China Trade thread

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www.realclearpolicy.com

Five Facts: The US-China Trade War | RealClearPolicy

Today, the U.S-China trade war continues unabated. This increases the risk of slowing the global economy, IMF Chief Christine Lagarde warned last week. Leaders at a G-20 meeting in Japan expressed...
www.realclearpolicy.com www.realclearpolicy.com

Here are the bullets, see link for supporting detail

1. one in five U.S. companies claims that Chinese companies have stolen their intellectual property within the past year.

2. profits of state firms are hitting record highs as the number of entities under government control have decreased.

3. A major point of contention in U.S-China trade talks is the practice of technology transfer in which U.S. companies are forced to turn over their tech secrets to Chinese partners as a condition of gaining access to the country’s enormous market.

4. Right now there is a heated race to pioneer 5G, or fifth-generation mobile networks, and China has the leading edge

5. According to the Economic Policy Institute, 3.4 million U.S. jobs were lost between 2001 and 2017 because of the U.S. trade deficit with China.
 

One trade official close to the case said so much of the ruling had gone against Beijing that it had opted to pull the plug before the result became official.
“They lost so much that they didn’t even want the world to see the panel’s reasoning,” the official said.

Without a WTO ruling in Beijing’s favor, the EU and United States can keep imposing duties on cheap imports from China while disregarding its claim that they are fairly priced.
 
Very interesting article. The first couple sentences are well reiterated in the rest of the document. The author pointed out that it isn’t the U.S. or China that will benefit, but those with even more efficient methods of production. They mentioned Mexico and India (which have had additional tariffs out on them), but I suspect other countries, especially Southeast Asian countries will pick up the slack. It certainly won’t be the Rust Belt or the Sun Belt or the Midwest United States.
 
sallybutler said:
The first couple sentences are well reiterated in the rest of the document. The author pointed out that it isn’t the U.S. or China that will benefit, but those with
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In the short term, this is true. But not the long term.

If China opens up and starts to act like an adult, it will benefit US exports and US mfg. But we will still import all the stuff that requires low wages to be competitive. Until then, why not let Thailand and Vietnam grow their economies.
 
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Theo520 said:
According to the Economic Policy Institute, 3.4 million U.S. jobs were lost between 2001 and 2017 because of the U.S. trade deficit with China.
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Not only that. For some manufacturers, China requires that the product be manufactured in China to be sold in China. So while the company makes money, Americans lose jobs. Caterpillar is a very good example of this problem. Machines to be sold in China must be made in China.
 
I don’t like the fact that the trade war will increase prices but I do hope that maybe it will influence China to change their ways and become a more free nation and to become less repressive. Perhaps they will stop persecuting Christians and other religious minorities in a bid to see these tariffs and such eliminated.
 
It’s good to see actual data on the effects of the trade war, as opposed to theoretical costs to US consumers, that likely won’t occur.

This is why targeted tariffs will work to influence China and minimize pain on US consumers

www.statista.com

Infographic: U.S. Imports From Vietnam Surge at China's Expense

This chart shows the percentage change in U.S. goods imports from its top import partners from January through September 2019 compared to the same period of last year.
www.statista.com www.statista.com

(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)
 
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I think Trump will close this just before the election.
If China waits till after the election, the terms will be less forgiving.

www.nbcnews.com

China trade deal about 90 percent done, says Mnuchin

The outcome of the upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi is widely seen as pivotal for the global economy and financial markets.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
 
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The great likelihood is that Vietnam will never be a threat to the U.S. And since Vietnamese have a remarkably positive view of the U.S., they’re unlikely to change. But I hope we don’t end up with equally bad trade imbalances, just with countries other than China.

And I sure hope we can eliminate some of the “imperialistic” trade practices of our trading “partners”; arrangements in which we provide commodities to them while they provide manufactured goods to us.
 
sallybutler said:
How is China paying for the Federal subsidies to farmers?
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the jpg was inaccurate but humorous, probably reflecting sentimentality. Tariffs are paid by the importers.

Lost export sales is the consequence, as that business goes to other low cost producers.
 
Cool. It’s a Monday and I don’t think my brain wants to kick in yet 🙂
 
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