A third of the world now faces deadly heatwaves as result of climate change

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…nor does it contradict the theory.

How could we possible establish that claim unless someone compiles a list of AGW claims that have come true? You can’t claim that A > B just by showing that A is a “whopping big number” which is essentially what the list of failed predictions attempts to do.
And isn’t it the responsibility of the AGW scientific community to compile such a list, i.e., aren’t observations of the real world in conjunction with the predictions made supposed to be taken into consideration and monitored.

For the purposes of substantiating said claims and theory.
 
The failed ones contradict it and the others do not support it, need I say more.
Yes, because the number of truly failed predictions was at the heart of your claim. Saying that “some” of them have failed does not tell us if that number is so high that it discredits the whole theory.
Someone compiled a list for failed climate predictions, so why not one for those that have come true?
How do you know no such list exists? Just because I am too lazy to go looking for it? Don’t take my laziness as proof that AGW is a fraud.
 
And isn’t it the responsibility of the AGW scientific community to compile such a list, i.e., aren’t observations of the real world in conjunction with the predictions made supposed to be taken into consideration and monitored.

For the purposes of substantiating said claims and theory.
First, I disagree that there is any such thing as an AGW scientific community. There are climate scientists, and many of them have concluded the AGW is real. But they do not form a community that supersedes their role as scientists.

And yes, there is confirmation of theories embedded in their scholarly papers. But they are not gathered all together. They confirm only the claim that is the narrow subject of the specific paper. There is no one who is charged with the responsibility of rallying the public, except some self-appointed advocates, like Al Gore and others for the pro side and Anthony Watts and others for the anti side. Hopefully a true scientist tries to stay away from such “communities.”
 
The graph readily shows how satellite measurement correlates with direct measurement by weather balloons. They are in agreement it appears. Adjustments to calibrate satellite measurements are well understood, and fairly minor as compared to what has been done to specific surface stations.

I’m not qualified to explain how the model measurements are averaged, but I provided a link. It is the generally agreed approach that reduces the anomalies which might appear from a single model.

You are projecting in your last paragraph. CAGW skepicts have always suggested actual warming will end up in the lower range of the IPCC estimates. I myself have never suggested otherwise in these threads. Please don’t battle strawmen by insinuating we are disputing any impact from higher CO2 levels.
Thank you for the link. It works now.

As I recall, we were trying to establish how model simulations are averaged and, more importantly, why the comparison graph omits the surface temperature readings.

I don’t think I can honestly judge if the scientific details discussed in that link are valid, because I am not a climate scientist. But I do know that calibrating satellite readings to measure air temperature from miles away has its own set of problems, which the article does not mention - although it does take the time to mention problems associated with surface temperature readings. That omission is troubling for a “scientific” report.

Regardless of everything else in that article, the article does say:
*
“Since 2011, at lleast 14 studies published in the peer-reviewed scientific literature provide strong evidence that the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)—how much the earth’s average surface temperature will rise under a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration—lies near the low end of the IPCC estimates”*

That sounds like an admission that the IPCC estimates, which are based on those pesky totally failed models, include a range that overlaps with reality - albeit at the low end of the IPCC estimates. This is a far cry from claiming “the models have totally and utterly failed.” So it seems that your supporting references are not taking quite as strong a position as that which is taken by you, Poptech, and josie.
 
The graph readily shows how satellite measurement correlates with direct measurement by weather balloons. They are in agreement it appears. Adjustments to calibrate satellite measurements are well understood, and fairly minor as compared to what has been done to specific surface stations.
Do you personally understand how to translate reflected and radiated light readings from air that is mostly transparent into temperature readings at various altitudes? How does a satellite discriminate between light from air at 5000 feet and light from air at 12,000 feet? I think I would have an easier time understanding the corrections used to calibrate surface readings. But then, that is just my opinion.
You are projecting in your last paragraph. CAGW skepicts have always suggested actual warming will end up in the lower range of the IPCC estimates.
Well, good for them! I’m not trying to discredit them.
I myself have never suggested otherwise in these threads. Please don’t battle strawmen by insinuating we are disputing any impact from higher CO2 levels.
“We” is an ambiguous term. I know that you have frequently claimed a more moderate criticism of AGW than the positions I have been arguing with put forth by Poptech, for example. So I am not painting all AGW critics the same. I am trying to respond to positions rather than to** persons**. I am not always successful at that, but that is my intention. I would not mind your reminding me when I fail at that.
 
