A
ateista
Guest
Are you serious? Would you bet your life on this illusion? Are you willing to try a “sand-diet”?Maybe his death is only within his perception and experience of reality and not in the true reality.
I don’t see why. Mind you, I don’t “reject” God. I simply do not believe that a “supernatural entity” exists. Even the word “exists” is undefined here. Your question is just another version of Pascal’s wager.My point was that it seems foolish to me to reject God for philosophical reasons and at the same time maintain that our minds are not necessarily accurate.
Not exactly. A winner is not “chosen”. The numbers are chosen and the more people play the more likely it is that someone will get lucky. More about this subject in the next paragraphs.No matter how many people play lottery, a winner will be chosen. In the atheistic model, no one is trying or planning to choose a winner. It could just as easily have no winner at all, and when you count the odds of both the people playing and the fact that no one is planning on picking a winner, the odds become extreme.
Very well. It is my perception that you are not a mathematician. I will try to make this simple and if you need clarification, let me know.I would enjoy reading it if you are inclined to write it, but if not, that’s okay.
The problem as you stated is something like this:
There is a very unlikely event that has actually occurred (the emergence of human minds capable of abstract, philosophical thinking) and you find it unlikely that mere chance is a sufficient explanation for this.
The whole question boils down to the “surprise-factor”. Fortunately the “surprise” can be defined quite easily.
Let’s start with an example. Suppose you have a box with 100 balls in it, and every ball has a number on it. You don’t know what those numbers are. You reach into the box and pull out one ball, and it has the value of “17” on it. How “surprising” is this event?
This question cannot be answered, unless you know what are the actual numbers on all of the balls.
Suppose the balls have the numbers from 1 to 100. The result of “17” is not surprising, it could have been any number from 1 to a 100. Suppose that every ball has a “2” on them, except one, which has “17” on it. The result then would be quite surprising, the most likely event would be “2” - obviously. Suppose all the balls have a “17” on them, with one exception, which has a “2” on it. The result is is not surprising at all.
And this is the point. Just because an event occurred, the “surprise factor” cannot be decided, unless we have information about all the possible outcomes. And that is missing.
I know you find it “intuitively” surprising, but probability theory is not intuitive at all.
Let’s take another example: suppose you heard that someone tossed a coin many times and the result was this:
“TTTHTTTTHTTTTTHHHHHHHHHTTHHHHHHTTTTTHHHTTTTT…”
Would you find this surprising? Probably not. If the result you see is this, however:
“TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT…”
you would find it extremely surprising. The point is that in the first example you see no regularities, in the second one you do (this is called the “odometer syndrome”). But the first one has regularities, too: the number of heads and tails is an encoding of the value of “pi”: (3.14159265358979323846). It is just as surprising.
The problem is that any sequence of “T” and “H” is equally probable. What would be surprising is the ability to predict any outcome. That is the difference between a-priori and a-posteriori probabilities.
The a-posteriori probabilities are meaningless. What happened, happened. And that is the problem with the probability based approach.
That intelligent life appeared somewhere in this immensely large universe is not surprising at all. With the number of galaxies, stars, planetary systems and the possible life-forms (life does not have to carbon based) and the billions of years elapsed, the probability that an unlikely event happened somewhere and sometime is virtually one.
I repeat: Earth is the lucky guy who won on the cosmic lottery. Every lucky player who wins a jackpot is “alone” at the point of winning. Just as it is not surprising that a lottery winner will emerge once every couple of weeks - because of the millions of players, it is equally not surprising that the trillions upon trillions of “experiments” eventually “created” us, the beings who are capable of abstract thinking.
If you need more information, let me know. (As luck would have it, I used to be a math professor, and lectured probability theory for many years.) I know that it is not an easy concept.