aint a new problem…
 
Phil_Marinus said:
Question : Will There be a severe economic collapse in America. ?
Code: 
Um......... I think it has been happening since the 60's
What makes me think that you might ask ?

Well compare the cities and towns in America & compare them to Cities & towns elsewhere

Like in Europe and Korea, Japan,China… there Infrastructure is more advanced…

Check it out for yourselves, you don’t even need to travel there to see google it…

Question : Why has U.S debt been allowed to get so far out of control ?

Yes I know Debt cannot be avoided, but really… Should it be that big ?

Check out www.nationaldebtclock.org

My point is, it aint a new problem…
Click to expand...
Why is infrastructure more advanced in Europe, Korea, Japan and China than in the United States?

**Because during World War II and the Korean War, the infrastructure of Europe, Korea, Japan and China was totally pulverized and destroyed.

After World War II and the Korean War, the United States rebuilt Europe, SOUTH Korea and Japan through the Marshall Plan and other aid programs.

North Korea is still living in the stone age, by the way.
**

Because distances between major cities of Europe are very short compared with the distances between major cities of the United States … as a result, it was easy for them to build meaningful high speed rail, for example. Because all their bridges were destroyed in the fighting, they had to innovate with new designs to get new bridges built quickly … and not all that quickly … it took almost 50 years.

Because the United States generally follows the principle of “subsidiarity” … local control … following the Constitution. Localities are responsible for their own infrastructure. Some are responsible about it. Some are not. Some infrastructure is built and maintained by toll agencies; and those facilities tend to be in outstanding condition. So-called “free” infrastructure tend to be decrepit because “no one” is in charge of them and no one takes responsibility.

China received vast amounts of American money which they used toward infrastructure, although they are still way behind … China has a major smog problem … but then they have a Communist government which cares nothing about their people.

Apart from a few “showcase” projects, though, China’s infrastructure is not that well advanced. Just read up on the horror stories coming out of China.

Read “The Black Book of Communism”.

China is a totalitarian state; they are heavily investing in facial recognition software to allow them to scan everyone at all times and keep their people under control.

Why is the Federal Government debt out of control?

**Because we allow the government to lie to us.

finance.townhall.com/columnists/charlespayne/2013/05/02/are-we-believing-lies-n1584669/page/full/

Because some people enjoy getting “free stuff” from the government.

But there is no free lunch.**

In fact, here is a video with Milton Friedman, arguably the best recent economist, discussing “There is no such thing as a free lunch”

youtube.com/watch?v=YmqoCHR14n8

And along the edge of the screen are several other brief videos on the same subject.

Friedman also wrote an outstanding book on the subject; not thick, but very readable.

Google " Friedman free lunch "
 
Thank you monte… good reply… it’s a situation that can’t really do itself justice in a forum… it’s something that must be talked about and explained… I had seen Documentaries
on this issue and seems convincing ,
 
Phil_Marinus said:
Thank you monte… good reply… it’s a situation that can’t really do itself justice in a forum… it’s something that must be talked about and explained… I had seen Documentaries
on this issue and seems convincing ,
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The United States is the ONLY country in the world that, after winning a war, rebuilds the countries that were destroyed.
 
Monte_RCMS said:
The United States is the ONLY country in the world that, after winning a war, rebuilds the countries that were destroyed.
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Yes true…
lucky your not getting involved in syria… that is a real Quagmire…
Code: 
not being a historian myself.... I can only think of one war in modern times the u.s
should have not got to involved in… that one was an enormous waste…
 
Phil_Marinus said:
Yes true…
lucky your not getting involved in syria… that is a real Quagmire…
Code: 
not being a historian myself.... I can only think of one war in modern times the u.s
should have not got to involved in… that one was an enormous waste…
Click to expand...
World War I

Spanish-American War

Libyan War [last year]

Kosovo - Bosnia

Syrian War [next month]

[actually, there might be several more, as well]

World War II in the Pacific … read “Operation Snow” by John Koster … how the U.S. got manipulated into goading Japan into attacking the United States … to prevent the Soviet Union from having to fight Germany and Japan at the same time in a two-front war.

For YEARS, the Brits have had an extremely effective intelligence operation in the United States … based at 30 Rockefeller Plaza … intended to get the United States to enter various wars on the side of the British. The War of 1812 was fought AGAINST the British and they fought against the North in the U.S. Civil War … 1860-65 … etc … so logically, the U.S. should have been on the side of Germany in WWI. But the Brits handled the Zimmerman Telegram so incredibly skillfully … it was amazing. By contrast, the Germans were exceptionally clumsy.

If this stuff is of interest, and it should be, get a subscription to a British magazine … “EyeSpy” … they blab everything. www.eyespymag.com
 
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