And isn’t it the responsibility of the AGW scientific community to compile such a list, i.e., aren’t observations of the real world in conjunction with the predictions made supposed to be taken into consideration and monitored.

For the purposes of substantiating said claims and theory.
Actually real observations pretty much come close to the projections of global warming on the whole and within the margin of error (only falling out of that for a year here and there – either under or over-estimating the warming).

Considering the complexity of earth systems and the several factors that impact climate short-term, the scientists have done a super job.

The denialist industry claims are just dead wrong, amounting to lying and wanton deception, based on their various agenda – financial, ideological…
 
Oh, I’m not making that wholesale assumption, however, I am predicating this on the many many many failed climate predictions: There are just 107 failed climate predictions indicated on this blog/website alone (as of 2014).
:confused:
It is not the least bit clear why you claim the predictions that you list have failed - aside from having read something that claim on some website.

Take, for example, this one:
The ski areas that reliably have snow will shift from 1200 meters to 1500 meters elevation by the year 2050; because of the climate prognoses warmer winters have to be anticipated.”
How on earth can you possibly claim that this is a failed prediction?

Ca you please explain you criteria of failure, and the data that you use to support your claim of failure. I am especially interested in the supporting data. Especially for items that would require to have gathered data from the future.
 
Actually real observations pretty much come close to the projections of global warming on the whole and within the margin of error (only falling out of that for a year here and there – either under or over-estimating the warming).

Considering the complexity of earth systems and the several factors that impact climate short-term, the scientists have done a super job.

The denialist industry claims are just dead wrong, amounting to lying and wanton deception, based on their various agenda – financial, ideological…
Here are the actual observations of warming, year to year with a 5 year running mean.

(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)

Here are some graphs showing computer model projections A. with only natural forcings (no human GHG forcings), B. with only anthropogenic forcings, and C. with natural and anthropogenic forcings. You can see in the latter that the projections are pretty close to the actual observations, sometimes falling below, sometimes falling above. That’s better than stock market projections 🙂

https://skepticalscience.com/images/IPCC_model_vs_obs.gif
 
Oh, I’m not making that wholesale assumption, however, I am predicating this on the many many many failed climate predictions:

There are just 107 failed climate predictions indicated on this blog/website alone (as of 2014).
Note that real climate science computer modelers do not talk about success or failure, but “skill” - as in how skilled the model is. That’s because no computer model perfectly matches reality.

I remember when I took economics the professor started the course by throwing a balsa wood model airplane over our heads.

He explained that was not a real airplane, but a model of an airplane, and that in economics they worked with models. He pointed out that the model plane did work, at least for a while.

As for climate modeling, they have been able to continuously improve their models over the years as computer power has increased and as more knowledge about the various factors have increased. They then “tweak” the models to reflect reality better. It’s an arduous job. They come up with a model (or improvement to a model), then they shoot it back in time over past real observations to see how well it does with those. If it does well, then they shoot it into the future.

We cannot expect them to be God and make exact projections. That would be asking way too much. We can instead applaud them for creating better skilled models over the years.

Aside from computer modeling, climate science is also based on actual evidence, including current observations of actual warming, the GH effect theory (which has been well established for nearly 2 centuries), laws of physics, and paleoclimatology of past warmings – see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoclimatology .

It seems you are interested in the field, and it is very fascinating and there are plenty of good sources on it for whatever level you are at.

But beware of materials put out there by the denial industry, which are proliferating around the internet and in bookstores, even given to schools and churches, purposely created so as to deceive people.

It may be a good idea to pray that God lead you to the right and honest materials.
 
