Brexit will be decided over a dinner table in Brussels

[Vouthon]

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/10/uk/brexit-brussels-luke-mcgee-uk-intl-gbr/index.html

The sheer weirdness of Brexit might be best described by the odd spectacle that will take place in Brussels on Wednesday evening.

The UK is the world’s fifth largest economy. It is a nuclear-armed state with a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. It has a world-class services industry and a population of more than 60 million people.

Malta, by contrast, is the world’s 124th largest economy. It has, according to Eurostat, a population of under 500,000 people.

Yet at around 6:45 p.m. local time, Joseph Muscat, the Prime Minister of Malta, will have a greater say in the ultimate outcome of the UK’s future than Theresa May, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Because, Muscat, unlike May, will have a seat at the dinner table along with other EU leaders where the future of Brexit will be thrashed out.

The UK’s inability to agree on a political level how it wishes to leave the EU has caused the Brexit deadline, March 29, to be missed once already. The fact that the House of Commons rejected May’s Brexit deal a third time on that very day has led to the unedifying events that will follow in Brussels a little later.

The problem Brexit faces now is that there’s no road left to kick the can down – or at least, not without consequences. The new Brexit deadline, April 12, was decided upon because it is the latest point at which the UK must declare its intention to stand in European Parliamentary elections or not. If the UK is still an EU member state on May 23, then it must field candidates in that poll.

While this might seem a matter of huge embarrassment for May, it is a matter of even greater concern for the EU. In the days since May’s letter to Tusk became public, hardline Brexiteers have said that, should the UK remain stuck in the union at this point, then it will "become a Trojan horse within the EU."

This isn’t just tough talk from sore losers: as a full member state with MEPs sitting in Brussels and Strasbourg, the UK will have full member state rights. It will be able to have (name removed by moderator)ut in EU projects – and crucially budgets – with little blowback.

But what May wants and May gets have to date been very different things. At the moment, the thinking in Brussels is that the extension will be granted, but it will be much longer than June 30.

However, other EU leaders are less satisfied with this. Emmanuel Macron, the French President, has been visibly frustrated by the oxygen Brexit is sucking out of European politics. While no one expects him to push for a no deal, it is no secret that in his eyes – and not his alone – there are worse outcomes than a no deal. One of those outcomes might be a Trojan-horse UK.

This summit was called on March 29, as the first Brexit deadline disappeared. On Friday, it’s possible another will disappear. The UK’s future is being decided miles from London. It must be horrible to be a Brexiteer right now.

 

[Vouthon]

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-04-10/brexit-and-may-could-both-be-over-if-uk-leaving-eu-is-delayed-a-year

It would be embarrassing for the UK to participate in the European Parliamentary Elections, but only for the Tories would it be worse than an embarrassment - Labour would probably do well under a PR voting system that would allow those who want a people’s vote to back an opposition party that has moved in their direction.

So a year’s Brexit delay would in effect give permission - emotional and psychological - for a more open, honest and less time-sensitive debate about what kind of Brexit the British people actually want, and whether they in practice want Brexit at all.

At that juncture, a further referendum would move from being the least likely outcome to the most likely.

So for the avoidance of doubt, if EU leaders force a year’s Brexit delay on the UK, even if garnished with the option for the UK of being able to leave earlier (if miraculously preparations for Brexit can be achieved earlier), the EU would be voting to usher in a new British prime minister and probably to extinguish Brexit.

Yesterday I assumed - guided both by their officials and my experience and judgement - that EU leaders would not wish to make a decision that had such historic consequences.

I may well have been wrong - partly because May herself has already signalled her early departure, and because she has formally allowed a Brexit role for an opposition Labour Party whose commitment to leaving the EU has been weakening by the hour.

Or to put it another way, EU leaders may well be able to reassure themselves that a long Brexit delay is going with the grain of history, not changing it.