Some of those are healthy people who choose not to purchase coverage. The lower tier under the Republicans would be sick people who won’t be able to afford proper care or the tens of millions who are projected to lose their coverage.
Ensuring a level playing field for all presents enormous obstacles, not the least of which is employment-based coverage. It cost less per capita for the same product in the “private market” (which is not so private anymore anyway). That’s due to the “well worker effect”. If you’re very sick, you can’t work, so you go out of the employment-based system.
And yet, people who have it like it, and would like it even more if it returned to the status quo ante Obamacare when it didn’t have all of the mandates. That’s a huge number of people; approximately half the population.
So are the Dems really prepared to undo the greatest inequity of all and infuriate half the population? I don’t think so. And are the elderly going to be pitched off Medicare into a single payer system resembling Medicaid? Adding the two groups together, that’s most of the population.
“Medicare for all” or even “Medicaid for all” is an interesting slogan, but it’s just a slogan. Both Medicare and Medicaid benefits are “discounts” to the market. Medicaid reimbursement is about 1/3 of regular pricing, and Medicare is about 2/3. So the discounts can’t continue if the whole country is on one or both.
Obamacare deftly sidesteps those problems for the most part. For the elderly, there is no change of substance, though Obamacare originally called for the end of Medicare Advantage. It puts about 17 million more people on Medicaid, some of whom would have had employment-based insurance and probably aren’t happy about this outcome.
The rest either dodge the system and pay the penalty (or don’t). There are undoubtedly millions of those folks. Or they are stuck in the “exchanges”; an income-redistribution plan whereby some are subsidized and some are not, but all are in a high-cost-per-person “pool” that’s really devastating to those who aren’t subsidized and to some of those who are only partially subsidized. It’s a high cost pool because it has millions of reasonably healthy people pooled with a lot who are not; in a pool that does not reflect the risk of the population at large, but is much higher.
Perhaps if the country really doesn’t want to return to the previous system, in which the great majority were happy with what they had but in which some just didn’t have insurance at all and couldn’t get it, the only answer is to deliberately create the “two tiers”.
One would be “Mega-Medicaid”; same thing but with more people. The rest would be the free market. As is the case in most countries that have “tiers”, the quality would be in the latter, but that just seems to be inevitable.
It would be best if the two tier system was cost-analyzed and put to a plebescite. "Understanding your taxes will go up by “X”, and people making under “Y” or who are uninsurable will go on Medicaid, do you support “MediTier”?
I have no idea how the vote would come out, but my guess is that it would fail.