From
cara.georgetown.edu/CARAServices/requestedchurchstats.html
I took from 2014, 3631 graduated seminarians per 494 ordained priests. The ratio in the other years doesn’t seem to be that much different.
And I presume these priestly ordination includes religious as well as diocesan priests. (12k vs 26k priests presently, total)
If I’m interpreting the CARA numbers incorrectly, I’d like to know.
OK. Now I know where the number came from.
Those 2 numbers “graduate-level seminarians” and “priests ordained in that year” really cannot be compared to each other to make a ratio.
If we look at a traditional 4-year college, we can assume a fairly constant admissions rate over the years (barring something like an expansion of the college or a dramatic drop in applicants). So, every year, there will be roughly 25% each of freshmen, sophomores, juniors and seniors. So, we expect roughly 25% will graduate each year.
1 out of every 4 of the student body.
Seminary doesn’t work that way.
Graduate level seminary training can be anywhere from 3 years to as much as 12 years. It depends on how much, and what type of undergraduate college each applicant might have (someone who has a BA in philosophy will need less graduate-level classes than one who has a BS in biology, someone who has a Masters in Theology before applying to the seminary will need even less time). Those in religious orders usually take longer than diocesan candidates because more time is needed for formation into the charisms and lifestyle of that particular order.
There was a link to another article about the Diocese of Madison where the diocese states that their graduate-level seminary takes between 8 and 10 years. That seems to be in the higher end of the spectrum.
For that reason, we cannot look at those 2 numbers (graduate-level seminarians & this year’s ordinations) and draw any meaningful conclusions from the comparison—on a national level.
If we wanted to do that, we would have to break-down the total number of graduate-level seminarians into years—in other words, class of '15, class of '20, class of '25, etc.
So, if we look at the statistic that says “there were 494 priests ordained in 2013,” we have to ask "over the years, how many seminarians actually joined the class of 2013 over the previous 12 years?
Those statistics aren’t kept on a national level.