Biden's Great Leap Forward: A split second in Wisconsin

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November 14, 2020

Biden’s Great Leap Forward: A split second in Wisconsin​

By Dan Rabil

I live in Switzerland and was working at my computer the morning after the U.S. election when I was stunned to see the Fox election map suddenly do something completely unnatural: in a split second between 3 A.M. and 4 A.M. U.S. Central Time, the Wisconsin icon switched from light-red Trump to light-blue Biden. In that same instant, the probability meter, which had been very accurate in 2016, likewise jerked from a 77% Trump likelihood to over 80% Biden.

Maybe it’s because most Americans did not watch it happen live as I did, but I have since wondered why this bizarre moment — Biden’s Great Leap Forward — has not been widely mentioned.

So I decided to find that late-night moment of Biden’s Blue Miracle in the voting results database. The database is sent from the supplier to the New York Times, and here is the link for the Wisconsin data: https://static01.nyt.com/elections-...2020-11-03/race-page/wisconsin/president.json.

In the screen shot below is the moment I saw happen in real time at 3:42:20 (“Z” or Zulu Time is six hours ahead of Wisconsin time), as the lead changed from a 3.6% Trump lead to a 0.3% Biden lead . . . .

. . . Note that within the first 40 minutes after Wisconsin’s vote counts began publishing at 8 P.M., Trump established a lead that basically held steady at around 51% to 47% for the next seven hours, as the total count climbed to nearly 3 million votes.

Note also that the two candidates remained fairly close throughout the night as the count rose from about 500,000 to 3 million, implying that this was not a case of Trump getting huge in-person numbers, only to have them erased by slightly more huge Biden mail-in numbers, as the Democrat media would have you believe. Rather, Biden voters appeared to have slogged to the polls and early vote drop-off bins as much as anyone else, contrary to the notion that they cowered in fear of COVID and all voted by mail.

Everything was quiet as occasional vote updates trickled in: 2,200 ballots at 2:20 A.M.; 5,900 votes at 3:08 A.M. Suddenly, 170,000 votes — 5% of the total state count — came crashing in in one dump (there were over 340 data time series delivered, making this one 17 times larger than average). Trump had been ahead by 108,000 votes at 3:42 A.M., only to be behind by 9,000 votes an instant later. (With 99% of the vote counted and the state called for Biden, the basement-dwelling candidate had a 20,000-vote lead.)

In summary: With the ballot count approaching 3 million out of a total of less than 3.3 million recorded, the worst presidential candidate in history, who could barely get his tired body across the Delaware state line for a 60-person “rally,” at 3:42 A.M. on the night of the election bagged a net of 118,215 votes in a single massive data dump to take a narrow lead. And that lead then just stayed nice and steady till the count slowly finished eight days later.

The statistical word for this is bullfeathers.

 
My first reaction was Milwaukee probably reported their vote. Looking at the datasource he cited for Milwaukee numbers, we see Biden got 317251 while Trump got 134355. (I have bolded the line with vote count for those who do not like reading gibberish. I think these are the right numbers). Whenever Milwaukee reported their votes, the statewide count suddenly would get 182996 more for Biden than Trump.

Shifts like this happen all the time in elections. Milwaukee has 478 precincts reporting votes, more than any other county I would think, which explains reporting later than other counties. (Menominee has 2 precincts for its 1500 votes, I bet it does not take long to compile their results.)

Who are these people you are posting? They seem pretty clueless about how elections work.
{“fips”:“55079”,“name”:“Milwaukee”,“votes”:458935,“absentee_votes”:0,“reporting”:478,“precincts”:478,“absentee_method”:“Merged into voters’ home precincts and released with cumulative results”,“eevp”:100,“tot_exp_vote”:458935,“eevp_value”:“>98%”,“eevp_display”:“>98% reported”,“eevp_source”:“edison”,“turnout_stage”:6,“absentee_count_progress”:“unknown”,“absentee_outstanding”:null,“absentee_max_ballots”:182432,“provisional_outstanding”:null,“provisional_count_progress”:null,“results”:
{“bidenj”:317251,“trumpd”:134355,“jorgensenj”:4339,"
write-ins":1617,“carrollb”:750,“blankenshipd”:623},“results_absentee”:{“bidenj”:0,“trumpd”:0,“jorgensenj”:0,“write-ins”:0,“carrollb”:0,“blankenshipd”:0},“last_updated”:“2020-11-14T16:38:36Z”,“leader_margin_value”:39.85227,“leader_margin_display”:“D+40”,“leader_margin_name_display”:“Biden +40”,“leader_party_id”:“democrat”,“margin2020”:-39.85227,“votes2016”:441053,“margin2016”:-36.9,“votes2012”:492576,“margin2012”:-36.04},
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Shifts like this happen all the time in elections.
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With 400,000 votes a close to 3 to 1 ratio does NOT “happen all the time” with candidates polling neck and neck.
 