When audited by whom? That independent agency called surfacestations.org ?
Clearly you didn’t read the information contained on www.surfacestations.org

Read it.

It debunks the quality of information derived from surface stations owing to heat sources close to the instruments.

These surface stations tend to be at airports where the accuracy is adequate for flight safety but was not intended for long term scientific studies.

However, the satellite measurements ARE designed for scientific studies and as a result their data are more reliable than surface measurements.

Read the background contained in www.surfacestations.org
 
First, I disagree that there is any such thing as an AGW scientific community. There are climate scientists, and many of them have concluded the AGW is real. But they do not form a community that supersedes their role as scientists.

And yes, there is confirmation of theories embedded in their scholarly papers. But they are not gathered all together. They confirm only the claim that is the narrow subject of the specific paper. There is no one who is charged with the responsibility of rallying the public, except some self-appointed advocates, like Al Gore and others for the pro side and Anthony Watts and others for the anti side. Hopefully a true scientist tries to stay away from such “communities.”
CLEARLY Al Gore has zero credibility. His film has been debunked and he has been ordered to accompany it with a laundry list of corrections. He sort of didn’t invent the internet. He sold a television network to Al Jezira.

On the other hand, Anthony Watts has an earned credibility and sponsors a substantial blog/website.

wattsupwiththat.com/about-wuwt/faqs/

I posted how one of the top financial investors in the world had nothing but contempt for Al Gore. I think my post got deleted … it was somewhat harsh. Not my words. Nevertheless, Al Gore cannot be relied upon for anything in the debate regarding man made global warming/ climate change.
 
Clearly you didn’t read the information contained on www.surfacestations.org

Read it.
As I hinted before, I am exceptionally lazy. If you tell me exactly which paragraph supports your claim, I will read that. It would be very remarkable if the surface readings were uniformly 5 degrees too high. And how do you know that these errors were ignored?

Satellite measurements may have been designed with science in mind, but that doesn’t change the fact that it is extraordinarily difficult to measure air temperature from light, and especially to discriminate between light from 5000 feet and light from 12000 feet. Yet they claim to do that with ease. It looks to me like that graph is showing only what is convenient for the anti-GW point.
 
CLEARLY Al Gore has zero credibility. His film has been debunked and he has been ordered to accompany it with a laundry list of corrections. He sort of invented the internet. He sold a television network to Al Jezira.

On the other hand, Anthony Watts has an earned credibility and sponsors a substantial blog/website.

wattsupwiththat.com/about-wuwt/faqs/

I posted how one of the top financial investors in the world had nothing but contempt for Al Gore. I think my post got deleted … it was somewhat harsh. Not my words. Nevertheless, Al Gore cannot be relied upon for anything in the debate regarding man made global warming/ climate change.
Neither one of them have a reputation for open-mindedness. They both have an agenda.
 
As I hinted before, I am exceptionally lazy. If you tell me exactly which paragraph supports your claim, I will read that. It would be very remarkable if the surface readings were uniformly 5 degrees too high. And how do you know that these errors were ignored?

Satellite measurements may have been designed with science in mind, but that doesn’t change the fact that it is extraordinarily difficult to measure air temperature from light, and especially to discriminate between light from 5000 feet and light from 12000 feet. Yet they claim to do that with ease. It looks to me like that graph is showing only what is convenient for the anti-GW point.
Go here:

wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/surfacestationsreport_spring09.pdf

If you are only willing to read a little bit, then here is the executive summary:

By Anthony Watts SurfaceStations.org
Anthony Watts

Global warming is one of the most serious issues of our times. Some experts claim the rise in temperature during the past century was “unprecedented” and proof that immediate action to reduce human greenhouse gas emissions must begin. Other experts say the warming was very modest and the case for action has yet to be made.

The reliability of data used to document temperature trends is of great importance in this debate.

We can’t know for sure if global warming is a problem if we can’t trust the data.

The official record of temperatures in the continental United States comes from a network of 1,221 climate-monitoring stations overseen by the National Weather Service, a department of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Until now, no one had ever conducted a comprehensive review of the quality of the measurement environment of those stations.

