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SonofMonica
Guest
I did watch your video, and I find it practically untenable.Not at all… Back to your original reply:
There is evidence of people winning the lottery. Why do people play then, when they won’t win because the odds are so ridiculously bad? Because people are very bad at assessing things, as my other link about eye witness testimony also pointed out. (Of course some one will win, but statistically your chances are pretty much zero - the fact that some one wins is what tricks our rationale).
Why in the world would I believe the testimony of people that claimed such extraordinary things? Especially considering these people didn’t understand much of what we know today - a time when it was widely believed that the Earth was flat and a geocentric universe was assumed and the people that wrote down all the history of the subject didn’t even witness the events?
My video was on why we can’t trust anecdotal evidence and my link was on how eye witness testimony is technically one of the least trustworthy forms of evidence. Probability has nothing to do with it. It’s the fact that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Watch this, I think this explains it pretty well:
youtube.com/watch?v=zfAzaDyae-k&feature=popt00us0b
With regard to the lottery, though, your premise is false. The only way that you “won’t win” is if you don’t play. You’re teaching against evolutionary theory (which I subscribe to) when you claim that something with extraordinarily high odds can’t happen.