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canadianguy1143
Guest
I highlighted the above text because I want to discuss that in greater detail. Throughout the last century we have seen some drastic changes. Look at how WW2 changed the number of jews living in the world. Feminism, in its current form, took off during the 60s and 70s and that was a dramatic change. Look at how fast abortion was legalized.Aramis,
You say… “But if you go around saying “DOOM DOOM DOOM!” you will cause others to believe it, and to despair.”
My prediction is based on demographics. If you look at the UK census over the last decades, it shows religious numbers (both Catholic and COE) decreasing at a steady rate. This can be applied over the last 80 years or so. The catholic church in 1901, 1941 and today are very different beasts.
So as you say, it is a prediction - but one that is backed up by a steady datastream over a long timescale. For my prediction to be held void, a steady demographic change that has occurred throughout the 20th century has to be undone - and,importantly, *rapidly *.
**The problem is, it is a given principle of forecasting that large scale economic or demographic change, hardly ever happens very fast. If you read the newspapers, this is what we get all the time - big dramatic events are always going to happen tomorrow. Well, they wont. For example, Feminism was not an overnight success - it began in the early 1900s and still progresses today.
**
So, Aramis - I am making a prediction, but I dont believe it is one of “doom”. I believe over the next decades the “powerbase” of the Church will change away from Western Europe towards South America, Africa and Asia, where the majority of believers will be.
This is not doom. But it is serious for anyone that expects the Catholic Church to have any impact on government policy in Europe. It wont.
Instead it appears that the Church in Europe is going to become a much more conservative, far older (on average) organisation.