Thank you for that well-written column from Bishop Paprocki.
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I totally agree. It’s not simple.
But before making any moral judgments, let’s actually analyze the situation given the
factual basis as I’ve laid it out. I welcome any data anyone else has found.
Fact 1:
Taussig (1931) estimated that annually, there were 700,000 abortions per year. In the abstract of his piece, he says, “
All efforts to control the incidence of criminal abortion by legislation have resulted in failure.” He wrote when abortion was illegal everywhere. Some of those were what we would now call a “spontaneous abortion,” but he mostly focuses on “criminal abortion.” He also published a book in 1910
The Prevention and Treatment of Abortion which says (on page 5) that “
Furthermore, I should be inclined to add as a reason for the frequency of abortions at this time the fact, that usually it is not until the second period has been passed, that women feel so sure of being pregnant as to be willing to submit to instrumental interference. The reason seems especially weighty when we consider the fact that such criminal interference is probably the direct cause of almost half of all abortions.”
This suggests that abortion rates in the 1930s were between 50% and >100% of today’s.
Fact 2: Cytotec is a stomach ulcer drug that includes a black-box warning that it’s an abortifacient. So it’s being sold throughout the world, including in Texas flea markets as a way to do a “
DIY abortion.” In 2010,
Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times wrote:
“Could the decades-long global impasse over abortion worldwide be overcome — by little white pills costing less than $1 each? That seems possible, for these pills are beginning to revolutionize abortion around the world, especially in poor countries.”
Fact 3: If Roe v. Wade is overturned, the legal status of abortion becomes a state matter. In many states abortion will remain legal, and it doesn’t take many to see a U.S. where the majority of abortions remain legal. CA+NY+IL+MA+MD+OR+WA and statistically speaking, you’re there.
Fact 4: Between 1971-1972, New York state made abortion legal. As reported in
Joyce et al. (2012), NY had an abortion rate (per 1,000 women aged 15-44) of 29.4. Abortion remained illegal in neighboring states, but the rate of abortions performed in New York state on their residents increased: 15.2 in New Jersey, 10.3 in Connecticut and Massachusetts, 8.7 in New Hampshire, 8.4 in Vermont, 7.6 in Michigan and Maine, 5.9 in Illinois and Florida (average distance 990 miles). Women traveled long distances to get abortions in New York.
To this point in this post, I have not said anything about what
should happen, only what science has told us has happened and is happening. So I’m not doing anything described by His Excellency’s next sentence, because I have not at this point made a moral argument.
Some who try to navigate this labyrinth of moral analysis simply rationalize their way to a desired conclusion, for example, by saying that voting for a pro-choice candidate is justified by their support for other “social justice” causes.
My argument, which is not a moral argument, is that overturning Roe v. Wade will have a quantitative benefit in reducing abortion rates that is likely to be quite small if at all measurable, because illegal abortions will be unreported.
Reaching a similar conclusion, Joyce et al., cited above, also estimated using statistical models that if the 31 states expected to prohibit abortion did so if Roe v. Wade is overturned, the abortion rate would fall by 14.9% annually. If only 17 states did the ban, abortion rate would fall by 6.0% annually. Joyce et al. did not include Cytotec, nor address the lower costs of travel since the early 1970s, nor other new drugs such as “the morning after pill” (referred to as emergency contraception), which may not be outlawed by overturning Roe v. Wade.
Connecticut v. Griswold and
Eisenstadt v. Baird are still there.
If you want to argue with what I’ve said thus far, which is solely a descriptive argument, not a moral argument, please provide some data to counter anything I have said thus far. I welcome any facts you present. Someone may not like the information I’ve presented, but that doesn’t make it untrue.