Clinton Up 6 on Trump in Two-Way Race in Bloomberg National Poll

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Hillary Clinton… I don’t want Trump anywhere near the WH!
 
What is the sample of the poll? What is its makeup of Democrats, Republicans and Independents? For example, the recent Washington Post/ABC poll had a sample of Democrats that was nearly double than what the actual turnout advantage was that Democrats had in 2012 at what I believe was +6. Is that a poll that should be taken seriously?

Check out what James Carville says about the polls who worked on Bill Clinton’s campaign in this article published August 5th: usnews.com/news/articles/2016-08-05/hillary-clintons-newest-challenge-great-expectations

Dukakis had “17 point lead” coming out his convention against Bush in 1988: politico.com/magazine/gallery/2013/11/how-bush-beat-dukakis-000005?slide=0
 
Two-way polls without a party sample size breakdown before the debates are pretty meaningless.
 
SuperLuigi said:
Two-way polls without a party sample size breakdown before the debates are pretty meaningless.
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Party sample size? Do you mean an even distribution of Libertarian, Republican, Democratic etc. voters?
 
_Abyssinia said:
What is the sample of the poll? What is its makeup of Democrats, Republicans and Independents? For example, the recent Washington Post/ABC poll had a sample of Democrats that was nearly double than what the actual turnout advantage was that Democrats had in 2012 at what I believe was +6. Is that a poll that should be taken seriously?
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Given that 6 out of 10 Americans hate or dislike both Hilary and Donald, how can any poll not showing this statistic be even remotely accurate?
 
Incidentally, the margin of error in any poll given a totally random sample (rarely achieved) is given by the square root of (p x (1-p))/sample size). p is tough to explain but given the situation, using p as 1/2 is acceptable for Clinton vs Trump at this point.
 
_Abyssinia said:
What is the sample of the poll? What is its makeup of Democrats, Republicans and Independents?
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Sample size for the Bloomberg poll in the o.p: 1007 adults age 18 or over
Party affiliation: Rep 25% Dem 27% Ind 42% Other 3%
 
Never know what to make of these polls. The media is making it look like Trump is imploding, and yet I don’t know one person who’s changed there mind and said “Now he’s gone too far, I have no other choice but to vote for Hillary” If anything, Trump supporters I know, are sick of the media. The media keeps putting something out there every day for us in hopes will turn against Trump, and the funny thing is that they made very little out of what I thought was one of his most cringe worthy moments “Kaitlyn (Bruce) Jenner can use whatever washroom she want’s to at Trump Towers” There’s as much chance of us turning against Trump as there is of Hillary’s supporters turning on her.
 
Seamus_L said:
Never know what to make of these polls. The media is making it look like Trump is imploding, and yet I don’t know one person who’s changed there mind and said “Now he’s gone too far, I have no other choice but to vote for Hillary” If anything, Trump supporters I know, are sick of the media. The media keeps putting something out there every day for us in hopes will turn against Trump, and the funny thing is that they made very little out of what I thought was one of his most cringe worthy moments “Kaitlyn (Bruce) Jenner can use whatever washroom she want’s to at Trump Towers” There’s as much chance of us turning against Trump as there is of Hillary’s supporters turning on her.
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I’m not sure it’s the media. It’s the direct quotes. And the tweets. And the interviews.

I’m not understanding the loyalty.
 
Trump definitely has a hostile press environment. However he has been making them a target of his attacks for over a year so I don’t know why he would be surprised by this.

He needs to be very careful in what he says (and he isn’t.)

If he pulls this off, a lot of people will be surprised, including me.

Having said that, it is not Labor Day yet. A lot of people haven’t decided.
 
Hillary Clinton is ahead right now even in this poll in CAF (12 to 11). I’m pretty surprised!
 
I think most of these articles are pushing a false dichotomy.

A lot of Hillary support is really just “Not Trump” and vice versa for some of Trump’s support. This could be the first election in decades voters of both parties defect to a third party.
 
The election is slowly happening right now. These polls by the privately owned media are designed to promote their favorite candidate over the other for gullible voters. Everyone loves a winner, herd mentality. The only real “poll” that SHOULD matter is election day. Polls can be easily skewed so why publish them now?

My public school teachers accused Russia’s newspaper Pravda for pushing propaganda in the 80s. The hypocrisy of our media is no better. I’d like to go back and discuss today’s hypocrisy with those teachers. The media is under no real obligation to be neutral. The Journalistic oath is a joke. Just ask liar Candy Crowley, LOL.
 
_Abyssinia said:
The Bloomberg poll has them at 42% in their poll sample… why?! I doubt Independents have increased by 13 points in under four years?!
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There are different numbers but all sources agree “independents” have been increasing steadily for decades. It’s not fashionable to say you’re affiliated with a party, or some people think parties are moving away from their core values. But most of the people who identify as “independent” still lean pretty heavily towards one party, only 5-10% of voters are actually independent.

It’s not a new thing, there’s a book from 1992 called The Myth of the Independent Voter that investigates the phenomenon. If you google that phrase you will find more recent articles that look at current data. I don’t know about 2012 but several surveys have pegged around 40% of people identifying as independent this go-around.
 
Trump, and some of his supporters, are doing exactly what Romney did in 2012 and it (helped) cost him the election. They, too, kept saying the polls were skewed and it turned out that they really weren’t. Sure, there were discrepencies and some were more accurate than others but, by and large, they were right. If anything, Obama won some close states by more than predicted because the Obama organization on the ground out performed the Romney ground team. While the Romney team was was telling themselves the polls were wrong, the Obama team was out in the field working their tails off to make sure the polls were right. Even Romney’s people admit that now.

That’s the truly under-reported story of this election-Trumps abysmal, practically non-existent ground game. There are swing states where Trump has yet to open field offices and other states where he has one or two offices but they are hardly staffed. Meanwhile, in those same states, Hillary has dozens of offices fully staffed with workers registering new voters (who usually don’t show up in these polls at all) and coordinating neighborhood teams to get their voters to the polls. I read a little article in a California paper recently that said Hillary had so many volunteers there they were sending them to Nevada to help register voters in Hispanic communities. So while Trump is scrambling to catch-up in the much needed purple states, Hillary is expanding operations into red states.

I actually think, based on Trumps poor ground game, these polls may be underestimating Hillary’s ultimate victory margin. He still has time to improve his ground game, and there is talk that that is on the front burner, but it’s getting a bit late for that. Early voting starts soon in some of the states where Trump has yet to even open an office! You can bet Hillary’s team is all over that. That hurts his best chance of winning, an October surprise, because by October Hillary will have already “banked” millions of votes through early voting while Trump is still playing catch-up on the basics.
 
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