During the past few years I recruited a team of more than 650 volunteers to visually inspect and photographically document more than 860 of these temperature stations. We were shocked by what we found.

We found stations located next to the exhaust fans of air conditioning units, surrounded by asphalt parking lots and roads, on blistering-hot rooftops, and near sidewalks and buildings that absorb and radiate heat. We found 68 stations located at wastewater treatment plants, where the process of waste digestion causes temperatures to be higher than in surrounding areas.

In fact, we found that 89 percent of the stations – nearly 9 of every 10 – fail to meet the National Weather Service’s own siting requirements that stations must be 30 meters (about 100 feet) or more away from an artificial heating or radiating/ reflecting heat source.

In other words, 9 of every 10 stations are likely reporting higher or rising temperatures because they are badly sited.

It gets worse. We observed that changes in the technology of temperature stations over time also has caused them to report a false warming trend.

We found major gaps in the data record that were filled in with data from nearby sites, a practice that propagates and compounds errors. We found that adjustments to the data by both NOAA and another government agency, NASA, cause recent temperatures to look even higher.

The conclusion is inescapable: The U.S. temperature record is unreliable.

The errors in the record exceed by a wide margin the purported rise in temperature of 0.7o C (about 1.2o F) during the twentieth century. Consequently, this record should not be cited as evidence of any trend in temperature that may have occurred across the U.S. during the past century. Since the U.S. record is thought to be “the best in the world,” it follows that the global database is likely similarly compromised and unreliable.

This report presents actual photos of more than 100 temperature stations in the U.S., many of them demonstrating vividly the siting issues we found to be rampant in the network.

Photographs of all 865 stations that have been surveyed so far can be found at www.surfacestations.org, where station photos can be browsed by state or searched for by name.
 
Neither one of them have a reputation for open-mindedness. They both have an agenda.
Please state Watts’ agenda.

Watts has credentials in the field.

Gore has what has proven out over the years … what amounts to … as nothing, although his beach house is very nice. But it is ON THE BEACH, so his comments on sea level rise seem to be contradicted.
 
Clearly you didn’t read the information contained on www.surfacestations.org

Read it.

It debunks the quality of information derived from surface stations owing to heat sources close to the instruments.

These surface stations tend to be at airports where the accuracy is adequate for flight safety but was not intended for long term scientific studies.

However, the satellite measurements ARE designed for scientific studies and as a result their data are more reliable than surface measurements.

Read the background contained in www.surfacestations.org
Since they are looking at the change in climate, this may not make much, if any, difference.
 
The key word in Lynn’s posting was “change.”
That’s a good one, since skeptics often refer to change in weather as common, ergo climate change is nothing out of the ordinary. 🙂

RE surface stations, here are some good responses to the issue:

Basic: “Microsite influences on temperature changes are minimal; good and bad sites show the same trend.” For more on this read:
skepticalscience.com/microsite-influences-on-global-temperature.htm

Intermediate: “Poor weather stations actually show a cooler trend compared to well sited stations. This is due to instrumentation changes. When this is taken into account, there’s negligible difference between poor and well sited stations.” For more on this read:
skepticalscience.com/microsite-influences-on-global-temperature-intermediate.htm

I used to teach methods and stats and there is really no problem when the errors are random and cancel each other out. Errors are common and expected.

And as mentioned when we’re looking at Δ change then what is important is the amount of change, not whether the number is correct.

What’s interesting is that Surfacestations.org cites RealClimate.org as a resource, but over there they mainly mock Surfacestations.org, which is a creation of Anthony Watts, a weatherman and well-known skeptic full of deception for the unwitting public.
 
they mainly mock Surfacestations.org, which is a creation of Anthony Watts, a weatherman and well-known skeptic full of deception for the unwitting public.
Terminology often amuses. When a meteorologist supports MMGW, he’s a “climate scientist”. When he questions it, he’s a “weatherman”. 🙂
 
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