AIDS may help spread bird flu

[David_Paul]

11-17-05
By Roland Pease
BBC science correspondent

. . . Dr Robert Webster said it was possible people with Aids, who have depressed immune systems, could harbour the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu . . .

. . .Dr Webster, of St Jude Children’s Research Hospital im Memphis, said the key could be when H5N1 reaches East Africa, where HIV/Aids is rife.

He said experience with immune-compromised cancer patients at his hospital had showed they are unable to clear normal flu virus from their systems, and can shed copies of the virus for weeks.

The same could be expected of AIDS patients coming down with H5N1, he said . . .

Reproducing over a long period inside a human would be the ideal conditions for more infectious forms of the virus to develop . . .

The H5N1 virus overstimulates the immune system, and many of its powerful effects are caused by what medical expert call a “cytokine storm”, after the immune molecules excited by the disease . . . Aids patients may be spared that fate.

But equally possible, with their immune defences down, they could succumb easily to the disease.

“In that situation,” said Laurie Garrett, “vast populations of HIV positive people could be obliterated by the pandemic flu.”

full text:

news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4444940.stm

 

[Guar_Fan]

1
The H5N1 virus overstimulates the immune system, and many of its powerful effects are caused by what medical expert call a “cytokine storm”, after the immune molecules excited by the disease . . . Aids patients may be spared that fate.

But equally possible, with their immune defences down, they could succumb easily to the disease.

In other words, we don’t know what will happen.

 

[David_Paul]

We know H5N1 moving into AIDS ravaged regions takes the threat to a new level . We know the confidence some have expressed that those with HIV might have an edge on others is misguided. We know the chances of H-H transmission will not be lessened by the spread of H5N1 to Africa. Many believe H-H is here but simply cannot be confirmed. A few recent comments on the disease:

“The chances of H5N1 causing a pandemic are logarithmically higher than the chances of it not going to cause a pandemic.”
–Klaus Stohr
WHO’s global influenza program

“It is inevitable that we will have a pandemic. I think governments should treat this on a war footing.”
–John Oxford, Professor of Virology at St Mary’s College in London

“No one who lives through it will forget it. If it happens, ordinary life as we know it will cease, probably for about six months.”
–Australia’s health minister, Tony Abbott

'I thought ‘what’s happening to me now? I can’t stand this for a week. It’s too much torture. I felt dizzy and faint. My hands turned pale. It seemed like there was no blood in my body. The next morning I hardly had the energy to walk. I had to crawl out of bed, and I felt as if my body was shriveling By that time I was so weak I could not get up. I felt like my heart was going to stop beating. I felt so exhausted I did not have the energy to speak or pay attention to anything. I felt as if I had been running for days or years and I could not breathe.’
–27 years old Thai survivor Pranom Thongchan
whose sister and niece died of the disease (Bangkok Post).

“In our lifetime, we have not seen a disease sweep through a community and people die so fast that there’s no one to take care of them at the hospital and there’s no one to bury them . . . That’s what will happen in a pandemic. It would be more deaths than all the world’s wars in all of human history. All within the space of six to 18 months . . . The mortuary service would not be able to handle the numbers of dead . . .There would be no place to take them.”
—Dr. Greg Poland,
Mayo Clinic College of Medicine

“It would hit you and you would be dead before you knew it. We are worried that a new pandemic might turn out to be Force 10 on the Richter scale of new emerging viruses on humans.”
–Maria Zambom. UK Health Protection Agency

“I guess I feel vindicated. The whole thing is taking place in slow motion. What I’ve thought about all my life is actually taking place. Will it achieve its final step? I don’t know, but it looks as though it will.”
– Robert Webster
St. Jude’s Medical Center

 

[Lizzie]

Countries that prepare and take precautions will be far better able to manage such a problem.

 

[David_Paul]

Lizzie . . . as you know, in the end it comes down to how well your local community is prepared. If there is a pandemic, the Federal and State governments cannot handle it. I wish the churches would become involved now in planning. Perhaps things are being done but the reaction I mostly see on religious forums is “This isn’t a threat” or “The government hasn’t done enough to prepare for the threat”.

Don’t have to be a survivalist to prepare for the worst H5N1 could do. Most things needed people buy anyways. All that is needed is to start putting away a few more items. A good policy paper on what should be done is here at George Mason Univeristy. The executive summery is good but the full PDF download is better

 

[Lizzie]

David_Paul:

Lizzie . . . as you know, in the end it comes down to how well your local community is prepared. If there is a pandemic, the Federal and State governments cannot handle it. I wish the churches would become involved now in planning. Perhaps things are being done but the reaction I mostly see on religious forums is “This isn’t a threat” or “The government hasn’t done enough to prepare for the threat”.

Don’t have to be a survivalist to prepare for the worst H5N1 could do. Most things needed people buy anyways. All that is needed is to start putting away a few more items. A good policy paper on what should be done is here at George Mason Univeristy. The executive summery is good but the full PDF download is better

I have bookmarked the PDF from George Mason.

You are so right in emphasizing the primary focus of personal and local responsibility. Becoming informed and taking precautions are cautions all should take.