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Cathoholic said:
Shifts like this happen all the time in elections.
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You are right. Milwaukee has been 2 to 1 in the last few presidential elections, not 3 to 1.

Big cities often have huge margins like this. The absentee ballots from Philadelphia were 9 to 1, much better than the 4 to 1 in the rest of the state. Many states have to wait for big cities to submit their results before they have any idea how the election will go. Three of NYC’s boroughs voted 80% or more for Biden.

This is normal.
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Cathoholic said:
Everything was quiet as occasional vote updates trickled in: 2,200 ballots at 2:20 A.M.; 5,900 votes at 3:08 A.M. Suddenly, 170,000 votes — 5% of the total state count — came crashing in in one dump (there were over 340 data time series delivered, making this one 17 times larger than average). Trump had been ahead by 108,000 votes at 3:42 A.M., only to be behind by 9,000 votes an instant later. (With 99% of the vote counted and the state called for Biden, the basement-dwelling candidate had a 20,000-vote lead.
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This also happened in PA did it not - all at once. Strange election is right.
 
Dovekin to Cathoholic . . .
You are right.
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Thank you.
Big cities often have huge margins like this.
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Put up a few from past elections please. Not using places like Chicago and Philidelphia that have reputations for cheating.

But say, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami, or other big cities.
I want to see where there is a neck and neck election on late into the night, then Democrats start getting votes 3:1 over Republicans.

This should be very easy if “it happens all the time”.
 
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Here are a few, from Politico’s site where they have election results broken down by county. Vote counts Clinton/Trump with % Clinton/Trump. I included Sherman County Oregon, which went for Trump 73%, but notice there are no k in the number of votes. 928 voters in Sherman while Multnomah had 334,000. It just takes longer in the more populated areas than in the smaller counties, so reports come in later.

Georgia 2016
Fulton Cty (Atlanta) 281k/110k 69/27%
Dekalb Cty 239k/47k. 80/16%

Florida 2016
Miami Dade 623k/333k 63/34%
Broward 546k/259k. 67/31%

Oregon 2016
Multnomah (Portland) 271k/63k. 76/17%
Sherman 202/726 20/73%

New York 2016
Bronx 318k/34k 89/10%
NY (Manhattan) 515k/59k 87/10%
Queens 473k/138k. 75/22%

Colorado 2016
Denver 170k/42k 75/18%
 
Everyone cheats. The whole American election is a game of who can rig the election better. The Republicans just lost this time.
 
ProVobis . . .
The Republicans outside Chicago cheat. I know this firsthand.
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Then join me in calling for election reform that makes it much more difficult to cheat.

Let’s get after those doggone Republicans.

Voter ID. In-person voting with few exceptions. No computer voting. Etc. etc.
 
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Cathoholic . . .
I want to see where there is a neck and neck election on late into the night, then Democrats start getting votes 3:1 over Republicans.
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Dovkin. That was only part of the story.

Were the Republicans leading by a significant margin? Even after a substantial amount of votes were in at midnight EST?

Then close down for four hours or so?

Then when the counting resumed, had Democrats with a substantial lead?

Then the returns AFTER that reverted back to the ratios they had BEFORE the vote was “shut down”??

Surely this is going to be easy for you because you said it happens all the time.

So I am waiting. . . .
 
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“This doesn’t happen in a normal election!”

Due to the pandemic and the accommodations made for voting, this wasn’t a normal election.

“But this doesn’t happen in a normal election!”

I can’t wait for another four years of this…
 
Am I the only one who finds it inappropriate to use the name of a massive famine that killed millions for this?

It’s like saying Biden’s final solution. Just leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
 
FrankFletcher said:
“This doesn’t happen in a normal election!”

Due to the pandemic and the accommodations made for voting, this wasn’t a normal election.
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I was told it DOES happen in a normal election.

So I want to see it.
 
Yes, and you keep saying it doesn’t happen. At the end of the day, none of Trump’s lawsuits have moved forward and skeptics aren’t basing their responses on reality. It’s increasingly a bad look for conservatives.
 
FrankFletcher said:
It’s increasingly a bad look for conservatives.
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Those doggone conservatives deserve a “bad look”.
That’ll put em in their place.

Meanwhile there is a larger principle here that is important.

And if we can get after those conservatives, while straightening out this voter fraud mess, all the better huh Frank?
 
I am a conservative, sir. I’m just not desperately clinging to fantasies.
 
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